Man Bites Dog—They Finally Get a Major Award Right
2005-11-15 08:40
by Mike Carminati
The baseball writers screwed up yesterday and somehow gave the AL MVP award to Alex Rodriguez, the league's most valuable player. Odd.
A-Rod now at least owns two of the four awards that he should have won in his career. Eh? It's progress.
I just wanted to run the numbers for the whole list because there were some players who received votes (Podsednik, Wickman) who wouldn't make the top five for the team's MVP vote and some (Peralta, Crawford) who were overlooked even though they are the types of players that usually garner a good bit of voter attention (i.e., a power-hitting shortstop and a good leadoff hitter). Also, prominent DH's (Hafner and Ortiz) complicated the voting to some extent. How do you weigh their batting against their non-fielding?
Since I was criticized for ranking, not weighting the statistics included, I will include both ranked and weighted stats (even though the comparison between averaged rankings and averaged averages is fundamentally unsound—averaged averages are an issue because they might include different denominators).
The stats I will use are Baseball Prospectus's VORP, Bill James' Batting and Total Win Shares, and Baseball Reference's adjusted OPS+. I know that using the batting stats puts the pitchers involved at a severe disadvantage, but frankly, pitchers have no business being considered in MVP voting, at least pitchers this side of Roger Clemens. I also threw in a few of the better players left off the writers' ballots.
So here goes…The data are broken down in order to fit the display. First, the actual vote totals (rankings are by the final ranking) and VORP:
Player, Club
MVP Points
Rk
Ballots
VORP
Rk
Wt
Alex Rodriguez, NYY
331
1
28
99.7
1
1.00
David Ortiz, BOS
307
2
28
85.8
2
0.86
Manny Ramirez, BOS
156
4
27
68.6
9
0.69
Travis Hafner, CLE
151
5
27
77.3
4
0.78
Mark Teixeira, TEX
106
7
26
73.1
5
0.73
Vladimir Guerrero, LAA
196
3
28
72.4
6
0.73
Brian Roberts, BAL
5
18
3
69.5
8
0.70
Michael Young, TEX
20
11
7
60.5
3
0.61
Gary Sheffield, NYY
84
8
19
56.5
14
0.57
Jason Giambi, NYY
5
18
2
58.4
12
0.59
Richie Sexson, SEA
7
15
3
56.3
16
0.56
Miguel Tejada, BAL
7
15
5
70.0
7
0.70
Paul Konerko, CWS
128
6
26
56.4
15
0.57
Hideki Matsui, NYY
8
14
3
53.0
17
0.53
Derek Jeter, NYY
23
10
6
66.3
10
0.66
Jhonny Peralta, CLE
0
0
58.2
13
0.58
Grady Sizemore, CLE
3
23
2
53.0
17
0.53
Johnny Damon, BOS
12
13
5
49.2
21
0.49
Victor Martinez, CLE
5
18
1
60.3
11
0.60
Carl Crawford, TB
0
0
47.2
23
0.47
Ichiro Suzuki, SEA
0
0
45.0
25
0.45
Julio Lugo, TB
0
0
49.9
20
0.50
Bartolo Colon, LAA
3
23
2
51.1
19
0.51
Jason Varitek, BOS
4
21
1
45.6
24
0.46
Mark Ellis, OAK
0
0
41.9
27
0.42
Mike Sweeney, KC
0
0
42.3
26
0.42
Melvin Mora, BAL
0
0
41.1
29
0.41
Chone Figgins, LAA
6
17
5
39.1
34
0.39
Jorge Cantu, TB
1
27
1
39.3
31
0.39
Eric Chavez, OAK
4
21
3
35.5
37
0.36
Joe Mauer, MIN
0
0
40.9
30
0.41
Jose Contreras, CWS
1
27
1
41.5
28
0.42
Alfonso Soriano, TEX
0
0
47.8
22
0.48
Mariano Rivera, NYY
59
9
15
32.3
39
0.32
Scott Podsednik, CWS
15
12
4
13.6
41
0.14
Huston Street, OAK
3
23
1
33.3
38
0.33
Bob Wickman, CLE
2
26
1
22.8
40
0.23
Now, here are the Win Shares and OPS+ data:
Player, Club
Batting WS
Rk
Wt
Total WS
Rk
Wt
OPS+
Rk
Wt
Alex Rodriguez, NYY
33.3
1
1.00
37
1
1.00
167
2
0.98
David Ortiz, BOS
31.4
2
0.94
31
5
0.84
161
3
0.95
Manny Ramirez, BOS
30.9
3
0.93
34
2
0.92
156
4
0.92
Travis Hafner, CLE
26.8
6
0.80
27
7
0.73
170
1
1.00
Mark Teixeira, TEX
29.1
5
0.87
32
4
0.86
146
7
0.86
Vladimir Guerrero, LAA
24.5
8
0.74
27
7
0.73
156
4
0.92
Brian Roberts, BAL
23.5
10
0.71
28
6
0.76
145
8
0.85
Michael Young, TEX
23.0
11
0.69
27
7
0.73
133
12
0.78
Gary Sheffield, NYY
30.5
4
0.92
33
3
0.89
132
14
0.78
Jason Giambi, NYY
24.5
8
0.74
25
13
0.68
156
4
0.92
Richie Sexson, SEA
25.4
7
0.76
27
7
0.73
140
9
0.82
Miguel Tejada, BAL
20.0
15
0.60
26
11
0.70
133
12
0.78
Paul Konerko, CWS
21.5
13
0.65
