Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
In an offseason of signings that were—to quote Vizzini from the Princess Bride—inconceivable, the Giants may have made the ultimate apoplectic stunner. Barry Zito may have been the best pitcher available in the free agent market, but signing him to a $126M, seven-contract (or $18M per season) is insane.
It's the largest package ever for a pitcher and ties Vernon Wells's ludicrous deal earlier this offseason as the sixth largest ever. It beats out the legendarily atrocious Mike Hampton signing by the Rockies before the 2001 season ($121M, 7 yrs).
Like the rest of the overpriced signings this winter, this deal is the byproduct of the current atmosphere in baseball. Specifically, the owners are currently rolling in the moolah. With a big TV contract set to commence next season, they are using hundred dollar bills to light the thousand dollar bills they are using to read the small print on the hundred million contracts they are dropping like pennies in a wishing well. But more on that another day.
The Zito signing wouldn't even make sense if he had had a string of excellent seasons following his Cy Young year in 2002. He did win 16 games in 2006 with a good ERA of 3.83. But his park-adjusted ERAs since '02 have been good but not great: 129 (or 29% better than the league average), 105, and two straight 116s. There were stretches in that run where Zito looked extremely shaky and seemed on the verge of being traded, The bottom line is that he is indeed a good pitcher but he's far from a staff savior like Johan Santana.
With Zito averaging eighteen million per season, he would have to win at least 18 games to average no more than one million dollars per win—like my fancy ciphering? I would bet, however, that even in a good year, he'll run closer to $2M per season than $1M.
That made me wonder what was the most a team paid a starting pitcher per win. I ram the numbers through 2005, and Zito, barring an injury or a steep decline, wouldn't even be close:
| Player | Yr | W | L | Salary | $perW |
| Chan Ho Park | 2003 | 1 | 3 | $ 13,000,000 | $13,000,000 |
| Steve Trachsel | 2005 | 1 | 4 | $ 6,782,500 | $ 6,782,500 |
| Jose Lima | 2001 | 1 | 2 | $ 6,250,000 | $ 6,250,000 |
| Sterling Hitchcock | 2000 | 1 | 6 | $ 6,100,000 | $ 6,100,000 |
| Eric Milton | 2003 | 1 | 0 | $ 6,000,000 | $ 6,000,000 |
| Kevin Brown | 2002 | 3 | 4 | $ 15,714,286 | $ 5,238,095 |
| Donovan Osborne | 1999 | 1 | 3 | $ 5,080,000 | $ 5,080,000 |
| Bret Saberhagen | 2001 | 1 | 2 | $ 5,000,000 | $ 5,000,000 |
| Jimmy Key | 1995 | 1 | 2 | $ 4,873,700 | $ 4,873,700 |
| Kevin Appier | 1998 | 1 | 2 | $ 4,800,000 | $ 4,800,000 |
| Danny Jackson | 1997 | 1 | 2 | $ 4,600,000 | $ 4,600,000 |
| Denny Neagle | 2003 | 2 | 4 | $ 9,000,000 | $ 4,500,000 |
| Frank Viola | 1994 | 1 | 1 | $ 4,333,334 | $ 4,333,334 |
| Glendon Rusch | 2003 | 1 | 12 | $ 4,250,000 | $ 4,250,000 |
| Kevin Brown | 2005 | 4 | 7 | $ 15,714,286 | $ 3,928,572 |
| Pete Harnisch | 2001 | 1 | 3 | $ 3,750,000 | $ 3,750,000 |
| Paul Wilson | 2005 | 1 | 5 | $ 3,600,000 | $ 3,600,000 |
| Kirk Rueter | 2005 | 2 | 7 | $ 7,133,333 | $ 3,566,667 |
| Chan Ho Park | 2004 | 4 | 7 | $ 14,000,000 | $ 3,500,000 |
| Teddy Higuera | 1994 | 1 | 5 | $ 3,500,000 | $ 3,500,000 |
| Paul Abbott | 2002 | 1 | 3 | $ 3,425,000 | $ 3,425,000 |
| Jason Bere | 2002 | 1 | 10 | $ 3,400,000 | $ 3,400,000 |
