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The Race Where That Immortal Garland Is To Be Run For
2005-08-08 10:12
by Mike Carminati
—John Milton

A wreathed garland of deserved praise,
Of praise deserved, unto Thee I give


—George Herbert

Jon Garland won his 16th game yesterday beating the M's, 3-1, and allowing just one run, five hits, and two walks in 7.1 innings. He is just 4-4 in his last eight starts, dating back to June 26, but has lowered his ERA from 3.40 to 3.29 with (with a 3.04 ERA over the period).

Barring any rests the Sox give him down what appears to be a meaningless stretch run, Garland should get ten more starts, which means he could potentially win 26 for the year. Garland appears to be the front runner for the AL Cy Young award, which might help spur the Sox to get all his starts in, especially if he can top 25 wins, however, unlikely.

No pitcher has won 25 since Bob Welch fifteen years ago. He's actually the only pitcher do win that many games in the last 25 years (Steve Stone won 25 in 1980). Given that Garland has gotten a decision in all but one of his starts this year, it is not inconceivable (to quote Vizzini in "The Princess Bride") that he would be able to get a decision in his last ten, and what they hey, why can't they all be wins?

Should he reach 26 wins, he would be just the third pitcher since 1969 to do so. Only 21 have done it in the last 75 years, most of which were played before five-man rotations became de rigueur:

PitcherYrWLPCTG ERA
Bob Welch1990276.81835 2.95
Steve Carlton19722710.73041 1.97
Denny McLain1968316.83841 1.96
Juan Marichal1968269.74338 2.43
Sandy Koufax1966279.75041 1.73
Sandy Koufax1965268.76543 2.04
Don Newcombe1956277.79438 3.06
Robin Roberts1952287.80039 2.59
Bob Feller19462615.63448 2.18
Hal Newhouser1946269.74337 1.94
Hal Newhouser1944299.76347 2.22
Dizzy Trout19442714.65949 2.12
Bob Feller19402711.71143 2.61
Bucky Walters19392711.71139 2.29
Carl Hubbell1936266.81342 2.31
Dizzy Dean19352812.70050 3.04
Lefty Gomez1934265.83938 2.33
Dizzy Dean1934307.81150 2.66
Alvin Crowder19322613.66750 3.33
Lefty Grove1931314.88641 2.06

Of course, Garland's 3.29 ERA, though much lower than his career ERA to start the season 4.68), is a bit hefty for a Cy Young candidate. Should he keep that ERA and still win 26, he would have one of the highest ERAs for anyone who won as many games since the "Modern" era began. Here are the only men since 1900 to win 26 with an ERA of 3.00 or above (by the way, it was common in the nineteenth century with its one- or two-man rotations):

PitcherYrWLPCTG ERA
George Uhle19232616.61954 3.77
Charley Root19272615.63448 3.76
Joe McGinnity19012620.56548 3.56
Urban Shocker19212712.69247 3.55
Jack Coombs19112812.70047 3.53
Alvin Crowder19322613.66750 3.33
Joe Bush1922267.78839 3.31
Eddie Rommel19222713.67551 3.28
Carl Mays19202611.70345 3.06
Don Newcombe1956277.79438 3.06
Carl Mays1921279.75049 3.05
Dizzy Dean19352812.70050 3.04

As for Cy Young winners, here are the only award winners with ERAs of 3.00 or above:

PitcherYrWLPCTG ERA lgID
La Marr Hoyt19832410.70636 3.66 AL
Rick Sutcliffe1984206.76935 3.64 NL
Roger Clemens2001203.87033 3.51 AL
Jack McDowell19932210.68834 3.37 AL
Pete Vuckovich1982186.75030 3.34 AL
Roy Halladay2003227.75936 3.25 AL
Steve Stone1980257.78137 3.23 AL
Pat Hentgen19962010.66735 3.22 AL
Whitey Ford1961254.86239 3.21 ML
Early Wynn19592210.68837 3.17 ML
Jim Lonborg1967229.71039 3.16 AL
Bob Gibson1970237.76734 3.12 NL
Steve Carlton19822311.67638 3.10 NL
Mike Flanagan1979239.71939 3.08 AL
Vern Law1960209.69035 3.08 MLB
Don Newcombe1956277.79438 3.06 MLB
Jim Perry19702412.66740 3.04 AL

