Johnson Extended

By now you've heard that Randy Johnson has signed a $33 M, 2-year extension with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The contract not only makes him the highest paid pitcher in baseball history; it assures Johnson will be a D-Back until the age of 42.

It's hard to argue with the Johnson signing. He sure has been more than worthy the last couple of years. However, there's always that age bugaboo. How can a team sign a man to such a large, multi-year deal when he will be 40 before the deal even kicks in, you ask?

Well, I asked the same thing. I wondered what one's expectations should be for a 40-year-old. Maybe the salary is justified. So, I made a list of all pitchers with the records after turning 40 (i.e., in the seasons after turning 40 before July). There were 132 such pitchers (including Wade Boggs and Dave Concepcion). From that list I selected just those pitchers who started at least 35 games, about one season. I just wanted to compare Johnson to his peer group-let's assume he garners at least a season's worth of starts in his two years. There were 33 such pitchers.

Here they are:

Name          #Yrs   W   L  PCT   G  GS  CG SHO   IP    ERA WHIP K/9IP K:BB
Phil Niekro      9 121 103 .540 300 294  62  11 1977.0 3.84 1.39  5.23 1.46
Charlie Hough    7  67  88 .432 209 207  29   3 1346.3 4.06 1.36  5.05 1.21
Nolan Ryan       7  71  66 .518 196 196  19   7 1271.7 3.33 1.15 10.17 2.73
Tommy John       7  51  60 .459 180 165  17   2 1000.7 4.43 1.48  2.94 1.24
Warren Spahn     5  75  63 .543 179 156  77  12 1163.0 3.44 1.22  3.89 1.82
Jack Quinn      10  96  80 .545 342 154  69  12 1427.7 3.49 1.35  2.37 1.19
Gaylord Perry    5  47  59 .443 151 149  28   3  992.0 3.91 1.36  4.84 2.07
Cy Young         5  75  60 .556 153 142 119  15 1227.0 2.13 1.04  3.81 2.57
Don Sutton       4  44  38 .537 119 118   5   2  712.0 4.06 1.24  4.63 2.04
Joe Niekro       4  28  37 .431  92  88   5   1  509.7 4.66 1.50  4.79 1.12
Red Faber        5  36  55 .396 182  83  30   2  779.3 3.87 1.39  2.58 0.96
Pete Alexander   4  46  30 .605 102  83  48   3  665.3 3.31 1.23  1.97 1.40
Early Wynn       4  29  31 .483 100  82  30   7  570.7 3.66 1.33  5.39 1.49
Jerry Koosman    3  31  26 .544  92  76   8   3  493.0 4.05 1.34  5.24 1.95
Connie Marrero   4  33  30 .524  91  75  43   6  583.3 3.46 1.32  3.61 1.21
Danny Darwin     3  23  32 .418  98  74   1   0  470.7 4.51 1.36  5.14 2.22
Dazzy Vance      5  33  31 .516 130  70  24   3  621.3 3.87 1.32  5.65 2.18
Steve Carlton    4  16  37 .302  84  70   3   0  430.0 5.21 1.62  5.53 1.15
Sam Jones        3  26  31 .456  75  70  29   3  500.0 4.19 1.47  2.84 0.90
Johnny Niggeling 3  22  27 .449  66  63  28   4  478.7 2.88 1.30  4.61 1.21
Dennis Martinez  4  26  22 .542 110  62   5   4  439.0 4.24 1.37  4.63 1.73
Tom Seaver       2  23  24 .489  63  61   8   1  415.0 3.53 1.27  5.14 1.90
Babe Adams       5  32  27 .542 114  54  28   4  507.7 4.20 1.31  1.90 1.57
Ted Lyons        3  27  20 .574  47  47  44   3  410.3 2.85 1.16  2.70 1.71
Rick Reuschel    3  20  16 .556  51  46   2   0  306.0 3.26 1.33  4.82 1.78
Tom Candiotti    2  15  22 .405  51  46   3   0  272.3 5.49 1.47  4.59 1.49
Lefty Grove      2  14  13 .519  43  42  19   1  287.3 4.17 1.41  3.63 1.26
Curt Davis       3  20  21 .488  56  41  22   1  345.7 3.36 1.28  2.29 1.42
Eppa Rixey       3  15  15 .500  63  40  15   3  332.7 3.27 1.28  1.24 0.79
Eddie Plank      2  21  21 .500  57  40  25   4  366.7 2.14 1.13  2.80 1.09
Charlie Root     3  18  19 .486  90  39  15   0  386.0 4.36 1.41  3.75 1.55
Orel Hershiser   2  14  17 .452  42  38   0   0  203.7 5.61 1.51  4.51 1.12
Rip Sewell       3  25   8 .758  73  35  13   2  318.7 3.62 1.36  2.77 0.93
Total          4.2    1229 .502    3006 873 122        3.73 1.32  4.34 1.57
                  1240         3801           21,810.3
Total, all 40+ 2.6    1878 .503    3588     148        3.74 1.33  4.37 1.52
                  1900         9721    1056   33,173.3

It seems to me from this that those pitchers going strong at 40 continue to go strong for some time. Only a few (Carlton, Candiotti, and Hershiser) could be called poor pitchers after turning 40, and some were still very good. A few were tremendous.

It's not as if this is conclusive, but if Johnson continues to be a dominant pitcher into his forties, it won't be unprecedented.

Keep in mind that Johnson is 76 wins away from 300. He has averaged 20.25 wins a year since joining Arizona 4 years ago. When his new contract runs out, if his win average holds, he could be just 15 wins from 300. I know that this is a supposition built on a what-if, but given Johnson late start and seeming slow development, who ever imagined he would get that close?

Consider that Johnson's record stood at 88-75 after 1994, the year in which he turned 30. Johnson is 143-44 since then, good enough for 30th on the all-time list for wins after the age of 30. His projected win total over the next 3 years would put him at 205 post-30 wins, good for 5th all-time behind Cy Young (295), Phil Niekro (264), Warren Spahn (255), and Gaylord Perry (219) (and one post-30 win ahead of Sam Jones).