Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
In an attempt to put the Grady Sizemore contract in context, I want to project its impact given a variety of scenarios.
First, there's the Lyman Bostock scenario—Sizemore is hit by a bus, never plays again, and retires to Miami on the $24M the Indians owe him. This is what I would term a bad outcome for Cleveland. The Indians would buy him out in 2012 for $500K instead of $8.5 M. He record no further Win Shares for his career (it currently stands at 25).
Next, let's assume he plays out his contract but never again plays at the high level he displayed in 2005. Let's call that the Rick Manning scenario (to give Joe Charboneau a break—besides Manning was a center fielder, looked like a future All-Star when he came up, but had a long replacement-level career in Cleveland and Milwaukee). Again, the Indians buy out his contract for 2012. His Win Share total would increase by the replacement-level value of ten per year (for six years, that's 60 WS or 85 in total).
The third scenario is that Sizemore remains an All-Star caliber player throughout the remainder of the contract. The Indians use their 2012 option ($8.5M). Let's call that the Albert Belle scenario. His Win Shares would increase by around 20, to be conservative, each year for a total of 165 by the end of the contract (his current 25 please 20 per year for seven years).
The final scenario is that Sizemore becomes (or remains) one of the best center fielder in the game for the remainder of the contract. The Indians happily use their 2012 option. His Win Shares go up by about thirty per year for 235 by the end of his contract (25 plus 30 per year for seven years). We'll call that the Earl Averill scenario in honor of the Hall of Fame Indian center fielder.
Here's a summary of how the scenarios play out:
| Player | Salary Under 30 | Win Shares | $/WS |
| Grady Sizemore--Bostock | $ 23,768,300 | 25 | $ 950,732 |
| Grady Sizemore--Manning | $ 23,768,300 | 85 | $ 279,627 |
| Grady Sizemore--Belle | $ 31,768,300 | 165 | $ 192,535 |
| Grady Sizemore-- Averill | $ 31,768,300 | 235 | $ 135,184 |
Obviously, the first scenario would be tragic for the Indians and the final one would be ideal. But how do the other two, more realistic scenarios in the middle play out for them?
We need to put them in context. I summed the salary and Win Share numbers for all players under the age of thirty (min 10 WS). Here are the under-30 players who cost the most and delivered the least:
| Player | Salary Under 30 | Win Shares | $/WS |
| Matt Mantei | $ 18,319,999 | 27 | $ 678,518 |
| Kazuo Matsui | $ 12,066,666 | 19 | $ 635,088 |
| Darren Dreifort | $ 16,148,000 | 34 | $ 474,941 |
| Eric Milton | $ 27,178,333 | 62 | $ 438,360 |
| Hideki Irabu | $ 5,250,000 | 12 | $ 437,500 |
| Jaret Wright | $ 15,606,667 | 36 | $ 433,519 |
| Jeff Weaver | $ 20,375,000 | 47 | $ 433,511 |
| Felix Heredia | $ 5,962,000 | 14 | $ 425,857 |
| Glendon Rusch | $ 9,220,000 | 23 | $ 400,870 |
| Kerry Wood | $ 30,185,000 | 76 | $ 397,171 |
| Alex Rodriguez | $ 126,027,000 | 318 | $ 396,311 |
| Danys Baez | $ 14,750,000 | 38 | $ 388,158 |
| Jose Lima | $ 15,325,444 | 40 | $ 383,136 |
| Matt Morris | $ 29,200,000 | 79 | $ 369,620 |
| Jermaine Dye | $ 21,907,334 | 61 | $ 359,137 |
| Sidney Ponson | $ 17,070,000 | 48 | $ 355,625 |
| Kevin Millwood | $ 28,725,000 | 82 | $ 350,305 |
| Odalis Perez | $ 13,945,000 | 41 | $ 340,122 |
| Carl Pavano | $ 16,250,000 | 48 | $ 338,542 |
| Javier Vazquez | $ 33,410,000 | 99 | $ 337,475 |
| Carlos Perez | $ 7,985,666 | 24 | $ 332,736 |
| Dustin Hermanson | $ 17,287,999 | 52 | $ 332,462 |
