Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
It seems that some felt my last post was rather unsabermetric, if I may be allowed to coin a new word. I overlooked inflation and relied too heavily on that most Joe Morganian of pitching stats, wins.
Sheez. I makes me hearken back to a saying inscribed in the bathroom stall of my freshman dorm back in good ol' Butchman/Speakman in the venerable Quadrangle. And I quote, "Always a critic. Never a cricket."
Anyway, I was just being a bit of a lazy sabermetrician, or Neyeresque, to coin another new word. I had just loaded Sean Lahman's 2006 data and had yet to load some ancillary data. That has since been corrected, and I can now address both issues.
First, instead of listing the 26-year-olds by wins, here they are by Pitching Win Shares. Zambrano is 16th:
| Name | Yr | W | L | ERA | Salary | Avg Salary | Adj Salary | Pitching WS |
| Dwight Gooden | 1991 | 119 | 46 | 2.82 | $ 2,466,667 | $ 891,884 | 2.77 | 116 |
| Fernando Valenzuela | 1987 | 99 | 68 | 2.94 | $ 1,850,000 | $ 434,001 | 4.26 | 112 |
| Bret Saberhagen | 1990 | 92 | 61 | 3.23 | $ 1,400,000 | $ 511,801 | 2.74 | 109 |
| Roger Clemens | 1989 | 78 | 34 | 3.05 | $ 2,300,000 | $ 505,462 | 4.55 | 94 |
| Mike Witt | 1987 | 71 | 59 | 3.52 | $ 1,133,333 | $ 434,001 | 2.61 | 80 |
| Pedro Martinez | 1998 | 65 | 39 | 3.00 | $ 7,575,000 | $ 1,280,845 | 5.91 | 77 |
| Mark Gubicza | 1989 | 69 | 56 | 3.62 | $ 1,375,000 | $ 505,462 | 2.72 | 76 |
| Kevin Appier | 1994 | 59 | 38 | 2.95 | $ 3,800,000 | $ 1,049,589 | 3.62 | 74 |
| Dan Petry | 1985 | 78 | 51 | 3.52 | $ 875,000 | $ 476,142 | 1.84 | 74 |
| Greg Maddux | 1992 | 75 | 64 | 3.61 | $ 4,200,000 | $ 1,047,521 | 4.01 | 74 |
| Ismael Valdez | 2000 | 61 | 54 | 3.38 | $ 5,737,500 | $ 1,992,985 | 2.88 | 68 |
| Richard Dotson | 1985 | 70 | 55 | 3.71 | $ 900,000 | $ 476,142 | 1.89 | 66 |
| Steve Avery | 1996 | 65 | 52 | 3.75 | $ 4,200,000 | $ 1,026,924 | 4.09 | 64 |
| Jim Abbott | 1994 | 58 | 66 | 3.66 | $ 2,775,000 | $ 1,049,589 | 2.64 | 63 |
| Alex Fernandez | 1996 | 63 | 53 | 3.86 | $ 4,500,000 | $ 1,026,924 | 4.38 | 62 |
Carlos Zambrano | 2007 | 64 | 42 | 3.29 | $ 12,400,000 | $ 2,828,623 | 4.38 | 62 |
| John Smoltz | 1993 | 57 | 54 | 3.50 | $ 2,700,000 | $ 976,967 | 2.76 | 60 |
| Mike Mussina | 1995 | 52 | 21 | 3.20 | $ 2,925,000 | $ 964,979 | 3.03 | 59 |
| Byung-Hyun Kim | 2005 | 31 | 28 | 3.37 | $ 6,575,000 | $ 2,633,831 | 2.50 | 59 |
| Andy Benes | 1994 | 59 | 54 | 3.44 | $ 3,005,000 | $ 1,049,589 | 2.86 | 58 |
| Britt Burns | 1985 | 52 | 49 | 3.58 | $ 727,500 | $ 476,142 | 1.53 | 56 |
| Storm Davis | 1988 | 57 | 48 | 3.81 | $ 550,000 | $ 453,020 | 1.21 | 56 |
Now, here are the 26-year-old pitchers by adjusted salary, i.e., their salary adjusted for the season's average salary. For Zambrano, I used the 2006 average which might prove low once the opening day rosters are set. Note that Zambrano comes in third:
| Name | Yr | W | L | ERA | Salary | Avg Salary | Adj Salary | Pitching WS |
| Pedro Martinez | 1998 | 65 | 39 | 3.00 | $ 7,575,000 | $ 1,280,845 | 5.91 | 77 |
| Roger Clemens | 1989 | 78 | 34 | 3.05 | $ 2,300,000 | $ 505,462 | 4.55 | 94 |
| Carlos Zambrano | 2007 | 64 | 42 | 3.29 | $ 12,400,000 | $ 2,828,623 | 4.38 | 62 |
| Alex Fernandez | 1996 | 63 | 53 | 3.86 | $ 4,500,000 | $ 1,026,924 | 4.38 | 62 |
| Fernando Valenzuela | 1987 | 99 | 68 | 2.94 | $ 1,850,000 | $ 434,001 | 4.26 | 112 |
| Steve Avery | 1996 | 65 | 52 | 3.75 | $ 4,200,000 | $ 1,026,924 | 4.09 | 64 |
| Greg Maddux | 1992 | 75 | 64 | 3.61 | $ 4,200,000 | $ 1,047,521 | 4.01 | 74 |
| Kevin Appier | 1994 | 59 | 38 | 2.95 | $ 3,800,000 | $ 1,049,589 | 3.62 | 74 |
| Mike Mussina | 1995 | 52 | 21 | 3.20 | $ 2,925,000 | $ 964,979 | 3.03 | 59 |
| Andy Pettitte | 1998 | 51 | 24 | 3.58 | $ 3,800,000 | $ 1,280,845 | 2.97 | 50 |
| Ismael Valdez | 2000 | 61 | 54 | 3.38 | $ 5,737,500 | $ 1,992,985 | 2.88 | 68 |
| Andy Benes | 1994 | 59 | 54 | 3.44 | $ 3,005,000 | $ 1,049,589 | 2.86 | 58 |
| Tom Glavine | 1992 | 53 | 52 | 3.81 | $ 2,975,000 | $ 1,047,521 | 2.84 | 48 |
| Mike Hampton | 1999 | 48 | 39 | 3.68 | $ 4,125,000 | $ 1,485,317 | 2.78 | 45 |
| Dwight Gooden | 1991 | 119 | 46 | 2.82 | $ 2,466,667 | $ 891,884 | 2.77 | 116 |
| John Smoltz | 1993 | 57 | 54 | 3.50 | $ 2,700,000 | $ 976,967 | 2.76 | 60 |
| Wilson Alvarez | 1996 | 43 | 33 | 3.81 | $ 2,825,000 | $ 1,026,924 | 2.75 | 42 |
| Bret Saberhagen | 1990 | 92 | 61 | 3.23 | $ 1,400,000 | $ 511,801 | 2.74 | 109 |
| Mark Gubicza | 1989 | 69 | 56 | 3.62 | $ 1,375,000 | $ 505,462 | 2.72 | 76 |
| Jim Abbott | 1994 | 58 | 66 | 3.66 | $ 2,775,000 | $ 1,049,589 | 2.64 | 63 |
| Jose Rijo | 1991 | 53 | 52 | 3.60 | $ 2,333,333 | $ 891,884 | 2.62 | 50 |
| Mike Witt | 1987 | 71 | 59 | 3.52 | $ 1,133,333 | $ 434,001 | 2.61 | 80 |
| Ramon Martinez | 1994 | 62 | 49 | 3.35 | $ 2,687,500 | $ 1,049,589 | 2.56 | 53 |
| Ben McDonald | 1994 | 41 | 40 | 3.82 | $ 2,675,000 | $ 1,049,589 | 2.55 | 42 |
| Tom Gordon | 1994 | 56 | 52 | 3.87 | $ 2,635,000 | $ 1,049,589 | 2.51 | 48 |
OK, so Zambrano is not the highest-paid but is among the highest. Given that the two ahead of him are future Hall-of-Famers, that still is quite a bit of pressure. And that's a slightly more sabermetric evaluation.
Valenzuela, Gooden, Saberhagen. Incredible starts to careers that never lived up to potential.
Zambrano is above average of the pack in terms of the win shares (11th among the 25), and he is 8th in the ERA department (tending a bit to being Joe Morganian, inspired by the new coinage) pitching in Wrigley. The potential is certainly there for him to be a dominant pitcher, but yes, by all metrics, he certainly is a bit overpaid.
Holy cow! Totally forgot about that one. Stared at it once a day (and twice on Sunday) our whole freshman year.
Welcome back, Mike.
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