| Teddy Higuera | 1993 | 1 | 3 | $ 3,250,000 | $ 3,250,000 |
| Brian Anderson | 2005 | 1 | 2 | $ 3,250,000 | $ 3,250,000 |
| Byung-Hyun Kim | 2003 | 1 | 5 | $ 3,250,000 | $ 3,250,000 |
| Darren Dreifort | 2003 | 4 | 4 | $ 12,400,000 | $ 3,100,000 |
| Mike Hampton | 2005 | 5 | 3 | $ 15,125,000 | $ 3,025,000 |
| David Cone | 2000 | 4 | 14 | $ 12,000,000 | $ 3,000,000 |
| Andy Ashby | 2001 | 2 | 0 | $ 6,000,000 | $ 3,000,000 |
However, let's say Zito has a typical year and wins at least ten or so games. He has a pretty good chance to top the list for pitchers with at least ten wins:
| Player | Yr | W | L | Salary | $perW |
| Kevin Brown | 2004 | 10 | 6 | $ 15,714,286 | $ 1,571,429 |
| Kevin Brown | 2001 | 10 | 4 | $ 15,714,286 | $ 1,571,429 |
| Mike Mussina | 2005 | 13 | 8 | $ 19,000,000 | $ 1,461,538 |
| Roger Clemens | 2005 | 13 | 8 | $ 18,000,000 | $ 1,384,615 |
| Mike Mussina | 2004 | 12 | 9 | $ 16,000,000 | $ 1,333,333 |
| Kevin Brown | 2000 | 13 | 6 | $ 15,714,286 | $ 1,208,791 |
| Mike Hampton | 2004 | 13 | 9 | $ 14,625,000 | $ 1,125,000 |
| Kevin Brown | 2003 | 14 | 9 | $ 15,714,286 | $ 1,122,449 |
| Pedro Martinez | 2003 | 14 | 4 | $ 15,500,000 | $ 1,107,143 |
| Pedro Martinez | 2004 | 16 | 9 | $ 17,500,000 | $ 1,093,750 |
| Al Leiter | 2004 | 10 | 8 | $ 10,295,600 | $ 1,029,560 |
| Randy Johnson | 2004 | 16 | 14 | $ 16,000,000 | $ 1,000,000 |
| Javier Vazquez | 2005 | 11 | 15 | $ 11,000,000 | $ 1,000,000 |
| Tom Glavine | 2004 | 11 | 14 | $ 10,765,608 | $ 978,692 |
| Brad Radke | 2004 | 11 | 8 | $ 10,750,000 | $ 977,273 |
| Mike Hampton | 2003 | 14 | 8 | $ 13,625,000 | $ 973,214 |
| Matt Morris | 2003 | 11 | 8 | $ 10,500,000 | $ 954,545 |
| Randy Johnson | 2005 | 17 | 8 | $ 16,000,000 | $ 941,176 |
| Greg Maddux | 2003 | 16 | 11 | $ 14,750,000 | $ 921,875 |
| Al Leiter | 2001 | 11 | 11 | $ 9,750,000 | $ 886,364 |
On the other hand, I don't think it's the Mike Hampton/Chan Ho disaster waiting to happen. Both Hampton and Park were moving from strong pitchers' parks to fairly extreme hitters' parks. Where Zito, a flyballer, is moving to ATT which should help him even a bit more when it comes to HR's allowed than Oakland.
I think the downside is either injury and/or that Zito hovers around leag avg for duration of this deal. If he's around leag avg, then salary inflation takes some of the bite out in yrs 5-7, when $ 18 mil per, while still too much, isn't as over-the-top.
It's not that the deal totally lacks upside either. If Zito becomes craftier, is able to improve his control and learns how to use his park effectively, he could hover around 3.20 -3.70 ERA over a good portion of this contract.
The chances are he's closer to leag avg, which is what makes this extravagant and likely not a good signing. But for all of the above reasons, don't think it's a crazy deal.
Not that I mind the notion of the Jints overpaying, but the mind-boggling figures we see this year are not going to be well understood for a few years, at least.
Let's say the market is up 50% this year (as Nate Silver (?) suggested last time I checked ... it went from 30% up to 70% up back to 50% up). If that's the case, the Jints are "only" paying about $12M per year in 2006 contract-dollars.
Sure, that still seems steep if you think Zito is just a bit above average, but not so nakedly stupid, either, especially if you ride an optimistic progression about durability...
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