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When I Was 25, Part II
2007-02-27 18:33
by Mike Carminati

It seems that some felt my last post was rather unsabermetric, if I may be allowed to coin a new word. I overlooked inflation and relied too heavily on that most Joe Morganian of pitching stats, wins.

Sheez. I makes me hearken back to a saying inscribed in the bathroom stall of my freshman dorm back in good ol' Butchman/Speakman in the venerable Quadrangle. And I quote, "Always a critic. Never a cricket."

Anyway, I was just being a bit of a lazy sabermetrician, or Neyeresque, to coin another new word. I had just loaded Sean Lahman's 2006 data and had yet to load some ancillary data. That has since been corrected, and I can now address both issues.

First, instead of listing the 26-year-olds by wins, here they are by Pitching Win Shares. Zambrano is 16th:

NameYrWLERA Salary Avg SalaryAdj SalaryPitching WS
Dwight Gooden199111946 2.82 $ 2,466,667 $ 891,884 2.77 116
Fernando Valenzuela19879968 2.94 $ 1,850,000 $ 434,001 4.26 112
Bret Saberhagen19909261 3.23 $ 1,400,000 $ 511,801 2.74 109
Roger Clemens19897834 3.05 $ 2,300,000 $ 505,462 4.55 94
Mike Witt19877159 3.52 $ 1,133,333 $ 434,001 2.61 80
Pedro Martinez19986539 3.00 $ 7,575,000 $ 1,280,845 5.91 77
Mark Gubicza19896956 3.62 $ 1,375,000 $ 505,462 2.72 76
Kevin Appier19945938 2.95 $ 3,800,000 $ 1,049,589 3.62 74
Dan Petry19857851 3.52 $ 875,000 $ 476,142 1.84 74
Greg Maddux19927564 3.61 $ 4,200,000 $ 1,047,521 4.01 74
Ismael Valdez20006154 3.38 $ 5,737,500 $ 1,992,985 2.88 68
Richard Dotson19857055 3.71 $ 900,000 $ 476,142 1.89 66
Steve Avery19966552 3.75 $ 4,200,000 $ 1,026,924 4.09 64
Jim Abbott19945866 3.66 $ 2,775,000 $ 1,049,589 2.64 63
Alex Fernandez19966353 3.86 $ 4,500,000 $ 1,026,924 4.38 62

Carlos Zambrano

20076442 3.29 $ 12,400,000 $ 2,828,623 4.38 62
John Smoltz19935754 3.50 $ 2,700,000 $ 976,967 2.76 60
Mike Mussina19955221 3.20 $ 2,925,000 $ 964,979 3.03 59
Byung-Hyun Kim20053128 3.37 $ 6,575,000 $ 2,633,831 2.50 59
Andy Benes19945954 3.44 $ 3,005,000 $ 1,049,589 2.86 58
Britt Burns19855249 3.58 $ 727,500 $ 476,142 1.53 56
Storm Davis19885748 3.81 $ 550,000 $ 453,020 1.21 56

Now, here are the 26-year-old pitchers by adjusted salary, i.e., their salary adjusted for the season's average salary. For Zambrano, I used the 2006 average which might prove low once the opening day rosters are set. Note that Zambrano comes in third:

