Baseball Toaster Mike's Baseball Rants
Help
This is my site with my opinions, but I hope that, like Irish Spring, you like it, too.
Frozen Toast
Search
Google Search
Web
Toaster
Mike's Baseball Rants
Archives

2009
01 

2008
10  09  07 
06  05  04  03 

2007
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2006
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2005
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2004
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2003
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2002
12  11  10  09  08  07 
Links to MBBR
Walkie-No Talkie
2007-04-12 09:23
by Mike Carminati
Walk on, walk on with hope in your heart.
—"Hammerin'" Oscar Hammerstein II, "You'll Never Walk Alone".

The Phils won a ballgame yesterday in as odd a fashion as they have been losing them as late. In the third inning of a scoreless ballgame with the Mets, Chase Utley hit a two-out single and then was followed by four straight walks and a hit batsmen as the Phils score three runs and never looked back eventually winning, 5-2.

Oliver Perez, the Mets starter, was pulled after the hit batsman, while pitching a one-hitter. However, he also allowed seven walks and the HBP along with three runs, all earned, in two and two-thirds innings. Of his 73 pitches, only 32 were strikes. He threw just nine strikes in the 31 pitches he threw during the two-out rally in the third.

Perez's wildness was contrasted by the Phillies pitchers who were nearly perfect from Adam Eaton's seven-inning, four-hit start to Antonio Alfonseca's perfect eighth to Tom Gordon's one-hit ninth that earned his first save of the season. It seems that Alfonseca, who seemed to start the season in Manuel's doghouse, has earned a shot at the setup job. He seems the logical pick at this point.

The pitching potentially turning a corner will have more impact on the season, but the story of the game was the walks. The Phils garnered eleven on the night for the second time this season. Actually, the Phils are on a pace to set the team mark for walks per game. So far this season, they have amassed 51 walks in their first eight games for an average of 6.4. That outpaces the highest average ever, 5.39 per game, collected by Joe McCarthy's 1949 Red Sox who were led by Teddy B-ball's 162 BBs (tying his career high and tied for the fifth highest ever).

Here are the ten highest walks per game team totals ever:

TeamYrGBBSO BB per G K per G HR per G
Boston Red Sox1949155835510 5.39 3.29 0.85
Boston Red Sox1948155823552 5.31 3.56 0.78
Philadelphia Athletics1949154783493 5.08 3.20 0.53
Boston Reds1890130652435 5.02 3.35 0.42
St. Louis Browns1941157775552 4.94 3.52 0.58
New York Yankees1932156766527 4.91 3.38 1.03
Boston Red Sox1951154756594 4.91 3.86 0.82
Detroit Tigers1949155751502 4.85 3.24 0.57
New York Yankees1931155748554 4.83 3.57 1.00
Detroit Tigers1947158762565 4.82 3.58 0.65

(Note that the Indians' 5.20 average this year would also make the list.)

Oddly, the Phils also are on a pace to match the all-time list for strikeouts per game, 8.63, with 69 in eight games so far this year. Here is the all-time top ten:

TeamYrGBBSO BB per G K per G HR per G
Milwaukee Brewers20011624881399 3.01 8.64 1.29
Cincinnati Reds20041625991335 3.70 8.24 1.20
Cincinnati Reds20031625241326 3.23 8.19 1.12
Milwaukee Brewers20041615401312 3.35 8.15 0.84
Cincinnati Reds20051636111303 3.75 7.99 1.36
San Diego Padres20011626781273 4.19 7.86 0.99
Chicago Cubs20021625851269 3.61 7.83 1.23
Detroit Tigers19961625461268 3.37 7.83 1.26
Detroit Tigers1994115520897 4.52 7.80 1.40
St. Louis Cardinals20001626751253 4.17 7.73 1.45

The Phils are also just a hair above the league average in homers per game (0.88 vs. 0.83), which no one would have expected from what promised to be a very productive lineup that plays in a hitters' park.

Actually, homers are down all around the league. Home runs per game are at their lowest since 1992:

YrGHR HR per G
2007252210 0.833
200648585386 1.109
200548625017 1.032
200448565451 1.123
200348605207 1.071
200248525059 1.043
200148585458 1.124
200048585693 1.172
199948565528 1.138
199848645064 1.041
199745324640 1.024
199645344962 1.094
199540344081 1.012
199432003306 1.033
199345384030 0.888
199242123038 0.721

However, I should point out that the D-Rays—Yes, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays—are on a pace to break the "record" for team dingers per game. They have had 14 in their first eight games, though no one player has more than two. That averages to 1.75 home runs per game. The Braves are also fractions ahead of the all-time pace at 1.63. Here are the all-time team highs:

TeamYrGBBSO BB per G K per G HR per G
Seattle Mariners19971626261110 3.86 6.85 1.63
Texas Rangers20051624951112 3.06 6.86 1.60
Baltimore Orioles1996163645915 3.96 5.61 1.58
Houston Astros20001626731129 4.15 6.97 1.54
Seattle Mariners19961616701052 4.16 6.53 1.52
Texas Rangers20011625481093 3.38 6.75 1.52
Seattle Mariners19991626101095 3.77 6.76 1.51
Toronto Blue Jays20001625261026 3.25 6.33 1.51
Oakland Athletics19961626401114 3.95 6.88 1.50
Chicago White Sox20041624991030 3.08 6.36 1.49
New York Yankees2004162670982 4.14 6.06 1.49

But I digress. The bottom line is the Phils are on a record pace for strikeouts and walks per game, meaning that they are not making contact. That was something that we knew was an issue, but we didn't know it was this bad.

They have eight players—their whole starting lineup—that project to one hundred or more strikeouts for the season led by Ryan Howard who is on a pace for an all-time record 202 Ks:

NAMEGSOK Proj
Ryan Howard810 202.50
Pat Burrell89 182.25
Aaron Rowand88 162.00
Jimmy Rollins87 141.75
Chase Utley87 141.75
Shane Victorino87 141.75
Carlos Ruiz66 121.50
Wes Helms65 101.25

Six Phils project to one hundred or more walks again led by Ryan Howard who projects to about 203, which would be the second highest all-time :

NAMEGBBBB proj
Ryan Howard810 202.50
Jimmy Rollins88 162.00
Pat Burrell87 141.75
Aaron Rowand87 141.75
Shane Victorino85 101.25
Wes Helms65 101.25

Of course, it's very early in the season but there are some signs of serious trouble in this lineup. Consider that the Phils have a glorified batting coach as a manager, and it makes you wonder what they are trying to do at the plate. As the weather gets warmer, these 11-walk games are likely to disappear but the strikeouts will continue to pile up.

How this team will generate some real offense will be a very interesting subplot as the season progresses. Of course, it would be more interesting if the defense and pitching woes weren't more serious. Maybe they solved some of those yesterday. It some point they are going to have to realize they need an honest to goodness major-league caliber starting third baseman (offensively and defensively) and probably right fielder, but this dysfunctional front office is probably a couple of months away from that revelation.

Comments
2007-04-12 10:37:07
1.   dianagramr
Good stuff as always Mike!

You got me wondering if the Phils walk-a-thon was resulting in more LOB.

Lo and behold, I can't find aggregate team LOB info on ESPN or MLB.COM.

(curious)

2007-04-12 11:06:02
2.   rbj
Weird that 5 of the top 10 BB/game were '48-51, plus a 47. You'd think the effect of players returning from the war would have been over by then, so what else was going on.
2007-04-12 22:30:52
3.   das411
Ahhh small sample sizes...how many homers is J-Roll on pace for after tonight Mike?

Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.