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Moyer Biener
2007-04-20 11:17
by Mike Carminati

Wednesday was kind of a bad day for the Phils.

Its started with Charlie Manuel making headlines due to an altercation with local radio "personality" Howard Eskin. Next, came opening-day starter Brett Myers' move to the bullpen, a highly questionable and disputed move. Then, reigning NL MVP Ryan Howard pulled up lame in the tenth inning running out a grounder and was listed as day-to-day. Howard had to remain in the game for the final three and one-half innings even with the injury since there were no men left on the Phillie bench. Finally, came the extra-inning loss to the NL East doormats, the Nats, which dumped the Phils into sole possession of last place not only in the East but in the entire National League.

There was little promise that Thursday would be any better. Howard was indeed out of the lineup. His shoes were to be filled by Greg Dobbs, a little know utility man with Seattle for parts of three seasons, who surprising made the Phillies roster due to a hot spring bat and a lack of depth and owned just 251 plate appearances and 2 home runs for his career. The team now faced a series sweep at the hands of the lowly Nats. Manuel's performance, job status, and sanity were being questioned throughout the Philadelphia and national media.

Then Jamie Moyer took the mound, quieting the Nationals' bats. He took a shutout into the ninth and, after surviving a little bases-loaded scare upon being replaced by shaky and rapidly aging closer Tom Gordon, won his second game of the year.

When the Phils quietly picked up Moyer for two minor prospects after the trade deadline last year, I thought it was an odd move. Moyer was 43 and was struggling with the last-place M's. He was 6-12 with a 4.39 ERA. This was after three highly mediocre seasons following his great 21-7 2003 All-Star season. He seemed ready to retire. It was an odd move for a team that was concentrating on youth or at least what passes for youth in Philadelphia, 26- to28-year-olds. I thought maybe the Phils were acquiring him as a potential replacement for undistinguished pitching coach Rich Dubee in 2007.

Moyer pitched well willing five of his eight starts with an ERA around four and was rewarded with what seemed at the time a gratuitous two-year extension. Moyer has been a calming influence on the staff so far in 2007 with a 2-1 record and a 3.05 ERA. One could make a good argument for his being the team MVP to this point in the season, surely a dubious honor on a 4-10 team, but there it is.

If he can continue to lull offenses, he projects to twenty wins. I know, it's early. Tuffy Rhodes once project to 78 homers mid-April one season. But that in itself is a remarkable feat for a pitcher who looked like he was ready to be stuck by a fork last August. (Besides what else is there to talk about from yesterday's game? Dobbs going 0-for-5?)

It would be Moyer's third twenty-win season, and he would become the oldest twenty-game winner by a couple of years. Bedsides twenty wins would put him in the mid-200s for wins, which starts to make a somewhat compelling argument for his going into the Hall of Fame. Twenty wins would tie him for 58th all time with Hall of Famer Whitey Ford.

Don't get me wrong: I don't think he has a strong argument, but he would fall into that near-Hall-worthy group that appear perennially on the writers' ballot but never seem to gain entry, guys like Jack Morris and Tommy John. That's not too bad for a former journeyman who did not become an established starter until age 33.

Let's say he can keep it up and ends up winning twenty games. At 44, he would better the oldest previous twenty-game winner, Warren Spahn, by two years. Here are the oldest to win twenty. Note that Moyer is on the list twice:

PitcherYrAgeWL IP ERA WHIP K-BB K-9IP
Warren Spahn196342237 259.7 2.60 1.12 2.08 3.54
Cy Young1908412111 299.0 1.26 0.89 4.05 4.52
Phil Niekro1979402120 342.0 3.39 1.24 1.84 5.47
Jamie Moyer200340217 215.0 3.27 1.23 1.95 5.40
Pete Alexander1927402110 268.0 2.52 1.12 1.26 1.61
Cy Young1907402115 343.3 1.99 0.98 2.88 3.85
Warren Spahn1961402113 262.7 3.02 1.14 1.80 3.94
Gaylord Perry197839216 260.7 2.73 1.18 2.33 5.32
Eddie Plank1915392111 268.3 2.08 0.99 2.72 4.93
Warren Spahn1960392110 267.7 3.50 1.23 2.08 5.18
Early Wynn1959392210 255.7 3.17 1.26 1.50 6.30
Warren Spahn1959382115 292.0 2.96 1.21 2.04 4.41
Spud Chandler194638208 257.3 2.10 1.13 1.53 4.83
Roger Clemens200138203 220.3 3.51 1.26 2.96 8.70
Randy Johnson200238245 260.0 2.32 1.03 4.70 11.56
Jamie Moyer200138206 209.7 3.43 1.10 2.70 5.11

He would also enjoy the most valuable season for a pitcher over 43 ever. Here are the best seasons (by Pitching Win Shares) after turning 44:

AgePitch WSPlayerYRWL IP ERAWHIPK-BBK-9IP
4417.50Jack Quinn1928187 211.3 2.90 1.29 1.26 1.83
4515.30Phil Niekro1984168 215.7 3.09 1.37 1.79 5.68
4513.40Satchel Paige19521210 138.0 3.07 1.25 1.60 5.93
4413.40Nolan Ryan1991126 173.0 2.91 1.01 2.82 10.56
4413.40Hoyt Wilhelm196783 89.0 1.31 1.03 2.24 7.69
4613.00Hoyt Wilhelm196977 78.0 2.19 0.92 3.05 7.73
4412.60Tommy John1987136 187.7 4.03 1.38 1.34 3.02
4511.80Hoyt Wilhelm196844 93.7 1.73 0.99 3.00 6.92
4611.30Satchel Paige195339 117.3 3.53 1.30 1.31 3.91
4710.80Hoyt Wilhelm197065 82.0 3.40 1.40 1.62 7.46
4610.30Phil Niekro19851612 220.0 4.09 1.47 1.24 6.10
479.80Jack Quinn193154 64.3 2.66 1.38 1.04 3.50
459.70Jack Quinn1929119 161.0 3.97 1.37 1.05 2.29
449.30Phil Niekro19831110 201.7 3.97 1.57 1.22 5.71
478.90Phil Niekro19861111 210.3 4.32 1.60 0.85 3.47
458.30Charlie Hough1993916 204.3 4.27 1.34 1.77 5.55

Of course, it's more likely that Moyer will wilt under the summer heat, but c'mon, something has to go right with this team at some point. Doesn't it?

Comments
2007-04-20 12:36:20
1.   chuie
Hall of Stats, maybe not, but Tommy John should be in the Hall of Fame. When's the last time any announcer got through a week without invoking his name? (And about Mario Mendoza....)
2007-04-20 14:35:16
2.   das411
Keep in mind that the team would not have been able to pick up Moyer without clearing some of a certain #53's salary...

or we could talk about the 0-11 hurting that Utley and Rollins put on my fantasy team during that extra-inning game. I know it's still early but...when did Chase Utley turn into Pat Burrell??

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