Methuselahic Malfeasance?

The Seattle Mariners proudly re-signed Jamie Moyer to complete the offseason task of resigning its four top free agent today. Moyer landed a deal which will pay him between $15.5 and $21.5 M, depending on his performance, over the next three years. He also represented himself to pocket a little extra change. Moyer pitched well this year and was pursued by a few other teams. I'm not sure what the other teams offered but I was very surprised that the M's offered three years. Why, do you ask? Well, Moyer will be turning 43 just as the contract expires in three years. The other three ancient Mariners who were just resigned are Dan Wilson, Edgar Martinez, and John Olerud, and the average age of the four of them is 37.

It got me to wondering about the prospects of resigning a 40-year-old for three years, even one that won 13 games, were. There was a good bit of press explaining why giving future Hall-of-Famer a four-year contract was a bad idea since he would be forty when said contract expired. Given that Moyer is something short of a Hall-of-Fame caliber pitcher and will be 40 when the contract starts, I am left wondering why there hasn't been a great deal of backlash. ESPN touts it has the fulfillment of Seattle's offseason plan.

Well, here is a list of all pitchers, 40 in total, who won 10 or more games at the age of 39 followed by their performance in the next three years:

Name                 **Age 39**     ** 40-42 **
                     G  W  L  ERA   G  W  L  ERA
Babe Adams          25 14  5 2.64  62 24 19 3.68
Pete Alexander      30 12 10 3.06  93 46 27 3.12
Steve Carlton       33 13  7 3.58  80 16 36 4.95
Murry Dickson       31 13 11 3.28  85 17 11 4.15
Red Faber           27 13  9 3.76 104 31 40 3.96
Freddie Fitzsimmons 20 16  2 2.81  23  9  5 3.52
Lefty Grove         23 15  4 2.54  43 14 13 4.17
Orel Hershiser      34 11 10 4.41  42 14 17 5.61
Joe Heving          39 12  7 4.01  84 11  6 3.10
Charlie Hough       40 18 13 3.79  96 37 41 3.86
Carl Hubbell        24 11  8 3.95  12  4  4 4.91
Tommy John          37 14 12 3.69  89 22 36 4.60
Jerry Koosman       42 11  7 3.84  92 31 26 4.05
Dutch Leonard       34 12 17 2.51 109 22 23 3.70
Dolf Luque          31 14  8 4.30  92 21 15 3.84
Ted Lyons           22 12  8 3.24  42 26 16 2.91
Sal Maglie          30 13  5 2.89  42 11 13 3.45
Dennis Martinez     24 11  6 3.51  57 22 16 4.19
Clarence Mitchell   25 11  3 4.02  35 14 14 4.08
Mike Morgan         34 13 10 6.24  91  6  5 4.70
Bobo Newsom         31 11 11 3.34  11  0  4 4.20
Joe Niekro          38 16 12 3.04  87 27 36 4.54
Phil Niekro         44 19 18 2.88 106 43 45 3.43
Johnny Niggeling    28 15 11 2.66  76 27 30 2.67
Fritz Ostermueller  26 12 10 3.84  23  8 11 4.42
Gaylord Perry       37 21  6 2.73  89 30 33 3.50
Eddie Plank         42 21 11 2.08  57 21 21 2.14
Jack Quinn          40 13 16 3.48 123 38 41 3.75
Rick Reuschel       36 19 11 3.12  51 20 16 3.26
Jerry Reuss         32 13  9 3.44  34  9  9 5.04
Allie Reynolds      36 13  4 3.32   (Retired)
Nolan Ryan          30 12  8 3.34  99 36 37 3.17
Tom Seaver          34 15 11 3.95  63 23 24 3.53
Warren Spahn        40 21 10 3.50 105 62 34 2.89
Don Sutton          33 14 12 3.77 103 41 32 4.08
Frank Tanana        32 13 11 4.39  32  7 17 4.35
Kent Tekulve        73 11  5 2.54 197  9 14 3.68
Dazzy Vance         35 17 15 2.61  85 29 26 3.70
Early Wynn          37 22 10 3.17  80 28 29 3.81
Cy Young            39 13 21 3.19 114 61 41 1.84

Of the forty in the list, only eleven averaged 10 or more wins over the next three years. And we're talking a bunch Hall-of-Famers and near HoFers here. So one might say that giving a successful 40-year-old is a bad gamble.

However, is there something that sets Moyer apart? Is his career unusual in some way? I would say that it is. Looking at his record, one notices that Moyer made it to the big leagues at age 23, and pitched 200 innings in both his second and third years. By his third year his ERA was better than average, and he appeared to have a fairly successful career ahead of him even though he had yet to have a .500 or better full season.

But Moyer would go another 9 seasons before he again throw 200 innings (in the majors, he did it in 1993 when his Triple-A innings are added in) even though he was healthy in all but one of those seasons. In the process he went through seven organizations and was released by four of them. His age-26 through 29 seasons were extremely poor, and by the end of them, he was attempting to get back to the majors from Triple-A clubs in three different organizations, two of which released him. He finally managed to make it back with Baltimore at age 30. From that point forward he pitched better than average (ERA-wise) in eight of his next ten seasons.

He was traded to the Mariners in 1997 for Darren Bragg and has pitched well in all but one (his injury plagued 2000 season) for Seattle. Since joining Seattle at age 33, his win total each year has exceeded his pre-Seattle high (12, done twice) each year. He has also managed to top 200 innings in 4 of the last 5 years.

So it appears that Moyer has had something of an unusual career. Will the circuitous route to success as well as the fewer innings pitched in the usual prime years aid him over the length of this contract? That remains to be seen. He may be another Phil Niekro, but I still think that paying him $5M+ a season for three years is a big risk.