Kevin Mench ended his quest for the all-time consecutive game home run record last night, falling just one short. He did become one of six men all-time to homer in seven consecutive games, which after all aint bad.

Here are all streaks of six or more games:

Player	Consecutive Games with HRs	Total HRs	Team	Dates
Dale Long	8	8	Pittsburgh	5/19 - 5/28/1956
Don Mattingly	8	10	NY Yankees	7/8 - 7/18/1987
Ken Griffey, Jr.	8	8	Seattle	7/20 - 7/28/1993
Jim Thome	7	7	Cleveland	6/25 - 7/3/2002
Barry Bonds	7	8	San Francisco	4/12 - 4/20/2004
Kevin Mench	7	7	Texas	4/21 - 4/28/2006
Ken Williams	6	6	StL Browns	7/28 - 8/2/1922
George Kelly	6	7	NY Giants	7/11 - 7/16/1924
Lou Gehrig	6	6	NY Yankees	8/28 - 9/1/1931
Walker Cooper	6	7	NY Giants	6/22 - 6/28/1947
Willie Mays	6	7	NY Giants	9/14 - 9/20/1955
Roy Sievers	6	6	Washington	7/29 - 8/3/1957
Roger Maris	6	7	NY Yankees	8/11 - 8/16/1961
Frank Howard	6	10	Washington	5/12 - 5/18/1968
Reggie Jackson	6	6	Baltimore	7/18 - 7/23/1976
Graig Nettles	6	7	San Diego	8/11 - 8/22/1984
Barry Bonds	6	6	San Francisco	4/12 - 4/18/2001
Barry Bonds	6	9	San Francisco	5/17 - 5/22/2001

I thought it might be interesting to look at the players with the best odds of homering in six or eight consecutive games using logic similar to what I used in the Rollins' hit streak earlier this month. Here were the best player years:

Name	Yr	G	HR	TPA	BA	OBP	SLUG	OPS	8-G Streak	6-G Streak
Barry Bonds	2001	153	73	664	.328	.515	.863	1.379	9.21%	58.90%
Mark McGwire	1998	155	70	681	.299	.470	.752	1.222	6.43%	45.13%
Mark McGwire	1999	153	65	661	.278	.424	.697	1.120	4.22%	32.83%
Sammy Sosa	1998	159	66	722	.308	.377	.647	1.024	3.68%	29.91%
Sammy Sosa	2001	160	64	711	.328	.437	.737	1.174	2.95%	25.36%
Sammy Sosa	1999	162	63	712	.288	.367	.635	1.002	2.44%	22.06%
Mark McGwire	1996	130	52	548	.312	.467	.730	1.198	2.40%	20.64%
Roger Maris	1961	161	61	698	.269	.372	.620	.993	2.03%	19.23%
Mark McGwire	1997	156	58	657	.274	.393	.646	1.039	1.76%	17.12%
Matt Williams	1994	112	43	483	.267	.319	.607	.926	1.53%	14.16%
Ken Griffey	1997	157	56	704	.304	.382	.646	1.028	1.31%	13.73%
Luis Gonzalez	2001	162	57	728	.325	.429	.688	1.117	1.23%	13.24%
Mark McGwire	1995	104	39	422	.274	.441	.685	1.125	1.23%	11.84%
Alex Rodriguez	2002	162	57	725	.300	.392	.623	1.015	1.23%	13.18%
Mickey Mantle	1961	153	54	646	.317	.448	.687	1.135	1.20%	12.74%
Jim Thome	2002	147	52	613	.304	.445	.677	1.122	1.18%	12.48%
Ken Griffey	1998	161	56	720	.284	.365	.611	.977	1.12%	12.33%
Albert Belle	1995	143	50	629	.317	.401	.690	1.091	1.03%	11.23%
Mickey Mantle	1956	150	52	652	.353	.464	.705	1.169	1.03%	11.30%
Ken Griffey	1996	140	49	638	.303	.392	.628	1.020	1.01%	10.99%
Juan Gonzalez	1996	134	47	592	.314	.368	.643	1.011	0.99%	10.67%
Ken Griffey	1994	111	40	493	.323	.402	.674	1.076	0.98%	10.12%
Barry Bonds	2003	130	45	550	.341	.529	.749	1.278	0.92%	10.02%
Barry Bonds	2000	143	49	607	.306	.440	.688	1.127	0.91%	10.24%

Bonds in 2001 had the best odds of getting a six-game streak, and you'll notice that he did it twice. Now here are the odds for the players who did in fact hit a home run in six or more straight games:

Name	Yr	HR	TPA	BA	OBP	SLUG	OPS	8-G Streak	6-G Streak
Barry Bonds	2001	73	664	.328	.515	.863	1.379	8.76%	56.75%
Roger Maris	1961	61	698	.269	.372	.620	.993	2.02%	19.14%
Jim Thome	2002	52	613	.304	.445	.677	1.122	1.15%	12.27%
Willie Mays	1955	51	670	.319	.400	.659	1.059	0.82%	9.56%
Barry Bonds	2004	45	617	.362	.609	.812	1.422	0.40%	5.59%
Lou Gehrig	1931	46	738	.341	.446	.662	1.108	0.35%	5.07%
Ken Griffey	1993	45	691	.309	.408	.617	1.025	0.29%	4.41%
Frank Howard	1968	44	663	.274	.338	.552	.890	0.23%	3.75%
Roy Sievers	1957	42	657	.301	.388	.579	.967	0.21%	3.44%
Ken Williams	1922	39	678	.332	.413	.627	1.040	0.12%	2.24%
Walker Cooper	1947	35	546	.305	.339	.586	.926	0.10%	1.88%
Don Mattingly	1987	30	629	.327	.378	.559	.937	0.03%	0.77%
Reggie Jackson	1976	27	558	.277	.351	.502	.853	0.02%	0.54%
Dale Long	1956	27	582	.263	.326	.485	.812	0.01%	0.35%
Graig Nettles	1984	20	465	.228	.329	.413	.742	0.00%	0.15%
George Kelly	1924	21	627	.324	.371	.531	.902	0.00%	0.10%
Kevin Mench	2006	7	76	.275	.335	.493	.828	0.00%	0.05%

You may also notice how precipitously the odds fall from six- to eight-game streaks. Dale Long must be the luckiest guy in the world.

News Bulletin—The Phils Need Pitching!

I love John Kruk's stuff. I used to think he was just a hack baseball writer, but I now have to admit I was wrong.

He's now become a caricature of a hack writer.

Kruk, the man who championed Chone Figgins for the 2004 AL MVP about the same time he discovered that David Eckstein was the "scrappiest" player in the majors, two years after his team won the World Series, now sets his sights on the Phils' woes. Let's let the down-to-earth smarmy hubris fly.

The first problem with the Phils was their lineup. Wow, what a revelation! When a team is batting Ryan Howard sixth and seventh and especially when they have three instant outs (Bell, Lieberthal, and the pitcher), there's a problem. Utley was ping-ponging between the cleanup and #5 spot. Well, sure, he is a prototypical cleanup hitter.

The basic problem is that manager Charlie "I Need A" Manuel did not understand why his lineup worked last year nor did he know how to deal with losing one starter (Kenny Lofton) from the top of the order last year. The Phils essentially had two leadoff hitters last year, Rollins and Lofton. They were both successful at getting on base and that was the key to the Phils' offensive success in 2005. The rest of the lineup at the end of last season was Utley at number three, then Abreu, Burrell, Howard, Bell, and Lieberthal.

For some reason, losing Lofton threw a monkey wrench in Manuel's approach to the lineup at the start of this season. Rowand replaced Lofton in center, so ol' Chowlie figured, hey, let's just let Rowand take Lofton's spot in the lineup. It is beyond me how a team can take a player from a different league who is coming off a down year offensive and owns just a .337 career OBP and put him in the number two hole, especially when they have better options.

What Manuel should have done to replace Lofton was just shift the numbers three through six hitters up one spot and put Rowand in the number six spot. It just took him the better part of a month to figure that out.

But I digress…I came to bury Kruk, not Caesar, er, Manuel.

Even Kruk can see that jumbling the lineup was needed and yes, he's correct that moving Utley to #2 was the most significant single change. But he misses the larger point. Sure, lineups are not as important as some would have you believe, but when a lineup is dysfunctional like the Phils was at the start of the season, it needs to be fixed. That was most important change to the lineup, to finally put players in positions in the order that made some semblance of sense.

Next Kruk opines:

But the Phillies need to start changing their philosophy, as well. Right now they play like an American League team in that they just wait for the home run and that's a mistake for this team. They have guys like Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Aaron Rowand who can run, and it's time to start using them to manufacture runs and to put pressure on opposing pitchers.

Let me get my waders on to delve into this pile of BS. Rowand and Utley are good baserunners, but the only time either of them cleared twenty steals in a season in their professional careers was when Rowand swiped 22 in Double-A in 2000. They are good bets at a dozen to eighteen steals a year, which is nice but is nothing to build an offense around.

Rollins and Abreu (whom Kruk neglected to mention) are legitimate stolen base threats. Abreu already has 4 steals (and projects to 32 on the season) so he has had no problems swiping his share of bases. Rollins has just three stolen bases this season (projecting to 24), which is off his usual pace, but the problem with him is that he's not getting on base. His on-base percentage is the lowest it's been in three years (.322) and the Phils are 19th in the majors in leadoff hitter OBP (.330 overall).

Compare the Phils ratios to their opponents overall. Kruk is correct that too much of their offense is based on home runs, but the problem is not stealing bases. It's getting on base via the single or double that's plaguing them:

NAME	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	TB	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Phillies	20	683	97	183	41	0	26	302	93	68	111	11	3	.268	.336	.442	.778
Oppponents	20	724	118	218	49	8	22	349	111	67	137	14	2	.301	.365	.482	.847

Kruk next comes out with this major revelation, "They also need to find a way to get some quality starting pitching". No, really? This is a team that has not had a real number one pitcher since Curt Schilling left town. I guess Kruk just got the bulletin—keep in mind that he was a commentator for the Phils prior to his current ESPN gig. This is the baseball equivalent of Bush telling us, as if he's the first to discover this, that "Hey! We're addicted to oil!" Well, almost, it lacks the hypocritical causal link, but you get the idea.

Beyond overstating the painfully obvious, Kruk then goes on to single out individual problems with the rotation that have nothing to do with the real problem and are factually incorrect. He avers, "[T]he Phillies [are] relying for the time being on young pitchers like Gavin Floyd and Ryan Madson, who both don't have the experience pitching beyond 150 innings that is necessary".