24
18
0.65
136
11
0.80
Hideki Matsui, NYY
22.6
12
0.68
25
13
0.68
125
17
0.74
Derek Jeter, NYY
19.6
17
0.59
26
11
0.70
121
22
0.71
Jhonny Peralta, CLE
17.0
25
0.51
25
13
0.68
139
10
0.82
Grady Sizemore, CLE
18.2
21
0.55
25
13
0.68
125
17
0.74
Johnny Damon, BOS
19.9
16
0.60
25
13
0.68
113
23
0.66
Victor Martinez, CLE
16.6
26
0.50
22
25
0.59
132
14
0.78
Carl Crawford, TB
21.0
14
0.63
23
23
0.62
111
25
0.65
Ichiro Suzuki, SEA
19.6
17
0.59
24
18
0.65
109
27
0.64
Julio Lugo, TB
18.6
20
0.56
24
18
0.65
105
30
0.62
Bartolo Colon, LAA
0.0
-
19
33
0.51
0
-
Jason Varitek, BOS
14.6
32
0.44
19
33
0.51
125
17
0.74
Mark Ellis, OAK
14.2
36
0.43
21
27
0.57
125
17
0.74
Mike Sweeney, KC
17.1
23
0.51
17
46
0.46
127
16
0.75
Melvin Mora, BAL
15.7
30
0.47
19
33
0.51
122
21
0.72
Chone Figgins, LAA
16.2
28
0.49
22
25
0.59
103
31
0.61
Jorge Cantu, TB
17.1
23
0.51
18
40
0.49
112
24
0.66
Eric Chavez, OAK
16.0
29
0.48
21
27
0.57
106
29
0.62
Joe Mauer, MIN
13.7
42
0.41
23
23
0.62
108
28
0.64
Jose Contreras, CWS
0.0
-
18
40
0.49
0
-
Alfonso Soriano, TEX
14.0
38
0.42
16
55
0.43
110
26
0.65
Mariano Rivera, NYY
0.0
-
17
46
0.46
0
-
Scott Podsednik, CWS
8.2
83
0.25
12
103
0.32
86
32
0.51
Huston Street, OAK
0.0
-
13
92
0.35
0
-
Bob Wickman, CLE
0.0
-
8
169
0.22
0
-
Here are the final standings by average rank then weighted average:
Player, Club
Avg Rk
Avg Wt
Alex Rodriguez, NYY
1.3
1.00
David Ortiz, BOS
3.0
0.90
Manny Ramirez, BOS
4.5
0.86
Travis Hafner, CLE
4.5
0.83
Mark Teixeira, TEX
5.3
0.83
Vladimir Guerrero, LAA
6.3
0.78
Brian Roberts, BAL
8.0
0.75
Michael Young, TEX
8.3
0.70
Gary Sheffield, NYY
8.8
0.79
Jason Giambi, NYY
9.3
0.73
Richie Sexson, SEA
9.8
0.72
Miguel Tejada, BAL
11.3
0.70
Paul Konerko, CWS
14.3
0.66
Hideki Matsui, NYY
14.8
0.66
Derek Jeter, NYY
15.0
0.67
Jhonny Peralta, CLE
15.3
0.65
Grady Sizemore, CLE
17.0
0.62
Johnny Damon, BOS
18.3
0.61
Victor Martinez, CLE
19.0
0.62
Carl Crawford, TB
21.3
0.59
Ichiro Suzuki, SEA
21.8
0.58
Julio Lugo, TB
22.0
0.58
Bartolo Colon, LAA
26.0
0.26
Jason Varitek, BOS
26.5
0.54
Mark Ellis, OAK
26.8
0.54
Mike Sweeney, KC
27.8
0.54
Melvin Mora, BAL
28.3
0.53
Chone Figgins, LAA
29.5
0.52
Jorge Cantu, TB
29.5
0.51
Eric Chavez, OAK
30.5
0.51
Joe Mauer, MIN
30.8
0.52
Jose Contreras, CWS
34.0
0.23
Alfonso Soriano, TEX
35.3
0.49
Mariano Rivera, NYY
42.5
0.20
Scott Podsednik, CWS
64.8
0.30
Huston Street, OAK
65.0
0.17
Bob Wickman, CLE
104.5
0.11
As for which stats correlate best to the final vote, VORP was best (0.712 coefficient for value and weighted value, and 0.556 for rank). Total Win Share edged out Batting Win Shares, and OPS+ came in last).
Podsednik benefited from the good press early in the season, even though no real case could be made for him based on his stats. He was the only player on the list with a below average adjusted OPS (a woeful 86). Meanwhile, Perralta, for whom one could make a decent case for being the best player on a playoff contender, suffered from the "who's that?" syndrome. Why should writers actually get to know the players before they vote?
However, the worst player by far on the list was Bob Wickman, who received one ninth-place vote (2 points), because he was basically the Indians closer and had a decent year (2.47 ERA, 45 saves). He earned 8 Win Shares in total for his efforts, which made me wonder what was the lowest total for a vote-getter in the MVP voting.
So I looked it up, and Wickman doesn't even approach the worst vote-getter. That honor would fall to Earl Torgeson, a good but not great first baseman who played just 25 games for the fourth-place Braves in 1949 and earned a measly three Win Shares. Perhaps the worst to garner a good chunk of votes was Bobby Reeves, a Senators shortstop with a 60 OPS+ in 1927, who finished twelfth in the AL voting, right behind fellow middle infielders Tony Lazzeri (who had one first-place vote but finished 11th) and Joe Sewell.
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