Baseball Toaster Mike's Baseball Rants
Help
This is my site with my opinions, but I hope that, like Irish Spring, you like it, too.
Frozen Toast
Search
Google Search
Web
Toaster
Mike's Baseball Rants
Archives

2009
01 

2008
10  09  07 
06  05  04  03 

2007
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2006
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2005
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2004
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2003
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2002
12  11  10  09  08  07 
Links to MBBR
Game 7—Seventh Heaven or Severe Hype?
2006-10-19 18:26
by Mike Carminati

As the Mets and Cardinals prepare for game seven of the National League Championship Series, I am left to wonder if we will get more magic game seven moments like Aaron Boone's 11th inning home run in the 2003 ALCS, two balls skipping over Fred Lindstrom's head—one in the twelfth inning that lost the game—in the 1924 World Series, Jack Morris's ten-inning shutout in the 1991 World Series, Snodgrass's muff in the 1912 World Series, Maz's homer in the bottom of the ninth in the 1960 Series, and Francisco Cabrera's two-out game-winner in the ninth in the 1992 ALCS.

Great moments all, but no one ever mentions the Braves 15-0 drubbing of the Cards in the seventh game of 1996 NLCS or the Royals anticlimactic 11-0 game seven win over the Cards in the 1985 Series. How about Johnny Kucks and the Yankees pummeling Don Newcombe and the Dodgers 9-0 in the 1956 World Series, the Bums last playoff game in Brooklyn? Nope, it never gets a mention even with Yogi Berra hitting two homers and Moose Skowron hitting the first grand slam in World Series history.

So does Game Seven live up to its billing or is it just another playoff game that gets over-hyped? I know the "winner takes all" quality adds another layer to the game, but does game seven actually live up to those expectations? Let's call it the Chuck D theory. You know, "Don't believe the hype."

Well, how does game seven compare to other playoff games? Does it produce closer, and therefore, more exciting baseball games? One would assume that the teams are more closely matched given that they have to go to the full slate of games to determine a winner. They should be the closest games of a series, at least on average, right?

Let's put it to the test. Below are the average scores for each game in a five-, seven-, and nine-game playoff series. For each the average margin of victory and number of games are also listed. At the bottom are the overall averages, the average in the final game of series in which the full slate were played (i.e., 5 games in a 5-game series, 7 in a 7-game series), and finally the average in deciding game in all series:

BestOfGame# Avg Winner R Avg Loser R Avg MoVCount
51 5.85 2.32 3.52 84
52 5.58 2.30 3.29 84
53 5.73 2.26 3.46 84
54 6.33 2.83 3.50 52
55 5.19 2.81 2.38 26
71 5.02 2.24 2.78 140*
72 5.51 2.14 3.37 138
73 5.45 2.38 3.07 138
74 5.35 2.52 2.83 138
75 5.45 2.30 3.16 115
76 6.09 2.57 3.51 82
77 5.54 1.98 3.57 46
91 5.50 1.25 4.25 4
92 3.25 0.50 2.75 4
93 5.50 2.00 3.50 4
94 4.00 1.75 2.25 4
95 6.75 1.00 5.75 4
96 5.00 3.00 2.00 4
97 4.00 1.25 2.75 4
98 4.67 1.67 3.00 3
Overall 5.52 2.33 3.18 1159**
Full series 5.42 2.28 3.14 72
Final G Overall 5.56 2.34 3.21 225

(Note: * = includes two tie ballgames, **=includes three ties)

Apparently, game seven has produced the largest margin of victory on average (3.57 runs) of any game in a seven-game series. It's the only game of the seven in which the losing team scores less than two runs on average.

The average margin of victory in a "full slate" game is slightly closer overall than the average deciding game (3.14 runs vs. 3.21 runs), but that is largely due to game five numbers in a five-game series. In those games on average, the winning team just nudges past the loser by 2.38 runs (5.19-2.81). That's the lowest average margin of victory for any game in a five- or seven-game series.

So Game Seven has created some great moments, but there's no reason to expect anything more than any other playoff game. That might especially be the case when Oliver Perez and Jeff Suppan constitute the pitching matchup.

Also, the Mets should be happy to have the homefield advantage for game seven, but if history means anything, again, homefield means nothing more in game seven than in any other game. Actually, game one has been the one most dominated by the home team:

BestOfGame#Home WHome LPCT
514242.500
525034.595
534539.536
542923.558
551412.538
718060.571
727563.543
737464.536
747167.514
755956.513
764636.561
772521.543
9113.250
92401.000
9331.750
9422.500
9513.250
9613.250
9722.500
9812.333
Overall625533.540

Finally, I leave you with the all the one-run wins in a game seven. Let's hope tonight's game is good enough to join the list:

YrDateRoundWinnerRWinnerLoserRLoserExtraMoVHome/Away
1924Oct-10WSWashington Senators4New York Giants3121H
2003Oct-16ALCSNew York Yankees6Boston Red Sox5111H
1997Oct-26WSFlorida Marlins3Cleveland Indians2111H
1991Oct-27WSMinnesota Twins1Atlanta Braves0101H
1912Oct-16WSBoston Red Sox3New York Giants2101H
2001Nov-04WSArizona Diamondbacks3New York Yankees2 1H
1992Oct-14NLCSAtlanta Braves3Pittsburgh Pirates2 1H
1975Oct-22WSCincinnati Reds4Boston Red Sox3 1A
1972Oct-22WSOakland Athletics3Cincinnati Reds2 1A
1971Oct-17WSPittsburgh Pirates2Baltimore Orioles1 1A
1962Oct-16WSNew York Yankees1San Francisco Giants0 1A
1960Oct-13WSPittsburgh Pirates10New York Yankees9 1H
1946Oct-15WSSt. Louis Cardinals4Boston Red Sox3 1H
1940Oct-08WSCincinnati Reds2Detroit Tigers1 1H
1926Oct-10WSSt. Louis Cardinals3New York Yankees2 1A
Comments
2006-10-19 19:10:46
1.   das411
Don't worry Mike, this just became The Endy Chavez Game.

Or not, ask again in 3 more innings...

Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.