First, the problem with the rotation is that they just don't have the talent. They don't have a legitimate number one or two pitcher on the staff. They are relying on sub-par retreads like John Lieber and Corey Lidle in two of the top three spots.

As for Madson and Floyd, they may not reach 150 innings each, but it is more likely to be a result of their on-field performance than some innate inability to pitch beyond 150 innings. Both have ERAs in the 8.00's and are getting pulled so early they are projecting to under 150 innings for the year.

Before you play Krukie advocate and offer that they just don't have the arm strength to pitch deep into their starts and that's what Kruk meant when he said they won't pitch well past 150 innings, I have to point out that both commonly pitched at least 150 in their previous professional career. As a matter of fact, in Floyd's four professional seasons, he has missed 150 innings just once (by just 12 in 2003) and he has average 163 innings per season. Madson was a long reliever in each of the last two seasons with the Phils, but in both of his previous two (mostly) minor-league seasons he reached 150 innings (171 in 2002 and 167 in 2003).

I'm not as concerned about their ability to pitch beyond 150 innings. I'm concerned as to whether or not they are legitimate major-league starters, and whether they can show that this season.

The gist of Kruk's argument is that the Phils need to make some changes because, "[T]he NL East is there for the taking right now". Nothing could be farther from the truth. The Mets are 4.5 games ahead of the (currently) second-place Phils. That's the largest lead in the majors. Three last-place teams are closer to first than the Phils (in the AL East, AL West, and NL West). Keep in mind that they are just 2.5 games out of last.

The problem with the Phils since the glory days of Schmidt and Carlton have been short-term solutions. What they need to do is right their ship. They need to determine if they have any starting pitchers besides Brett Myers who have a legitimate shot of being in the rotation next year. They need to devise a strategy at third and behind the plate after the rapidly aging Lieberthal and Bell's contracts are up at the end of the season—and how Kruk can analyze the Phils' woes without mentioning these two albatrosses is beyond me.

What they don't need is reactionary changes driven out of some misdirected believe that they are a legitimate playoff contender. Charlie Manuel was a reactionary selection. He was brought in to appease the players after the Vicksburgian siege that was the Larry Bowa era. He was also made the heir apparent to the managerial throne after Mike Schmidt realized that he didn't enjoying paying his managerial dues by riding a bus in the minors for five months out of the year. Manuel was also a good buddy of Jim Thome, who you might recall is no longer in town.

Kruk finishes up his magnum opus by offering that the next dozen or so games will help the Phils decide whether to fire Manuel. He's right: these games will be critical if Manuel's to keep his job. But really, the Phils need to take a look at the job Manuel has done and determine if he's the man to lead him. I have my own opinion.

The biggest problem with the Phils, and Kruk is remiss in not mentioning this, is their mercurial front office style. It reminds me of the old story of how the Mets went from a Series winner to one of the worst teams in the game by trying to resolve who their center fielder was. They traded Lenny Dykstra to the Phils, made a series of trades as a result of that one and the rest was history.

The Phils are still reeling from the Scott Rolen fiasco from years ago. The Burrell contract, David Montgomery has said publicly, was a direct result of the failure to sign Rolen. The Rolen deal is woven deep into the fabric of this team.

What the Phils need to do is decide what they do well and what they don't do well. They need to take advantage of the things they do well, and improve the things they do poorly. Otherwise, we will get more of the floundering mediocrity that has plagued them basically since they surprising won the NL pennant in 1993.

Maybe I'm wrong though. Maybe that's the start of the Phils' problems. They put together a mismatched bunch of players and somehow won a pennant. They have been trying to get the quick fix to again capture lightening in a bottle ever since. What this team needs is an identity, but unfortunately, the only man in the organization who has enough baseball talent to help develop one (Pat Gillick) may be well past his prime.

In a game almost as improbable as the Tampa Bay forest green, softball uniforms, the Yankees lost, 4-2, in ten innings to the Devil Rays tonight. The D-Rays broke the game open in the top of the tenth with Mariano Rivera on the mound, and the Yankees left the bases loaded in the bottom of the tenth.

However, the oddest thing about the game was that the Yankees drew 14 walks. Fourteen! Every spot in the order walked. Jason Giambi walked four times. And just one of those fourteen was an intentional walk. Of the five Tampa Bay pitchers, four threw at least one walk, and starter Seth McClung walked seven in five innings. He has issued 22 walks in 22.1 innings this season. Tampa Bay threw 206 pitches on the night.

To put it in perspective, the AL record for walks in a game is 20 by the Red Sox (or rather issued by the Tigers) in a 14-13 twelfth-inning loss on September 17, 1920. It's 16 in the NL. The nine-inning AL record is 18 (Detroit vs. Phila., May 9, 1916 and Cleveland vs. Boston, May 20, 1948). The NL record is 17. So it was not a record, but it wasn't that far from being one.

And yet the oddest thing might be that none of those walkees came around to score. The only two Yankee runs were scored on a Damon single and Sheffield homer. The Yankees had six hits to go with the 14 walks. Given two doubleplays and two runs, New York left 16 men on base.

Tim McCarver, take note. Those walks don't always come around to haunt you.

Fourteen of the 48 men who came to the plate for the Yankees walked. The Yankees batted .188 and slugged .281 on the night but had an on-base percentage of .435. The Yankees drew 3.5 times the expected walk total based on last years major-league numbers.

