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Put Me In Coach, I'm Ready To Play….Left Field
2006-03-23 13:49
by Mike Carminati

So Alfonso Soriano is now ready to play the same position as such defensive luminaries as Greg Luzinski, Manny Ramirez, and Ron Kittle, at least for one day. If he is ready to assume the position and, Kevin Bacon-like, affirm, "Thank you, sir. May I have another,"—game in left field, that is—the issue of his free agent value being diminished by the decision still looms.

Being a putz myself, I wondered if a second baseman moving to left field would affect his value on the open market. The only problem is that the only player in baseball history who went from being a starting second baseman one season to a starting left fielder the next was Chuck Knoblauch, and he had extenuating circumstances (like a Mackey Sasser-like inability to make simple throws). Knoblauch did go from a $6M per year contract with the Yankees to a $2M one-year contract with the Royals, one year after shifting to left, but he was 33 and in the midst of a very rapid decline.

So without a history of comparable player moves affecting a player's worth, I have to resort to the actual values of players whose primary position is left field as opposed to those who are second baseman.

I selected all players with a primary defensive position of either second or left who were active from 2001-2005 (the years in which Soriano has been a starter). I looked at only those seasons in which they played just those positions and just those players who had at least three years primary at those positions over the past five seasons.

For each I averaged the batting Win Shares and salary. I removed the defensive component so that we were comparing left field oranges to second base oranges. Here they are sorted by average batting Win Shares (min. 5 BWS average). Soriano was 11th among all the playersm, but second among second basemen, though slightly ahead of a whole back of second sackers:

PlayerPosAvg BWSAvg $
Barry BondsLF37.55 $16,160,000
Manny RamirezLF27.03 $19,990,682
Hideki MatsuiLF21.93 $ 7,000,000
Adam DunnLF21.77 $ 1,423,750
Luis GonzalezLF20.99 $ 6,300,000
Jeff Kent2B20.31 $ 7,370,000
Cliff FloydLF17.76 $ 6,279,214
Garret AndersonLF17.18 $ 6,112,500
Carlos LeeLF16.73 $ 4,360,000
Moises AlouLF16.64 $ 8,062,500
Alfonso Soriano2B15.99 $ 2,992,000
Carl CrawfordLF15.89 $ 330,000
Mark Loretta2B15.52 $ 2,500,000
Bret Boone2B15.03 $ 7,250,000
Craig Biggio2B14.46 $ 6,500,000
Marcus Giles2B14.04 $ 826,625
Jose Vidro2B13.76 $ 5,200,000
Ray Durham2B13.61 $ 7,150,000
Pat BurrellLF13.13 $ 3,312,000
Luis Castillo2B13.11 $ 4,041,667
Jacque JonesLF12.84 $ 1,112,500
Shannon StewartLF12.77 $ 4,483,333
Todd Walker2B11.84 $ 2,437,500
Mark Bellhorn2B11.08 $ 1,154,667
Frank CatalanottoLF10.80 $ 2,105,000
Geoff JenkinsLF10.50 $ 4,575,000
Mark Grudzielanek2B9.61 $ 3,600,000
Placido Polanco2B9.59 $ 3,808,333
Rondell WhiteLF9.00 $ 3,625,000
Ron Belliard2B8.28 $ 1,207,000
Adam Kennedy2B8.25 $ 1,685,000
Orlando Hudson2B8.05 $ 333,333
Brian JordanLF8.01 $ 5,600,000
Fernando Vina2B7.35 $ 4,250,000
Marlon Anderson2B6.98 $ 470,000
Junior Spivey2B6.97 $ 1,284,875
Terrence LongLF6.69 $ 3,541,667
Damion Easley2B6.08 $ 3,093,750
Jerry Hairston2B5.92 $ 695,000
Keith Ginter2B5.82 $ 422,555

Now, here are the same players sorted by average annual salary. Not that Soriano is 25th and 11th among second basemen, though his arbitration money had yet kicked in (min. $2M annual salary):