| Fernando Tatis | $ 14,920,000 | 45 | $ 331,556 |
| Joe Mays | $ 14,450,000 | 44 | $ 328,409 |
If the Bostock scenario plays out, Sizemore deal would be the worst of the bunch above. However, given the more realistic Manning scenario, Sizemore would be rank 40th in dollars-per-Win Shares for players under thirty. That's bad but far from Kaz Matsui territory. Actually, it puts him right between a couple of other fairly successful center fielders:
| Player | Salary Under 30 | Win Shares | $/WS |
| Andruw Jones | $ 60,206,500 | 215 | $ 280,030 |
| Preston Wilson | $ 20,488,000 | 76 | $ 269,579 |
To put the Belle scenario in context, here are the other players who would be within $10K per WS of Sizemore:
| Player | Salary Under 30 | Win Shares | $/WS |
| Jose Silva | $ 2,230,000 | 11 | $ 202,727 |
| Johnny Damon | $ 28,939,000 | 143 | $ 202,371 |
| Ben McDonald | $ 16,658,334 | 83 | $ 200,703 |
| Juan Encarnacion | $ 13,013,000 | 65 | $ 200,200 |
| Josh Beckett | $ 7,790,625 | 39 | $ 199,760 |
| Dwight Gooden | $ 27,120,002 | 136 | $ 199,412 |
| Eric Munson | $ 3,187,500 | 16 | $ 199,219 |
| John Smiley | $ 14,140,000 | 71 | $ 199,155 |
| Wes Helms | $ 5,535,000 | 28 | $ 197,679 |
| Nomar Garciaparra | $ 33,684,000 | 171 | $ 196,982 |
| Shawn Estes | $ 9,055,500 | 46 | $ 196,859 |
| Mark Prior | $ 8,150,000 | 42 | $ 194,048 |
| Kirk Rueter | $ 9,295,000 | 48 | $ 193,646 |
| A.J. Burnett | $ 9,671,500 | 50 | $ 193,430 |
| Jesus Sanchez | $ 2,125,000 | 11 | $ 193,182 |
| Mitch Williams | $ 12,462,500 | 65 | $ 191,731 |
| C.C. Sabathia | $ 9,750,000 | 51 | $ 191,176 |
| Brad Penny | $ 7,812,500 | 41 | $ 190,549 |
| Ken Griffey | $ 52,272,731 | 275 | $ 190,083 |
| Adrian Beltre | $ 25,540,000 | 135 | $ 189,185 |
| Steve Trachsel | $ 10,958,500 | 58 | $ 188,940 |
| Pedro Astacio | $ 11,486,000 | 61 | $ 188,295 |
| D'Angelo Jimenez | $ 4,485,000 | 24 | $ 186,875 |
| Jason Johnson | $ 5,590,000 | 30 | $ 186,333 |
| Darin Erstad | $ 20,975,000 | 113 | $ 185,619 |
| Sammy Sosa | $ 27,000,000 | 146 | $ 184,932 |
| Ted Lilly | $ 5,536,000 | 30 | $ 184,533 |
| Dave Nilsson | $ 13,764,133 | 75 | $ 183,522 |
| Esteban Loaiza | $ 6,184,000 | 34 | $ 181,882 |
| Melido Perez | $ 11,392,000 | 63 | $ 180,825 |
| Carlos Beltran | $ 22,046,429 | 122 | $ 180,708 |
For the Averill scenario, I ranked just the players with 175 Win Shares or more before the age of 30. Here are the cheapest from that group:
| Player | Salary Under 30 | Win Shares | $/WS |
| Darryl Strawberry | $ 11,171,667 | 177 | $ 63,117 |
| Barry Bonds | $ 18,373,332 | 273 | $ 67,302 |
| Will Clark | $ 16,650,000 | 222 | $ 75,000 |
| Roger Clemens | $ 14,785,250 | 185 | $ 79,920 |
| Albert Pujols | $ 19,700,000 | 180 | $ 109,444 |
| Frank Thomas | $ 26,060,000 | 219 | $ 118,995 |
| Chipper Jones | $ 24,381,333 | 186 | $ 131,082 |
| Edgardo Alfonzo | $ 25,229,000 | 186 | $ 135,640 |
| Greg Maddux | $ 24,745,000 | 180 | $ 137,472 |
| Scott Rolen | $ 26,509,000 | 186 | $ 142,522 |
| Miguel Tejada | $ 27,617,000 | 189 | $ 146,122 |
| Manny Ramirez | $ 28,070,000 | 192 | $ 146,198 |
| Roberto Alomar | $ 31,323,758 | 212 | $ 147,754 |
| Ken Griffey | $ 52,272,731 | 275 | $ 190,083 |
| Ivan Rodriguez | $ 46,910,000 | 200 | $ 234,550 |
| Vladimir Guerrero | $ 53,930,000 | 222 | $ 242,928 |
| Andruw Jones | $ 60,206,500 | 215 | $ 280,030 |
| Derek Jeter | $ 59,230,000 | 192 | $ 308,490 |
| Alex Rodriguez | $ 126,027,000 | 318 | $ 396,311 |
My conclusion? It's a good deal for the Indians with a bigger potential upside than downside. Now, let's regroup in 2013 and see how it turned out.
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