Now, given that the odds of drawing a walk in any given plate appearance using last year's numbers was 8.16%. So what's the probability of drawing 14 walks in 48 plate appearances? It's 0.0016% or about one in 64,226. I can't imagine what the odds of drawing 14 walks and scoring two runs are at 1 AM, but they're somewhere in the neighborhood of David Bell returning as the starting third baseman for the Phils next year. And Leon is getting laaaaaarger.

Last night, I ran across an article on Yahoo saying that home runs are up this year (and not just in Jim Thome's stat line).

Then I moseyed to ESPN and was told that an AP-AOL Sports poll found that 53 percent of baseball fans feel that "Baseball has fallen short on keeping the sport drug-free." They also found that two-thirds of fans are down on Barry Bonds though more than half would still put him in the Hall of Fame.

To quote my dad, "What the hex!" What's going on here?

The fans are correct in being suspicious of baseball's intentions where it comes to a drug policy. Both the players union and the owners profited by the inflated offensive numbers of the past dozen or so years. Both were slow to address the issue, but they now have a policy that appears effective. I mean, at least there have been a handful of minor leaguers already suspended for almost a full season (100 games).

But some will question why home runs are up if the drug policy is working so well? Oddly, those are the same people rejoicing over Barry Bonds' painfully slow start this year. I have trouble with this sort of cognitive dissonance myself.

Then again, there's the next level of cynics who say that the drug testing is academic since major-league players have switched to untraceable types of enhancements like HGH (Human Growth Hormone) or prolonged sessions on Howard Stern's sybean [sp?]. Minor-leaguers get caught using steroids because they can't afford the good stuff.

Finally, your trek through the baseball cognoscenti caste system, you will reach nirvana. That is, you will realize that there are many, many other factors that have conspired to prolong the home run inflation.

Expansion and tinkering with the strike zone and the ball have all been factors. However, in my opinion, the largest factor is the high turnover in baseball stadiums, usually from the old standard tin can-type parks to today's revenue-generating bandboxes. The new stadium boom, you might notice, coincides almost perfectly with the current offensive boom.

OK, so it's just a theory, but maybe we can test it…

First, let's verify that there is an issue. The numbers look impressive in the Yahoo article, but what do they mean? Let's look at the numbers for Aprils in the last twenty years and see what they mean as compared to the season as a whole (current stats through last night's games, for all years stats are through April and may include March stats):

Yr	April HR	April AB	April HR/AB	HR	AB	HR/AB	Apr/Tot
2006	687	19520	3.52%
2005	663	23897	2.77%	5017	166335	3.02%	91.98%
2004	724	22987	3.15%	5451	167353	3.26%	96.70%
2003	840	27633	3.04%	5207	166737	3.12%	97.34%
2002	730	25981	2.81%	5059	165582	3.06%	91.96%
2001	860	25108	3.43%	5458	166234	3.28%	104.32%
2000	935	25082	3.73%	5693	167290	3.40%	109.54%
1999	736	22736	3.24%	5528	167136	3.31%	97.87%
1998	767	27026	2.84%	5064	167116	3.03%	93.66%
1997	655	23731	2.76%	4640	155438	2.99%	92.46%
1996	828	24870	3.33%	4962	156801	3.16%	105.21%
1995	132	4504	2.93%	4081	138571	2.95%	99.51%
1994	708	21957	3.22%	3306	110266	3.00%	107.55%
1993	486	20777	2.34%	4030	154995	2.60%	89.96%
1992	388	18704	2.07%	3038	142895	2.13%	97.57%
1991	359	16786	2.14%	3383	142968	2.37%	90.38%
1990	381	16597	2.30%	3317	142768	2.32%	98.81%
1989	429	20650	2.08%	3083	142821	2.16%	96.24%
1988	459	18831	2.44%	3180	142568	2.23%	109.28%
1987	546	18506	2.95%	4458	144095	3.09%	95.36%
Grand Total	11626	406363	2.86%	83955	2907969	2.89%	99.10%

Balls are flying out of the ballpark more quickly (i.e., in 3.52% of all at-bats) than in any other full season. However, April 2006 ranks behind 2000 and is just ahead of 2001. In those seasons, homers fell sharply after April.

However, on average April home run rates are slightly below the season average (i.e., at 99.10%). One would expect if this holds true that then homers will comprise 3.55% of all at-bats by season's end, the highest percentage ever.

Ok, so there seems to be a potential issue here, but could this season just be an aberration? Homers had been falling in previous seasons, right?

Well, yes, home runs were slightly down last season, but it wasn't 1968 or anything. Besides slight downturns happen, how does the current decade compare with the past? Let's see…

Yr	HR	AB	HR/AB	TPA	HR/TPA
1870s	353	160999	0.22%	163999	0.22%
1880s	3774	619606	0.61%	660857	0.57%
1890s	4754	662784	0.72%	739264	0.64%
1900s	3100	753813	0.41%	839578	0.37%
1910s	4531	877314	0.52%	993683	0.46%
1920s	9894	847929	1.17%	956575	1.03%
1930s	13442	861440	1.56%	961598	1.40%
1940s	12958	847961	1.53%	954246	1.36%
1950s	20860	843489	2.47%	952718	2.19%
1960s	26169	1080332	2.42%	1209457	2.16%
1970s	29543	1343462	2.20%	1510768	1.96%
1980s	32942	1385808	2.38%	1551695	2.12%
1990s	41349	1478954	2.80%	1667943	2.48%
2000s	31885	999531	3.19%	1126039	2.83%

So where's the change coming from? St. Louis has a new ballpark. Could that be skewing the data?