PlayerPosAvg BWSAvg $
Manny RamirezLF27.03 $19,990,682
Barry BondsLF37.55 $16,160,000
Moises AlouLF16.64 $ 8,062,500
Jeff Kent2B20.31 $ 7,370,000
Bret Boone2B15.03 $ 7,250,000
Ray Durham2B13.61 $ 7,150,000
Hideki MatsuiLF21.93 $ 7,000,000
Craig Biggio2B14.46 $ 6,500,000
Luis GonzalezLF20.99 $ 6,300,000
Cliff FloydLF17.76 $ 6,279,214
Garret AndersonLF17.18 $ 6,112,500
Brian JordanLF8.01 $ 5,600,000
Jose Vidro2B13.76 $ 5,200,000
Geoff JenkinsLF10.50 $ 4,575,000
Shannon StewartLF12.77 $ 4,483,333
Carlos LeeLF16.73 $ 4,360,000
Fernando Vina2B7.35 $ 4,250,000
Luis Castillo2B13.11 $ 4,041,667
Placido Polanco2B9.59 $ 3,808,333
Rondell WhiteLF9.00 $ 3,625,000
Mark Grudzielanek2B9.61 $ 3,600,000
Terrence LongLF6.69 $ 3,541,667
Pat BurrellLF13.13 $ 3,312,000
Damion Easley2B6.08 $ 3,093,750
Alfonso Soriano2B15.99 $ 2,992,000
Mark Loretta2B15.52 $ 2,500,000
Todd Walker2B11.84 $ 2,437,500
Frank CatalanottoLF10.80 $ 2,105,000

Now, here's the entire group sorted by batting Win Share per each million dollar of the player's salary. Soriano has been one of the cheaper players, but again this predates his Amigo Money for 2006:

PlayerPosAvg BWSAvg $ BWS/$1M
Carl CrawfordLF15.89 $ 330,000 48.14
Orlando Hudson2B8.05 $ 333,333 24.15
Marcus Giles2B14.04 $ 826,625 16.98
Adam DunnLF21.77 $ 1,423,750 15.29
Marlon Anderson2B6.98 $ 470,000 14.84
Keith Ginter2B5.82 $ 422,555 13.78
Jacque JonesLF12.84 $ 1,112,500 11.54
Mark Bellhorn2B11.08 $ 1,154,667 9.60
Frank Menechino2B3.23 $ 376,125 8.59
Jerry Hairston2B5.92 $ 695,000 8.52
Damian Jackson2B4.14 $ 533,333 7.77
Ron Belliard2B8.28 $ 1,207,000 6.86
Mark Loretta2B15.52 $ 2,500,000 6.21
Junior Spivey2B6.97 $ 1,284,875 5.42
Alfonso Soriano2B15.99 $ 2,992,000 5.35
Tomas Perez2B2.63 $ 501,667 5.24
Frank CatalanottoLF10.80 $ 2,105,000 5.13
Adam Kennedy2B8.25 $ 1,685,000 4.89
Todd Walker2B11.84 $ 2,437,500 4.86
Miguel Cairo2B3.97 $ 883,333 4.49
Dave Berg2B2.53 $ 579,167 4.37
Nick Punto2B1.28 $ 310,833 4.13
Pat BurrellLF13.13 $ 3,312,000 3.97
Carlos LeeLF16.73 $ 4,360,000 3.84
Luis GonzalezLF20.99 $ 6,300,000 3.33
Luis Castillo2B13.11 $ 4,041,667 3.24
Hideki MatsuiLF21.93 $ 7,000,000 3.13
Carlos Febles2B1.82 $ 620,000 2.94
Shannon StewartLF12.77 $ 4,483,333 2.85
Cliff FloydLF17.76 $ 6,279,214 2.83
Garret AndersonLF17.18 $ 6,112,500 2.81
Keith Lockhart2B1.76 $ 633,333 2.78
Jeff Kent2B20.31 $ 7,370,000 2.76
Mark Grudzielanek2B9.61 $ 3,600,000 2.67
Luis Rivas2B2.07 $ 781,000 2.66
Jose Vidro2B13.76 $ 5,200,000 2.65
Placido Polanco2B9.59 $ 3,808,333 2.52
Rondell WhiteLF9.00 $ 3,625,000 2.48
Barry BondsLF37.55 $16,160,000 2.32
Geoff JenkinsLF10.50 $ 4,575,000 2.30
Craig Biggio2B14.46 $ 6,500,000 2.23
Terry Shumpert2B1.27 $ 600,000 2.11
Bret Boone2B15.03 $ 7,250,000 2.07
Moises AlouLF16.64 $ 8,062,500 2.06
Todd HollandsworthLF3.46 $ 1,716,667 2.01
Damion Easley2B6.08 $ 3,093,750 1.96
Abraham Nunez2B0.96 $ 500,000 1.93
Ray Durham2B13.61 $ 7,150,000 1.90
Terrence LongLF6.69 $ 3,541,667 1.89
Fernando Vina2B7.35 $ 4,250,000 1.73
Brian JordanLF8.01 $ 5,600,000 1.43
Manny RamirezLF27.03 $19,990,682 1.35