NameYrWLERA Salary Avg SalaryAdj SalaryPitching WS
Pedro Martinez19986539 3.00 $ 7,575,000 $ 1,280,845 5.91 77
Roger Clemens19897834 3.05 $ 2,300,000 $ 505,462 4.55 94
Carlos Zambrano20076442 3.29 $ 12,400,000 $ 2,828,623 4.38 62
Alex Fernandez19966353 3.86 $ 4,500,000 $ 1,026,924 4.38 62
Fernando Valenzuela19879968 2.94 $ 1,850,000 $ 434,001 4.26 112
Steve Avery19966552 3.75 $ 4,200,000 $ 1,026,924 4.09 64
Greg Maddux19927564 3.61 $ 4,200,000 $ 1,047,521 4.01 74
Kevin Appier19945938 2.95 $ 3,800,000 $ 1,049,589 3.62 74
Mike Mussina19955221 3.20 $ 2,925,000 $ 964,979 3.03 59
Andy Pettitte19985124 3.58 $ 3,800,000 $ 1,280,845 2.97 50
Ismael Valdez20006154 3.38 $ 5,737,500 $ 1,992,985 2.88 68
Andy Benes19945954 3.44 $ 3,005,000 $ 1,049,589 2.86 58
Tom Glavine19925352 3.81 $ 2,975,000 $ 1,047,521 2.84 48
Mike Hampton19994839 3.68 $ 4,125,000 $ 1,485,317 2.78 45
Dwight Gooden199111946 2.82 $ 2,466,667 $ 891,884 2.77 116
John Smoltz19935754 3.50 $ 2,700,000 $ 976,967 2.76 60
Wilson Alvarez19964333 3.81 $ 2,825,000 $ 1,026,924 2.75 42
Bret Saberhagen19909261 3.23 $ 1,400,000 $ 511,801 2.74 109
Mark Gubicza19896956 3.62 $ 1,375,000 $ 505,462 2.72 76
Jim Abbott19945866 3.66 $ 2,775,000 $ 1,049,589 2.64 63
Jose Rijo19915352 3.60 $ 2,333,333 $ 891,884 2.62 50
Mike Witt19877159 3.52 $ 1,133,333 $ 434,001 2.61 80
Ramon Martinez19946249 3.35 $ 2,687,500 $ 1,049,589 2.56 53
Ben McDonald19944140 3.82 $ 2,675,000 $ 1,049,589 2.55 42
Tom Gordon19945652 3.87 $ 2,635,000 $ 1,049,589 2.51 48

OK, so Zambrano is not the highest-paid but is among the highest. Given that the two ahead of him are future Hall-of-Famers, that still is quite a bit of pressure. And that's a slightly more sabermetric evaluation.

When I Was 25, It Was a Very Good Year (But Maybe 26 Was Better)
2007-02-25 21:05
by Mike Carminati

At the end of the 2003 season, optimism abounded at Wrigley. The Cubs had won a division title for the first time in 14 seasons. Their pitching staff was led by four starters who were all young and highly touted.

22-year-old Mark Prior was the centerpiece. He won 18 games, finished third in the ERA crown (2.43), and third in the NL Cy Young vote in his first full season as a major-leaguer. 26-year-old Kerry Wood, the staff's previous savior, had already logged five seasons in the majors and come back from Tommy John surgery. That season he went 14-11 with a 3.20 ERA. 28-year-old Matt Clement helped make ridiculously long goatees popular in Chicago by going 14-12 with a 4.11 ERA.

The number four pitcher was a 22-year-old who surprisingly turned around a 5-10 career record in parts of two previous seasons to turn in a 13-11 record with a 3.11 ERA. Carlos Zambrano was a nice throw-in for a pitching-rich franchise.

The season ended in crushing disappointment. These are the Cubs, after all. But even so they had they great young staff, right?

Prior, Wood, and Clement racked up only one complete season among them since 2003, and that was by Clement prior to signing what once seemed a ridiculous contract with the Red Sox after 2004. Wood and Prior have both succumbed to injuries. Prior has won 18 games in total in just 57 starts in the last three seasons. Wood has won just 12 and started 47 over that period. Both pitchers won just one game each last season in 13 total starts.

But the good news is that Zambrano became one of the premier pitchers in the league finishing in the top five in the Cy Young vote twice, winning between 14 and 16 games each of the last three years while never pitching fewer than 209.2 innings and while watching his strikeout totals rise from 188 in 2004 to 210 last year (8.07 to 8.83 K/9IP).

Zambrano, now 25 and the staff ace, just signed a $12.4 M one-year deal with the Cubs that flew under the radar after this offseason of contract excess. It was remarkable both for the amount of money and for the number—or lack thereof—of years.

Zambrano has been very good and has been constantly improving. He's the kind of pitcher whose career a baseball fan can't wait to see unfold. But $12.4 M for a pitcher who has never won more than 16 games in a season and who has never led his league in anything besides a six-way tie for wins (16) in 2005, walks in 2006 (115), and hit batsmen in 2004 (20). It's good to be a Cub in 2007 at least if you are on the receiving end of a new contract.

Zambrano, who will be 26 for the bulk of the season, will become the third highest-paid 26-year-old in baseball history behind just Alex Rodriguez ($22M in 2002) and Albert Pujols ($14M last year). He will make nearly five million dollars more this year than the next highest paid 26-year-old pitcher ever (Pedro Martinez at $7,575,000 in 1998).