Here is a comparison over the last two seasons of ballpark factors using ESPN.com data (based on PF = ((homeRS + homeRA)/(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)/(roadG))). The table is split to fit in the column:

Team	2006 Park	Runs	HR	H	2B	3B	BB
Arizona	Chase Field	1.432	2.167	1.244	0.864	2.000	1.014
San Diego	PETCO Park	1.048	1.414	1.093	0.738	0.750	0.860
Houston	Minute Maid Park	1.151	1.746	1.013	0.782	0.357	1.107
Cleveland	Jacobs Field	1.069	1.284	1.009	1.122	1.444	1.152
Chicago	Wrigley Field	0.835	1.429	0.876	0.808	0.629	0.992
Pittsburgh	PNC Park	1.175	1.218	1.045	0.931	0.300	1.258
Atlanta	Turner Field	0.773	1.195	1.040	1.231	0.929	0.587
Detroit	Comerica Park	1.139	1.217	1.125	1.045	1.486	1.026
Baltimore	Camden Yards	1.241	1.204	1.174	1.918	0.808	0.769
Texas	Ameriquest Field	1.030	1.464	1.084	1.131	0.818	0.926
NY Mets	Shea Stadium	1.033	0.995	0.943	1.455	0.485	0.909
Seattle	Safeco Field	0.819	0.962	0.889	0.538	0.875	1.044
Kansas City	Kauffman Stadium	0.983	0.875	1.133	1.591	1.125	0.637
Oakland	McAfee Coliseum	1.190	1.000	1.013	1.233	0.444	1.067
NY Yankees	Yankee Stadium	1.228	1.116	1.018	0.820	0.458	1.281
Boston	Fenway Park	0.869	0.814	0.874	1.568	0.900	0.725
Cinicinnati	Great American Ball Park	1.531	1.186	1.327	1.461	0.407	1.176
San Francisco	AT&T Park	1.282	0.825	0.978	1.531	0.571	1.166
Washington	RFK Stadium	0.742	0.684	0.916	0.973	5.056	0.636
Florida	Dolphin Stadium	0.925	0.705	0.851	0.917	2.750	1.369
Tampa Bay	Tropicana Field	0.893	0.767	0.857	0.639	3.429	1.447
Milwuakee	Miller Park	0.733	0.886	0.781	0.750	2.455	1.171
St.Louis	Busch Stadium (III)	1.075	0.941	1.013	0.876	1.350	0.946
Minnesota	Metrodome	1.180	0.731	1.067	1.200	2.000	1.300
LA of Anaheim	Angel Stadium	0.732	0.655	0.890	0.886	2.476	0.929
Chi White Sox	U.S. Cellular Field	0.911	1.064	0.915	0.636	0.146	1.182
Toronto	Rogers Centre	0.943	0.935	1.067	0.795	1.636	0.786
Colorado	Coors Field	0.871	0.778	1.014	0.755	0.833	1.264
Philadelphia	Citizens Bank Park	0.882	0.684	0.862	1.261	0.300	1.258
LA Dodgers	Dodger Stadium	0.757	0.373	0.838	1.062	0.333	1.123

Now last year's data with the difference between the two:

Team	2005 Park	Runs	HR	H	2B	3B	BB	HR Diff	R Diff
Arizona	Chase Field	1.078	1.046	1.045	1.069	1.659	1.041	1.121	0.354
San Diego	PETCO Park	0.803	0.750	0.903	0.832	1.331	0.945	0.664	0.245
Houston	Minute Maid Park	0.949	1.195	0.990	0.804	0.926	0.971	0.551	0.202
Cleveland	Jacobs Field	0.880	0.872	0.923	1.043	0.338	1.004	0.412	0.189
Chicago	Wrigley Field	1.015	1.052	1.009	1.058	1.086	0.954	0.377	-0.180
Pittsburgh	PNC Park	1.034	0.868	1.058	1.125	1.338	1.018	0.350	0.141
Atlanta	Turner Field	1.095	0.879	1.061	1.120	1.399	1.014	0.316	-0.322
Detroit	Comerica Park	0.959	0.944	1.038	0.887	1.737	1.041	0.273	0.180
Baltimore	Camden Yards	0.876	0.961	0.943	0.824	0.681	1.214	0.243	0.365
Texas	Ameriquest Field	1.076	1.263	1.036	1.032	1.812	0.975	0.201	-0.046
NY Mets	Shea Stadium	0.963	0.871	1.005	0.952	0.686	1.013	0.124	0.070
Seattle	Safeco Field	0.970	0.844	1.020	0.962	0.608	1.049	0.118	-0.151
Kansas City	Kauffman Stadium	0.972	0.761	1.022	1.157	0.912	0.988	0.114	0.011
Oakland	McAfee Coliseum	1.064	0.890	1.015	1.127	0.782	0.980	0.110	0.126
NY Yankees	Yankee Stadium	1.051	1.106	1.083	0.882	1.122	0.891	0.010	0.177
Boston	Fenway Park	1.027	0.886	0.964	1.324	0.890	1.076	-0.072	-0.158
Cinicinnati	Great American Ball Park	1.128	1.263	1.070	1.187	0.530	0.958	-0.077	0.403
San Francisco	AT&T Park	0.970	0.915	0.963	0.908	1.044	0.974	-0.090	0.312
Washington	RFK Stadium	0.860	0.775	0.851	0.888	1.051	0.953	-0.091	-0.118
Florida	Dolphin Stadium	0.883	0.803	0.925	0.859	1.095	1.114	-0.098	0.042
Tampa Bay	Tropicana Field	0.986	0.876	1.001	0.904	1.266	0.991	-0.109	-0.093
Milwuakee	Miller Park	0.992	1.085	0.895	0.877	0.948	1.032	-0.199	-0.259
St.Louis	Busch Stadium (II)	1.028	1.148	1.015	1.062	0.628	0.992	-0.207	0.047
Minnesota	Metrodome	1.019	0.947	0.972	0.967	0.828	0.897	-0.216	0.161
LA of Anaheim	Angel Stadium	0.921	0.901	0.951	0.984	0.988	0.983	-0.246	-0.189
Chi White Sox	U.S. Cellular Field	1.044	1.375	0.972	0.923	0.864	1.086	-0.311	-0.133
Toronto	Rogers Centre	1.039	1.255	1.045	1.071	1.085	0.882	-0.320	-0.096
Colorado	Coors Field	1.285	1.119	1.254	1.135	1.481	1.035	-0.341	-0.414
Philadelphia	Citizens Bank Park	1.161	1.289	1.117	1.127	1.406	0.931	-0.605	-0.279
LA Dodgers	Dodger Stadium	0.901	1.049	0.904	0.977	0.416	1.042	-0.676	-0.144

