Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
At the end of the 2003 season, optimism abounded at Wrigley. The Cubs had won a division title for the first time in 14 seasons. Their pitching staff was led by four starters who were all young and highly touted.
22-year-old Mark Prior was the centerpiece. He won 18 games, finished third in the ERA crown (2.43), and third in the NL Cy Young vote in his first full season as a major-leaguer. 26-year-old Kerry Wood, the staff's previous savior, had already logged five seasons in the majors and come back from Tommy John surgery. That season he went 14-11 with a 3.20 ERA. 28-year-old Matt Clement helped make ridiculously long goatees popular in Chicago by going 14-12 with a 4.11 ERA.
The number four pitcher was a 22-year-old who surprisingly turned around a 5-10 career record in parts of two previous seasons to turn in a 13-11 record with a 3.11 ERA. Carlos Zambrano was a nice throw-in for a pitching-rich franchise.
The season ended in crushing disappointment. These are the Cubs, after all. But even so they had they great young staff, right?
Prior, Wood, and Clement racked up only one complete season among them since 2003, and that was by Clement prior to signing what once seemed a ridiculous contract with the Red Sox after 2004. Wood and Prior have both succumbed to injuries. Prior has won 18 games in total in just 57 starts in the last three seasons. Wood has won just 12 and started 47 over that period. Both pitchers won just one game each last season in 13 total starts.
But the good news is that Zambrano became one of the premier pitchers in the league finishing in the top five in the Cy Young vote twice, winning between 14 and 16 games each of the last three years while never pitching fewer than 209.2 innings and while watching his strikeout totals rise from 188 in 2004 to 210 last year (8.07 to 8.83 K/9IP).
Zambrano, now 25 and the staff ace, just signed a $12.4 M one-year deal with the Cubs that flew under the radar after this offseason of contract excess. It was remarkable both for the amount of money and for the number—or lack thereof—of years.
Zambrano has been very good and has been constantly improving. He's the kind of pitcher whose career a baseball fan can't wait to see unfold. But $12.4 M for a pitcher who has never won more than 16 games in a season and who has never led his league in anything besides a six-way tie for wins (16) in 2005, walks in 2006 (115), and hit batsmen in 2004 (20). It's good to be a Cub in 2007 at least if you are on the receiving end of a new contract.
Zambrano, who will be 26 for the bulk of the season, will become the third highest-paid 26-year-old in baseball history behind just Alex Rodriguez ($22M in 2002) and Albert Pujols ($14M last year). He will make nearly five million dollars more this year than the next highest paid 26-year-old pitcher ever (Pedro Martinez at $7,575,000 in 1998).
Has Zambrano been that good?
Here's a rundown of the pitchers with the most wins by the age of 26 since 1985:
| Name | Yr | W | L | ERA | Salary |
| Dwight Gooden | 1991 | 119 | 46 | 2.82 | $ 2,466,667 |
| Fernando Valenzuela | 1987 | 99 | 68 | 2.94 | $ 1,850,000 |
| Bret Saberhagen | 1990 | 92 | 61 | 3.23 | $ 1,400,000 |
| Dan Petry | 1985 | 78 | 51 | 3.52 | $ 875,000 |
| Roger Clemens | 1989 | 78 | 34 | 3.05 | $ 2,300,000 |
| Greg Maddux | 1992 | 75 | 64 | 3.61 | $ 4,200,000 |
| Mike Witt | 1987 | 71 | 59 | 3.52 | $ 1,133,333 |
| Richard Dotson | 1985 | 70 | 55 | 3.71 | $ 900,000 |
| Mark Gubicza | 1989 | 69 | 56 | 3.62 | $ 1,375,000 |
| Mark Buehrle | 2005 | 69 | 45 | 3.76 | $ 6,000,000 |
| Steve Avery | 1996 | 65 | 52 | 3.75 | $ 4,200,000 |
| Pedro Martinez | 1998 | 65 | 39 | 3.00 | $ 7,575,000 |
| Mark Mulder | 2004 | 64 | 34 | 3.77 | $ 4,450,000 |
Carlos Zambrano | 2007 | 64 | 42 | 3.29 | $12,400,000 |
| Jon Garland | 2006 | 64 | 61 | 4.42 | $ 7,000,000 |
| Alex Fernandez | 1996 | 63 | 53 | 3.86 | $ 4,500,000 |
| Ramon Martinez | 1994 | 62 | 49 | 3.35 | $ 2,687,500 |
| Barry Zito | 2004 | 61 | 29 | 3.12 | $ 3,000,000 |
| Ismael Valdez | 2000 | 61 | 54 | 3.38 | $ 5,737,500 |
Zambrano is arguably a very similar pitcher to Mark Buehrle at this stage of his career (slightly better but comparable), but he's doubling Buehrle's salary at the same age just two years later.