Has Zambrano been that good?

Here's a rundown of the pitchers with the most wins by the age of 26 since 1985:

NameYrWLERA Salary
Dwight Gooden199111946 2.82 $ 2,466,667
Fernando Valenzuela19879968 2.94 $ 1,850,000
Bret Saberhagen19909261 3.23 $ 1,400,000
Dan Petry19857851 3.52 $ 875,000
Roger Clemens19897834 3.05 $ 2,300,000
Greg Maddux19927564 3.61 $ 4,200,000
Mike Witt19877159 3.52 $ 1,133,333
Richard Dotson19857055 3.71 $ 900,000
Mark Gubicza19896956 3.62 $ 1,375,000
Mark Buehrle20056945 3.76 $ 6,000,000
Steve Avery19966552 3.75 $ 4,200,000
Pedro Martinez19986539 3.00 $ 7,575,000
Mark Mulder20046434 3.77 $ 4,450,000

Carlos Zambrano

20076442 3.29 $12,400,000
Jon Garland20066461 4.42 $ 7,000,000
Alex Fernandez19966353 3.86 $ 4,500,000
Ramon Martinez19946249 3.35 $ 2,687,500
Barry Zito20046129 3.12 $ 3,000,000
Ismael Valdez20006154 3.38 $ 5,737,500

Zambrano is arguably a very similar pitcher to Mark Buehrle at this stage of his career (slightly better but comparable), but he's doubling Buehrle's salary at the same age just two years later.

To put it in perspective, here are the highest paid 26-year-old pitchers all time:

NameYrWLERA Salary
Carlos Zambrano20076442 3.29 $12,400,000
Pedro Martinez19986539 3.00 $ 7,575,000
Jon Garland20066461 4.42 $ 7,000,000
Byung-Hyun Kim20053128 3.37 $ 6,575,000
Kerry Wood20034530 3.75 $ 6,190,000
Mark Buehrle20056945 3.76 $ 6,000,000
Javier Vazquez20035156 4.37 $ 6,000,000
Ben Sheets20054553 3.92 $ 6,000,000
Ismael Valdez20006154 3.38 $ 5,737,500
Johan Santana20054318 3.47 $ 4,750,000
Joel Pineiro20054331 3.66 $ 4,700,000
Alex Fernandez19966353 3.86 $ 4,500,000

And the highest-paid 26-year-olds overall:

NameYr Salary
Alex Rodriguez2002 $22,000,000
Albert Pujols2006 $14,000,000
Carlos Zambrano2007 $12,400,000
Andruw Jones2003 $12,000,000
Adrian Beltre2005 $11,400,000
Derek Jeter2000 $10,000,000
Vladimir Guerrero2002 $ 8,000,000
Ken Griffey1996 $ 7,650,000
Pedro Martinez1998 $ 7,575,000
Adam Dunn2006 $ 7,500,000
Juan Gonzalez1996 $ 7,425,000
Troy Glaus2003 $ 7,250,000
Jon Garland2006 $ 7,000,000

I guess signing Zambrano for that much money is a better gamble than it would be on John Garland. I just can't get over $12.4 M. Consider that the most paid to a 27-year-old pitcher was $11M to Pedro Martinez in 1999 and only six have made over $8M. If Zambrano has a decent year in 2007, how much will he make next year?

I'll let you consider that while I leave you with the highest-paid pitchers at age 27:

NameYrWLERASalary
Pedro Martinez19998446 2.98 $11,100,000
Ben Sheets20065562 3.83 $ 9,625,000
Javier Vazquez20046468 4.16 $ 9,000,000
Johan Santana20065925 3.31 $ 8,750,000
Kerry Wood20045941 3.62 $ 8,000,000
Mark Buehrle20068553 3.63 $ 8,000,000
Alex Fernandez19977963 3.78 $ 7,000,000
Joel Pineiro20065042 4.11 $ 6,800,000
Jeff Weaver20045163 4.59 $ 6,250,000
Mark Mulder20058142 3.92 $ 6,050,000
Eric Milton20035651 4.80 $ 6,000,000
Roy Halladay20045931 3.84 $ 6,000,000
This is my site with my opinions, but I hope that, like Irish Spring, you like it, too.
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