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Put Me In Coach, I'm Ready To Play….Left Field
2006-03-23 13:49
So Alfonso Soriano is now ready to play the same position as such defensive luminaries as Greg Luzinski, Manny Ramirez, and Ron Kittle, at least for one day. If he is ready to assume the position and, Kevin Bacon-like, affirm, "Thank you, sir. May I have another,"game in left field, that isthe issue of his free agent value being diminished by the decision still looms. Being a putz myself, I wondered if a second baseman moving to left field would affect his value on the open market. The only problem is that the only player in baseball history who went from being a starting second baseman one season to a starting left fielder the next was Chuck Knoblauch, and he had extenuating circumstances (like a Mackey Sasser-like inability to make simple throws). Knoblauch did go from a $6M per year contract with the Yankees to a $2M one-year contract with the Royals, one year after shifting to left, but he was 33 and in the midst of a very rapid decline. So without a history of comparable player moves affecting a player's worth, I have to resort to the actual values of players whose primary position is left field as opposed to those who are second baseman. I selected all players with a primary defensive position of either second or left who were active from 2001-2005 (the years in which Soriano has been a starter). I looked at only those seasons in which they played just those positions and just those players who had at least three years primary at those positions over the past five seasons. For each I averaged the batting Win Shares and salary. I removed the defensive component so that we were comparing left field oranges to second base oranges. Here they are sorted by average batting Win Shares (min. 5 BWS average). Soriano was 11th among all the playersm, but second among second basemen, though slightly ahead of a whole back of second sackers:
Now, here are the same players sorted by average annual salary. Not that Soriano is 25th and 11th among second basemen, though his arbitration money had yet kicked in (min. $2M annual salary):
Now, here's the entire group sorted by batting Win Share per each million dollar of the player's salary. Soriano has been one of the cheaper players, but again this predates his Amigo Money for 2006:
There a couple of check young left fielders at or near the top of the list, but for the most part the cheapest players are second basemen. That made me wonder what the average for all players on the list were per position. Here 'tis:
So second basemen are usually better values, but left fielders produce more offensively (surprise!) and are paid almost twice as much. So what does this mean for Soriano? He probably wouldn't be among the highest-paid left fielders. His production is about average for the position. However, since left fielders make so much more than second baseman, the money he'll lose by going from the top end of second basemen to the middle of the left field pack will be made up for by the difference each position is paid. My prediction is that he'll make the same amount of money either way. You may notice that his $10M in 2006 would be toward the high end for either position. I don't expect him to make that much annually in his next deal, but that might have more to do with a market adjustment than a change of position. Then again, the odd idiotic GMWayne Krivsky, are you listening?might be easier to sway by a high-end second baseman than by a fair-to-middling left fielder, even though they are both worth about the same to the team. Think about your fantasy league opponents salivating over Soriano until he no longer qualifies at second base. Again, life reflects roto baseball.
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Jeff Kent in his late 30's signed a two year $17 million contract with the Astros and then signed a two year $16 million contract with the Dodgers. Look at some top middle infielders contracts signed in the last three years; Orlando Cabrera and Jimmy Rollins each got $8 million per year for 4 and 5 year commitments respectively, Renteria signed for $40 million over 4 years, Furcal and Tejada signed for $13 million per for 3 and 6 years. His teammate Jose Vidro signed a below market deal that garantee's him 3 years at $7.5 million per year. Most of those players are somewhat different than Soriano (they can play defense) but he would be considered an elite middle infield free agent and this is what those players get paid. We havent seen an allstar 2B free agent in his prime in a while, but I think that only serves to help Soriano's case.
He'd probably be looking at ~$10 million per year and at least a 3-4 year commitment. I doubt seriously that he could command a similar offer as a left fielder.
You could have saved yourself a lot of math if you'd asked yourself the question "Exactly how much are teams willing to pay for Sori's 2B skills?"
Soriano:
2B +1.25 SD, $6.04M
LF -0.07 SD, $5.45M
[Soriano is 1.25 standard deviations above average as a Second Baseman, translating into a $6.04M salary (if BWS and salary were so neatly correlated in reality.)
Soriano is 0.07 standard deviations below average as a Left Fielder, translating into a $5.45M salary.]
I agree that I'd like to see a more comparable sample, though. We shouldn't include data points that are from people who aren't under contracts signed as free agents, at the least, because this is a question about what a market will pay for a LF versus for a 2B.
Also, I maintain that one year at LF does not a Left fielder make. If a team has a hole at 2B, what's to stop them from signing Soriano to fill it?
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