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What A Mench!
2006-04-30 19:06
by Mike Carminati

Kevin Mench ended his quest for the all-time consecutive game home run record last night, falling just one short. He did become one of six men all-time to homer in seven consecutive games, which after all aint bad.

Here are all streaks of six or more games:

Player Consecutive Games with HRsTotal HRsTeamDates
Dale Long88Pittsburgh5/19 - 5/28/1956
Don Mattingly810NY Yankees7/8 - 7/18/1987
Ken Griffey, Jr.88Seattle7/20 - 7/28/1993
Jim Thome77Cleveland6/25 - 7/3/2002
Barry Bonds78San Francisco4/12 - 4/20/2004
Kevin Mench77Texas4/21 - 4/28/2006
Ken Williams66StL Browns7/28 - 8/2/1922
George Kelly67NY Giants7/11 - 7/16/1924
Lou Gehrig66NY Yankees8/28 - 9/1/1931
Walker Cooper67NY Giants6/22 - 6/28/1947
Willie Mays67NY Giants9/14 - 9/20/1955
Roy Sievers66Washington7/29 - 8/3/1957
Roger Maris67NY Yankees8/11 - 8/16/1961
Frank Howard610Washington5/12 - 5/18/1968
Reggie Jackson66Baltimore7/18 - 7/23/1976
Graig Nettles67San Diego8/11 - 8/22/1984
Barry Bonds66San Francisco4/12 - 4/18/2001
Barry Bonds69San Francisco5/17 - 5/22/2001

I thought it might be interesting to look at the players with the best odds of homering in six or eight consecutive games using logic similar to what I used in the Rollins' hit streak earlier this month. Here were the best player years:

NameYrGHRTPABAOBPSLUGOPS8-G Streak6-G Streak
Barry Bonds200115373664.328.515.8631.3799.21%58.90%
Mark McGwire199815570681.299.470.7521.2226.43%45.13%
Mark McGwire199915365661.278.424.6971.1204.22%32.83%
Sammy Sosa199815966722.308.377.6471.0243.68%29.91%
Sammy Sosa200116064711.328.437.7371.1742.95%25.36%
Sammy Sosa199916263712.288.367.6351.0022.44%22.06%
Mark McGwire199613052548.312.467.7301.1982.40%20.64%
Roger Maris196116161698.269.372.620.9932.03%19.23%
Mark McGwire199715658657.274.393.6461.0391.76%17.12%
Matt Williams199411243483.267.319.607.9261.53%14.16%
Ken Griffey199715756704.304.382.6461.0281.31%13.73%
Luis Gonzalez200116257728.325.429.6881.1171.23%13.24%
Mark McGwire199510439422.274.441.6851.1251.23%11.84%
Alex Rodriguez200216257725.300.392.6231.0151.23%13.18%
Mickey Mantle196115354646.317.448.6871.1351.20%12.74%
Jim Thome200214752613.304.445.6771.1221.18%12.48%
Ken Griffey199816156720.284.365.611.9771.12%12.33%
Albert Belle199514350629.317.401.6901.0911.03%11.23%
Mickey Mantle195615052652.353.464.7051.1691.03%11.30%
Ken Griffey199614049638.303.392.6281.0201.01%10.99%
Juan Gonzalez199613447592.314.368.6431.0110.99%10.67%
Ken Griffey199411140493.323.402.6741.0760.98%10.12%
Barry Bonds200313045550.341.529.7491.2780.92%10.02%
Barry Bonds200014349607.306.440.6881.1270.91%10.24%

Bonds in 2001 had the best odds of getting a six-game streak, and you'll notice that he did it twice. Now here are the odds for the players who did in fact hit a home run in six or more straight games:

NameYrHRTPABAOBPSLUGOPS8-G Streak6-G Streak
Barry Bonds200173664.328.515.8631.3798.76%56.75%
Roger Maris196161698.269.372.620.9932.02%19.14%
Jim Thome200252613.304.445.6771.1221.15%12.27%
Willie Mays195551670.319.400.6591.0590.82%9.56%
Barry Bonds200445617.362.609.8121.4220.40%5.59%
Lou Gehrig193146738.341.446.6621.1080.35%5.07%
Ken Griffey199345691.309.408.6171.0250.29%4.41%
Frank Howard196844663.274.338.552.8900.23%3.75%
Roy Sievers195742657.301.388.579.9670.21%3.44%
Ken Williams192239678.332.413.6271.0400.12%2.24%
Walker Cooper194735546.305.339.586.9260.10%1.88%
Don Mattingly198730629.327.378.559.9370.03%0.77%
Reggie Jackson197627558.277.351.502.8530.02%0.54%
Dale Long195627582.263.326.485.8120.01%0.35%
Graig Nettles198420465.228.329.413.7420.00%0.15%
George Kelly192421627.324.371.531.9020.00%0.10%
Kevin Mench2006776.275.335.493.8280.00%0.05%

You may also notice how precipitously the odds fall from six- to eight-game streaks. Dale Long must be the luckiest guy in the world.

Comments
2006-04-30 20:08:57
1.   tom yf
Maybe that's where the phrase "it's a Long shot" came from.

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