As I said earlier, Garland has had a decision in all but one of his 22 starts this year (95.45%). Should he win his final ten to give him 26 wins, he would also have a decision in 96.88% of starts, a remarkably high amount (and also a good indication of why he probably won't be able to win 26) That would be the highest ratio of decision per game pitched for a 20 game winner since Gaylord Perry's 1972 campaign. Here are all the men over 95% in the last 95 years:

PitcherYrWLPCTG ERA Dec/G
Ron Guidry1983219.70031 3.42 96.77%
Dennis Leonard19782117.55340 3.33 95.00%
Joe Coleman19732315.60540 3.53 95.00%
Gaylord Perry19722416.60041 1.92 97.56%
Fergie Jenkins19702216.57940 3.39 95.00%
Camilo Pascual1963219.70031 2.46 96.77%
Ned Garver19512012.62533 3.73 96.97%
Ed Lopat1951219.70031 2.91 96.77%
Red Ruffing1939217.75028 2.93 100.00%
Bucky Walters19392711.71139 2.29 97.44%
Red Ruffing19362012.62533 3.85 96.97%
Wes Ferrell19352514.64141 3.52 95.12%
George Uhle19262711.71139 2.83 97.44%
Dazzy Vance1925229.71031 3.53 100.00%
Dazzy Vance1924286.82435 2.16 97.14%
Burleigh Grimes19232118.53839 3.58 100.00%
Eppa Rixey19222513.65840 3.53 95.00%
Sam Jones19212316.59040 3.22 97.50%
Slim Sallee1919217.75029 2.06 96.55%
Carl Mays19182113.61835 2.21 97.14%
Pete Alexander19173013.69845 1.83 95.56%
Walter Johnson19112513.65840 1.90 95.00%

Finally, Garland entered the season with just 46 wins against 51 defeats in his five seasons in Chicago. If Garland wins at least 25 games this year, he would have one of the lowest career win totals prior to winning 25 ever:
PitcherYrWLPCTG ERA Pre WPre LPre G
Russ Ford1910266.81336 1.65 001
Larry Cheney19122610.72242 2.85 103
Bill Donovan19012515.62545 2.77 31027
Bill James1914267.78846 1.90 61024
George McConnell19152510.71444 2.20 122961
Dick Rudolph19142610.72242 2.35 141437
Togie Pittinger19022716.62846 2.52 152552
Tom Seaton19132712.69252 2.60 161244
Ron Guidry1978253.89335 1.74 16848
Mel Parnell1949257.78139 2.77 171150
Charley Root19272615.63448 3.76 182169
Dave Ferriss1946256.80640 3.25 211035
Wes Ferrell19302513.65843 3.31 211246
Eddie Rommel19222713.67551 3.28 233079
Johnny Morrison19232513.65842 3.49 271868
Joe McGinnity1900288.77844 2.94 281648
Jesse Barnes1919259.73538 2.40 2837101
Howie Camnitz1909256.80641 1.62 312181
Tom Seaver1969257.78136 2.21 322571
Walter Johnson19102517.59545 1.36 324890
Rube Marquard19122611.70343 2.57 332588
Christy Mathewson19033013.69845 2.26 343780
Hal Newhouser1944299.76347 2.22 3452137
Jack Coombs1910319.77545 1.30 3535102
Dazzy Vance1924286.82435 2.16 363184
Juan Marichal1963258.75841 2.41 372377
Jeff Tesreau19142610.72242 2.37 392077
Dizzy Dean1934307.81150 2.66 393395
Jack Chesbro1902286.82435 2.17 423287
Jeff Pfeffer19162511.69441 1.92 422790
Mordecai Brown1906266.81336 1.04 423582
Claude Hendrix19142910.74449 1.69 4230103
Tom Seaton19142514.64144 3.03 432496
Jack Quinn19142614.65046 2.60 4437124

Comments
2005-08-08 14:00:38
1.   Shaun P
Mike, I'm curious . . . Given that Garland has just 72Ks in 153 IP (or as many as Scot Shields has in 67 1/3IP, or 1 less than B.J. Ryan has in 48 1/3 IP, but I digress), what's the lowest number of Ks for anyone who's ever won 26+ games? Are the lists as short as some of the tables above?
2005-08-08 17:46:51
2.   Mike Carminati
Shaun,

See the next post.

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