Baseball Toaster Mike's Baseball Rants
Help
This is my site with my opinions, but I hope that, like Irish Spring, you like it, too.
Frozen Toast
Search
Google Search
Web
Toaster
Mike's Baseball Rants
Archives

2009
01 

2008
10  09  07 
06  05  04  03 

2007
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2006
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2005
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2004
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2003
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2002
12  11  10  09  08  07 
Links to MBBR
In the Court of the GM King
2007-03-07 21:34
by Mike Carminati

If you missed it, Forbes came up with its own ranking of general managers throughout the major sports. "Forbes?" you say? Yes, that bastion of sabermetrics. That makes about as much sense as their CEO running for president (twice).

Forbes found that Kevin McHale of the ever-underachieving and ever-mediocre Timberwolves was the best. Aside from the fact that McHale may be the one sports figure I despise the most, there is not a whole lot to recommend him for this vaulted position. Baseball's best was Billy Beane, a good choice, but he came in 26th overall. And don't get me started on Billy King ludicrously coming in third overall while running my Sixers about as well as Dick Cheney shoots quail.

The basic problem is that Forbes made no adjustments for the wildly varying winning percentages across the major sports. This is exacerbated by the fact that they range from 16-game to 162-game schedules. That Kevin McHale took on a faltering expansion team with a .250 or so winning percentage and made them mediocre for many years is not as impressive as, say, converting a perennial sub-par baseball team with a .400 winning percentage like, say the Braves in the Eighties, into a perennial division winner as, say, John Schuerholz did.

So I thought I would try to rank them, just the baseball GMs, given that the each sport has different schedules, playoff systems, central bargaining agreements, etc. (and besides I don't have data for the other three sports). But what criteria should we use?

Clearly, Forbes approach of looking at the improvement from one's predecessor is inherently flawed. Why is a one-year change so important? What if use the previous five? How about ten? And what happens to Brian Cashman who took over a successful team and kept it successful? He ends up looking no better than Dave Littlefield, who took over an abysmal team and kept it abysmal.

I reject this approach. I prefer to look at what the individual accomplished. What makes a successful GM anyway? The three main criteria in my opinion is that his team wins, that he accomplishes this while spending his payroll dollars as wisely as possible, and that he keeps his job. Therefore, I ranked the current crew of GMs based on career winning percentage, total games, and adjusted payroll (i.e., his team's payroll adjusted for the overall major-league average, averaged over his career).

Here are the results. First, winning percentage and games:

GMTeamTot GRkWLPCTRk
Brian CashmanNYA145411891563.6131
Theo EpsteinBOS64822374274.5772
John SchuerholzATL3980122641716.5693
Billy BeaneOAK145710825632.5664
Brian SabeanSFN16189889729.5495
Ned Colletti LAN162258874.5436
Walt JockettySLN192351039884.5407
Ken WilliamsCHA97214522450.5378
Bill StonemanLAA126612678588.5369
Pat GillickPHI3783220021781.52910
Tim PurpuraHOU32424171153.52811
Larry BeinfestFLO81017414396.51112
Omar MinayaNYM81017412398.50913
Jim BowdenWAS198349811002.49514
Kevin TowersSDN17827881901.49415
Wayne KrivskyCIN162258082.49416
Jon Daniels TEX162258082.49416
J.P. RicciardiTOR80920398411.49218
Terry RyanMIN19235944979.49119
Jim HendryCHN72721355372.48820
Doug MelvinMIL17688860908.48621
Mark ShapiroCLE81017393417.48522
Josh ByrnesARI162257686.46923
Bill Bavasi SEA97214449523.46224
Dayton MooreKCA105304857.45725
Mike FlanaganBAL64822293355.45226
Dan O'DowdCOL114613518628.45227
David Dombrowski DET2714312171497.44828
Dave LittlefieldPIT88316381502.43129
Andrew FriedmanTBA1622561101.37730

Next, the adjusted salary:

GMTeam Avg Tm Payroll Avg MLB Payroll Avg Adj Salary Rk
Andrew FriedmanTBA $ 35,417,967 $ 77,409,987 0.46 1
Larry BeinfestFLO $ 41,796,059 $ 71,560,124 0.59 2
Dave LittlefieldPIT $ 42,842,941 $ 71,560,124 0.60 3
Billy BeaneOAK $ 42,097,381 $ 63,456,773 0.65 4
Terry RyanMIN $ 36,794,292 $ 56,627,516 0.65 5
Mark ShapiroCLE $ 51,869,517 $ 71,560,124 0.73 6
David Dombrowski DET $ 35,712,675 $ 47,013,215 0.77 7
Josh ByrnesARI $ 59,684,226 $ 77,409,987 0.77 8
Wayne KrivskyCIN $ 60,909,519 $ 77,409,987 0.79 9
J.P. RicciardiTOR $ 59,046,967 $ 71,560,124 0.83 10
Kevin TowersSDN $ 48,322,924 $ 58,686,286 0.84 11
Dan O'DowdCOL $ 58,742,914 $ 68,384,843 0.87 12
Jon Daniels TEX $ 68,228,662 $ 77,409,987 0.88 13
Omar MinayaNYM $ 66,781,457 $ 71,560,124 0.92 14
Mike FlanaganBAL $ 66,498,847 $ 71,560,124 0.93 15
Jim BowdenWAS $ 45,402,463 $ 51,988,463 0.94 16
Ken WilliamsCHA $ 69,476,278 $ 70,526,011 0.98 17
Bill StonemanLAA $ 63,956,546 $ 60,174,817 1.02 18
Doug MelvinMIL $ 53,221,994 $ 55,641,904 1.02 19
Bill Bavasi SEA $ 64,172,440 $ 58,677,109 1.06 20
Brian SabeanSFN $ 66,519,835 $ 61,136,725 1.07 21
Tim PurpuraHOU $ 82,736,718 $ 75,183,550 1.10 22
Walt JockettySLN $ 65,828,694 $ 56,627,516 1.16 23
Pat GillickPHI $ 42,193,484 $ 33,966,425 1.20 24
Jim HendryCHN $ 87,971,441 $ 72,582,842 1.21 25
Ned Colletti LAN $ 98,447,187 $ 77,409,987 1.27 26
John SchuerholzATL $ 52,762,321 $ 39,733,604 1.29 27
Theo EpsteinBOS $ 117,712,487 $ 72,582,842 1.62 28
Brian CashmanNYA $ 136,000,986 $ 63,456,773 2.08 29
Dayton MooreKCA N/A N/A N/A

Finally, here's the overall ranking:

Overall RankGMTeam
1Billy BeaneOAK
2Terry RyanMIN
3John SchuerholzATL
3Larry BeinfestFLO
5Kevin TowersSDN
6Jim BowdenWAS
7Walt JockettySLN
7Brian SabeanSFN
9Pat GillickPHI
10David Dombrowski DET
11Bill StonemanLAA
11Ken WilliamsCHA
13Brian CashmanNYA
14Omar MinayaNYM
15Mark ShapiroCLE
16Doug MelvinMIL
16J.P. RicciardiTOR
16Dave LittlefieldPIT
19Wayne KrivskyCIN
20Theo EpsteinBOS
20Dan O'DowdCOL
22Jon Daniels TEX
23Josh ByrnesARI
23Andrew FriedmanTBA
25Ned Colletti LAN
25Tim PurpuraHOU
27Bill Bavasi SEA
28Mike FlanaganBAL
29Jim HendryCHN
30Dayton MooreKCA

So I got the same results as Forbes: that's embarrassing. But I can't disagree with Beane coming in number one. Also, Hendry coming in near the bottom makes sense. I would like to run each GM's transactions to determine who was at the best at acquiring talent, but I can't say that I disagree with the results from these three quickie metrics. At least Billy King didn't come in number three.

Comments
2007-03-08 00:34:04
1.   Adam B
Brian "A.J. for Nathan, Liriano, and Boof" Sabean should not be in the top half of GMs just because Barry Bonds has been a Giant due to Pittsburgh's stupidity.
2007-03-08 12:55:06
2.   sam2175
I am disturbed by Jim Bowden coming sixth. Jim Hendry deserves his spot though.
2007-03-08 15:44:52
3.   StolenMonkey86
Wayne Krivsky is better than Theo Epstein? Um . . .

Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.