What happened to Coors? And moving the left field back two feet in Philly really mattered? Hmm… And what happened to PETCO and the BOB, former pitcher's parks?

Could it be this is what happens when you use a small sample of data, like what we have so far? Sure, but I'm too impatient to wait for the season's end.

Do stadiums really change that much from year to year? Well, for historic ballpark data we are left with Baseball-Reference.com/Sean lahman data, which unfortunately uses a different format from ESPN. However it is useful for looking at annual changes to data.

Here are the greatest increasex in ballpark factor (BPF) from a previous season. You'll notice new ballparks are a factor:

Team	Yr	Park	BPF	Prev Yr	Park	BPF	Diff
Cincinnati Reds	1902	Palace of the Fans	110	1901	League Park II in Cincinnati	93	17
Montreal Expos	2003	Stade Olympique/Hiram Bithorn Stadium	118	2002	Stade Olympique	101	17
Cincinnati Reds	2005	Great American Ball Park	106	2004	Great American Ball Park	92	14
New York Yankees	2000	Yankee Stadium II	104	1999	Yankee Stadium II	91	13
Houston Astros	2000	Enron Field	107	1999	Astrodome	94	13
Texas Rangers	2002	The Ballpark at Arlington	112	2001	The Ballpark at Arlington	100	12
Colorado Rockies	1995	Coors Field	128	1994	Mile High Stadium	116	12
Troy Trojans	1880	Haymakers' Grounds	105	1879	Putnam Grounds	93	12
Chicago Cubs	1916	Wrigley Field	111	1915	West Side Park II	100	11
Baltimore Orioles	1883	Oriole Park	103	1882	Newington Park	92	11
Milwaukee Brewers	1994	County Stadium	105	1993	County Stadium	95	10
Colorado Rockies	1999	Coors Field	129	1998	Coors Field	119	10
Pittsburgh Pirates	1891	Exposition Park	98	1890	Recreation Park	88	10
Baltimore Orioles	2004	Oriole Park at Camden Yards	104	2003	Oriole Park at Camden Yards	95	9
Cincinnati Reds	2002	Cinergy Field	108	2001	Cinergy Field	99	9

Now, here are the greatest decreases:

Team	Yr	Park	BPF	Prev Yr	Park	BPF	Diff
Montreal Expos	2004	Stade Olympique/Hiram Bithorn Stadium	95	2003	Stade Olympique/Hiram Bithorn Stadium	118	-23
St. Louis Browns	1892	Sportsman's Park I	95	1891	Sportsman's Park I	115	-20
Hartford Dark Blues	1877	Union Grounds (Brooklyn)	89	1876	Hartford Ball Club Grounds	108	-19
Kansas City Royals	2004	Royals Stadium	95	2003	Royals Stadium	113	-18
Newark Pepper	1915	N/A	94	1914	N/A	111	-17
Chicago Cubs	2000	Wrigley Field	90	1999	Wrigley Field	107	-17
Los Angeles Dodgers	1962	Dodger Stadium	94	1961	Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum	109	-15
Los Angeles Angels	1962	Dodger Stadium	97	1961	Wrigley Field (LA)	111	-14
Seattle Mariners	2000	Safeco Field	91	1999	Kingdome / Safeco Field	103	-12
Oakland Athletics	2003	Oakland Coliseum	93	2002	Oakland Coliseum	104	-11
Philadelphia Phillies	1938	Baker Bowl/Shibe Park	97	1937	Baker Bowl	108	-11
Brooklyn Atlantics	1874	Union Grounds	88	1873	Union Grounds	99	-11
Troy Trojans	1882	Troy Ball Clubs Grounds	95	1881	Haymakers' Grounds	105	-10
St. Louis Maroons	1885	Sportsman's Park I	94	1884	N/A	104	-10
Baltimore Orioles	2005	Oriole Park at Camden Yards	94	2004	Oriole Park at Camden Yards	104	-10
Anaheim Angels	2002	Edison International Field	97	2001	Edison International Field	107	-10