To put it in perspective, here are the highest paid 26-year-old pitchers all time:
| Name | Yr | W | L | ERA | Salary |
| Carlos Zambrano | 2007 | 64 | 42 | 3.29 | $12,400,000 |
| Pedro Martinez | 1998 | 65 | 39 | 3.00 | $ 7,575,000 |
| Jon Garland | 2006 | 64 | 61 | 4.42 | $ 7,000,000 |
| Byung-Hyun Kim | 2005 | 31 | 28 | 3.37 | $ 6,575,000 |
| Kerry Wood | 2003 | 45 | 30 | 3.75 | $ 6,190,000 |
| Mark Buehrle | 2005 | 69 | 45 | 3.76 | $ 6,000,000 |
| Javier Vazquez | 2003 | 51 | 56 | 4.37 | $ 6,000,000 |
| Ben Sheets | 2005 | 45 | 53 | 3.92 | $ 6,000,000 |
| Ismael Valdez | 2000 | 61 | 54 | 3.38 | $ 5,737,500 |
| Johan Santana | 2005 | 43 | 18 | 3.47 | $ 4,750,000 |
| Joel Pineiro | 2005 | 43 | 31 | 3.66 | $ 4,700,000 |
| Alex Fernandez | 1996 | 63 | 53 | 3.86 | $ 4,500,000 |
And the highest-paid 26-year-olds overall:
| Name | Yr | Salary |
| Alex Rodriguez | 2002 | $22,000,000 |
| Albert Pujols | 2006 | $14,000,000 |
| Carlos Zambrano | 2007 | $12,400,000 |
| Andruw Jones | 2003 | $12,000,000 |
| Adrian Beltre | 2005 | $11,400,000 |
| Derek Jeter | 2000 | $10,000,000 |
| Vladimir Guerrero | 2002 | $ 8,000,000 |
| Ken Griffey | 1996 | $ 7,650,000 |
| Pedro Martinez | 1998 | $ 7,575,000 |
| Adam Dunn | 2006 | $ 7,500,000 |
| Juan Gonzalez | 1996 | $ 7,425,000 |
| Troy Glaus | 2003 | $ 7,250,000 |
| Jon Garland | 2006 | $ 7,000,000 |
I guess signing Zambrano for that much money is a better gamble than it would be on John Garland. I just can't get over $12.4 M. Consider that the most paid to a 27-year-old pitcher was $11M to Pedro Martinez in 1999 and only six have made over $8M. If Zambrano has a decent year in 2007, how much will he make next year?
I'll let you consider that while I leave you with the highest-paid pitchers at age 27:
| Name | Yr | W | L | ERA | Salary |
| Pedro Martinez | 1999 | 84 | 46 | 2.98 | $11,100,000 |
| Ben Sheets | 2006 | 55 | 62 | 3.83 | $ 9,625,000 |
| Javier Vazquez | 2004 | 64 | 68 | 4.16 | $ 9,000,000 |
| Johan Santana | 2006 | 59 | 25 | 3.31 | $ 8,750,000 |
| Kerry Wood | 2004 | 59 | 41 | 3.62 | $ 8,000,000 |
| Mark Buehrle | 2006 | 85 | 53 | 3.63 | $ 8,000,000 |
| Alex Fernandez | 1997 | 79 | 63 | 3.78 | $ 7,000,000 |
| Joel Pineiro | 2006 | 50 | 42 | 4.11 | $ 6,800,000 |
| Jeff Weaver | 2004 | 51 | 63 | 4.59 | $ 6,250,000 |
| Mark Mulder | 2005 | 81 | 42 | 3.92 | $ 6,050,000 |
| Eric Milton | 2003 | 56 | 51 | 4.80 | $ 6,000,000 |
| Roy Halladay | 2004 | 59 | 31 | 3.84 | $ 6,000,000 |
Since this piece is primarily about salaries, I believe it is probably not right to compare salaries across years and age. I think it is better to
1. adjust for inflation (report all salaries in, say 2006 dollars),
2. adjust for the market in that year (courtesy Gil Meche and Barry Zito).
In other words, where does Zambrano belong in terms of percentile when we study pitchers' salaries as a 26 year old?
Secondly, why are you focusing so much on win total by a pitcher as a determinant of salary? I know you are a very good sabermetrician, so I have to guess you have a reason to not look at peripherals and his upside and predicted performances as a basis for salary, and look at win totals. Is that your assumption about how these markets normally work?
Here's an inflation calculator; I'd run it myself but I don't have the time, and hey, these are your rants.
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