There a couple of check young left fielders at or near the top of the list, but for the most part the cheapest players are second basemen. That made me wonder what the average for all players on the list were per position. Here 'tis:

PositionAvg BWSAvg $ BWS/$1M
2B8.73 $ 2,495,361 3.50
LF16.44 $ 5,830,606 2.82

So second basemen are usually better values, but left fielders produce more offensively (surprise!) and are paid almost twice as much.

So what does this mean for Soriano? He probably wouldn't be among the highest-paid left fielders. His production is about average for the position. However, since left fielders make so much more than second baseman, the money he'll lose by going from the top end of second basemen to the middle of the left field pack will be made up for by the difference each position is paid. My prediction is that he'll make the same amount of money either way.

You may notice that his $10M in 2006 would be toward the high end for either position. I don't expect him to make that much annually in his next deal, but that might have more to do with a market adjustment than a change of position. Then again, the odd idiotic GM—Wayne Krivsky, are you listening?—might be easier to sway by a high-end second baseman than by a fair-to-middling left fielder, even though they are both worth about the same to the team. Think about your fantasy league opponents salivating over Soriano until he no longer qualifies at second base. Again, life reflects roto baseball.

Comments
2006-03-23 14:42:51
1.   sanchez101
Shouldnt you look at the contracts comparable 2nd basemen and Left Fielders signed when they reached free agency? Judging things by winshares assumes that players get paid according to how winshares, which isnt even close to reality. My guess is that he's probably giving up a year or two, and probably $2-$4 million per year on his next contract by moving from 2B to LF.

Jeff Kent in his late 30's signed a two year $17 million contract with the Astros and then signed a two year $16 million contract with the Dodgers. Look at some top middle infielders contracts signed in the last three years; Orlando Cabrera and Jimmy Rollins each got $8 million per year for 4 and 5 year commitments respectively, Renteria signed for $40 million over 4 years, Furcal and Tejada signed for $13 million per for 3 and 6 years. His teammate Jose Vidro signed a below market deal that garantee's him 3 years at $7.5 million per year. Most of those players are somewhat different than Soriano (they can play defense) but he would be considered an elite middle infield free agent and this is what those players get paid. We havent seen an allstar 2B free agent in his prime in a while, but I think that only serves to help Soriano's case.

He'd probably be looking at ~$10 million per year and at least a 3-4 year commitment. I doubt seriously that he could command a similar offer as a left fielder.

2006-03-23 19:59:37
2.   das411
Mike, c'mon, Man-ram does not deserve to be on that list, where's the unforgettable Pete Incaviglia?!?
2006-03-24 05:45:17
3.   rbj
Wow, compared to Manny, Bonds is a bargain.
2006-03-24 06:34:26
4.   monkeyball
"My prediction is that he'll make the same amount of money either way."

You could have saved yourself a lot of math if you'd asked yourself the question "Exactly how much are teams willing to pay for Sori's 2B skills?"

2006-03-24 09:27:34
5.   Brent is a Dodger Fan
The math isn't that hard: averages, standard deviations and Soriano's relationship to those given the position he plays. Noting 1's concerns about the sample:

Soriano:
2B +1.25 SD, $6.04M
LF -0.07 SD, $5.45M

[Soriano is 1.25 standard deviations above average as a Second Baseman, translating into a $6.04M salary (if BWS and salary were so neatly correlated in reality.)

Soriano is 0.07 standard deviations below average as a Left Fielder, translating into a $5.45M salary.]

I agree that I'd like to see a more comparable sample, though. We shouldn't include data points that are from people who aren't under contracts signed as free agents, at the least, because this is a question about what a market will pay for a LF versus for a 2B.

Also, I maintain that one year at LF does not a Left fielder make. If a team has a hole at 2B, what's to stop them from signing Soriano to fill it?

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