Let's just look at stadium changes (i.e., not just stadium name changes). I'm including all new stadiums since the dawn of time since I love this stuff:

Team	Yr	Park	BPF	Prev Yr	Park	BPF	Diff
Washington Nationals	2005	R.F.K. Stadium	93	2004	Stade Olympique/Hiram Bithorn Stadium	95	-2
Philadelphia Phillies	2004	Citizen's Bank Park	101	2003	Veterans Stadium	95	6
San Diego Padres	2004	Petco Park	92	2003	Qualcomm Stadium	91	1
Montreal Expos	2003	Stade Olympique/Hiram Bithorn Stadium	118	2002	Stade Olympique	101	17
Cincinnati Reds	2003	Great American Ball Park	100	2002	Cinergy Field	108	-8
Milwaukee Brewers	2001	Miller Park	101	2000	County Stadium	96	5
Pittsburgh Pirates	2001	PNC Park	100	2000	Three Rivers Stadium	98	2
Houston Astros	2000	Enron Field	107	1999	Astrodome	94	13
San Francisco Giants	2000	PacBell Park	91	1999	3Com Park	89	2
Detroit Tigers	2000	Comerica Park	97	1999	Tiger Stadium	101	-4
Seattle Mariners	2000	Safeco Field	91	1999	Kingdome / Safeco Field	103	-12
Seattle Mariners	1999	Kingdome / Safeco Field	103	1998	Kingdome	100	3
Atlanta Braves	1997	Turner Field	102	1996	Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium	106	-4
Colorado Rockies	1995	Coors Field	128	1994	Mile High Stadium	116	12
Texas Rangers	1994	The Ballpark at Arlington	100	1993	Arlington Stadium	96	4
Cleveland Indians	1994	Jacobs Field	100	1993	Cleveland Stadium	100	0
Baltimore Orioles	1992	Oriole Park at Camden Yards	103	1991	Memorial Stadium	96	7
Chicago White Sox	1991	Comiskey Park II	98	1990	Comiskey Park	98	0
Toronto Blue Jays	1990	Skydome	102	1989	Exhibition Stadium /Skydome	98	4
Toronto Blue Jays	1989	Exhibition Stadium /Skydome	98	1988	Exhibition Stadium	100	-2
Minnesota Twins	1982	Hubert H Humphrey Metrodome	103	1981	Metropolitan Stadium	107	-4
Montreal Expos	1977	Stade Olympique	97	1976	Jarry Park	104	-7
New York Yankees	1976	Yankee Stadium II	99	1975	Shea Stadium	97	2
New York Yankees	1974	Shea Stadium	97	1973	Yankee Stadium I	97	0
Kansas City Royals	1973	Royals Stadium	108	1972	Municipal Stadium II	100	8
Texas Rangers	1972	Arlington Stadium	96	1971	R.F.K. Stadium	94	2
Philadelphia Phillies	1971	Veterans Stadium	100	1970	Connie Mack Stadium	97	3
Pittsburgh Pirates	1971	Three Rivers Stadium	100	1970	Forbes Field/Three Rivers Stadium	98	2
Cincinnati Reds	1971	Riverfront Stadium	98	1970	Crosley Field/Riverfront Stadium	100	-2
Milwaukee Brewers	1970	County Stadium	101	1969	Sicks Stadium	98	3
Pittsburgh Pirates	1970	Forbes Field/Three Rivers Stadium	98	1969	Forbes Field	98	0
Cincinnati Reds	1970	Crosley Field/Riverfront Stadium	100	1969	Crosley Field	105	-5
Oakland Athletics	1968	Oakland Coliseum	95	1967	Municipal Stadium I	97	-2
St. Louis Cardinals	1967	Busch Stadium II	99	1966	Sportsman's Park IV/Busch Stadium II	101	-2
Atlanta Braves	1966	Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium	102	1965	County Stadium	101	1
California Angels	1966	Anaheim Stadium	97	1965	Dodger Stadium	98	-1
St. Louis Cardinals	1966	Sportsman's Park IV/Busch Stadium II	101	1965	Sportsman's Park IV	109	-8
Houston Astros	1965	Astrodome	93	1964	Colt Stadium	94	-1
New York Mets	1964	Shea Stadium	98	1963	Polo Grounds IV	102	-4
Washington Senators	1962	R.F.K. Stadium	99	1961	Griffith Stadium II	99	0
Los Angeles Angels	1962	Dodger Stadium	97	1961	Wrigley Field (LA)	111	-14
Los Angeles Dodgers	1962	Dodger Stadium	94	1961	Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum	109	-15
Minnesota Twins	1961	Metropolitan Stadium	106	1960	Griffith Stadium II	99	7
San Francisco Giants	1960	Candlestick Park	94	1959	Seals Stadium	98	-4
San Francisco Giants	1958	Seals Stadium	98	1957	Polo Grounds IV	100	-2
Los Angeles Dodgers	1958	Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum	103	1957	Ebbets Field	110	-7
Washington Senators	1956	Griffith Stadium II	100	1955	Griffith Stadium I	95	5
Kansas City Athletics	1955	Municipal Stadium I	101	1954	Connie Mack Stadium	100	1
Baltimore Orioles	1954	Memorial Stadium	93	1953	Sportsman's Park IV	102	-9
Milwaukee Braves	1953	County Stadium	94	1952	Braves Field	97	-3
Cleveland Indians	1947	Cleveland Stadium	97	1946	League Park II/Cleveland Stadium	94	3
Philadelphia Phillies	1939	Shibe Park	97	1938	Baker Bowl/Shibe Park	97	0
Philadelphia Phillies	1938	Baker Bowl/Shibe Park	97	1937	Baker Bowl	108	-11
Boston Red Sox	1934	Fenway Park II	107	1933	Fenway Park I	99	8
Cleveland Indians	1932	League Park II/Cleveland Stadium	107	1931	League Park II	106	1
New York Yankees	1923	Yankee Stadium I	102	1922	Polo Grounds IV	102	0
St. Louis Cardinals	1921	Sportsman's Park IV	98	1920	Robison Field/Sportsman's Park IV	96	2
St. Louis Cardinals	1920	Robison Field/Sportsman's Park IV	96	1919	Robison Field	94	2
Chicago Cubs	1916	Wrigley Field	111	1915	West Side Park II	100	11
Boston Braves	1916	Braves Field	96	1915	Fenway Park I / Braves Field	96	0
Boston Braves	1915	Fenway Park I / Braves Field	96	1914	South End Grounds III	99	-3
Brooklyn Superbas	1913	Ebbets Field	103	1912	Washington Park III	96	7
New York Yankees	1913	Polo Grounds IV	100	1912	Hilltop Park	106	-6
Boston Red Sox	1912	Fenway Park I	105	1911	Huntington Avenue Grounds	99	6
Cincinnati Reds	1912	Crosley Field	97	1911	Palace of the Fans	96	1
New York Giants	1912	Polo Grounds IV	103	1911	Polo Grounds III/Polo Grounds IV	103	0
Detroit Tigers	1912	Navin Field	97	1911	Bennett Park	105	-8
New York Giants	1911	Polo Grounds III/Polo Grounds IV	103	1910	Polo Grounds III	100	3
Washington Senators	1911	Griffith Stadium I	98	1910	American League Park II	95	3
Chicago White Sox	1911	Comiskey Park	97	1910	South Side Park II/Comiskey Park	96	1
Chicago White Sox	1910	South Side Park II/Comiskey Park	96	1909	South Side Park II	96	0
Pittsburgh Pirates	1910	Forbes Field	106	1909	Exposition Park/Forbes Field	108	-2
Cleveland Naps	1910	League Park II	101	1909	League Park I	104	-3
Pittsburgh Pirates	1909	Exposition Park/Forbes Field	108	1908	Exposition Park	100	8
Philadelphia Athletics	1909	Shibe Park	102	1908	Columbia Park	107	-5
St. Louis Browns	1909	Sportsman's Park IV	93	1908	Sportsman's Park III	101	-8
Washington Senators	1904	American League Park II	98	1903	American League Park I	102	-4
New York Highlanders	1903	Hilltop Park	106	1902	Oriole Park	104	2
Cincinnati Reds	1902	Palace of the Fans	110	1901	League Park II in Cincinnati	93	17
St. Louis Browns	1902	Sportsman's Park III	99	1901	Lloyd Street Grounds	95	4
Brooklyn Bridegrooms	1898	Washington Park III	100	1897	Eastern Park	95	5
Philadelphia Phillies	1895	Baker Bowl	100	1894	Philadelphia Baseball Grounds	97	3
Boston Beaneaters	1895	South End Grounds III	108	1894	South End Grounds II / Congress Street Grounds / South End Grounds III	108	0
Chicago Colts	1894	West Side Park II	105	1893	South Side Park I	99	6
Cincinnati Reds	1894	League Park II in Cincinnati	104	1893	League Park I in Cincinnati	102	2
Boston Beaneaters	1894	South End Grounds II / Congress Street Grounds / South End Grounds III	108	1893	South End Grounds II	108	0
St. Louis Browns	1893	Robison Field	100	1892	Sportsman's Park I	95	5
Louisville Colonels	1893	Eclipse Park II	92	1892	Eclipse Park I	92	0
Pittsburgh Pirates	1891	Exposition Park	98	1890	Recreation Park	88	10
Cleveland Spiders	1891	League Park I	104	1890	National League Park	98	6
Brooklyn Grooms	1891	Eastern Park	99	1890	Washington Park II	100	-1
New York Giants	1891	Polo Grounds III	96	1890	Polo Grounds II	100	-4
Chicago Colts	1891	South Side Park I	100	1890	West Side Park I	104	-4
Baltimore Orioles	1891	Union Park	101	1890	Oriole Park	105	-4
Brooklyn Bridegrooms	1890	Washington Park II	100	1889	Washington Park I	100	0
Cleveland Spiders	1889	National League Park	98	1888	National League Park II	97	1
New York Giants	1889	Polo Grounds II	100	1888	Polo Grounds I	99	1
Kansas City Cowboys	1889	Exposition Park	106	1888	Association Park I	106	0
Indianapolis Hoosiers	1888	Athletic Park II	102	1887	Athletic Park I	96	6
Boston Beaneaters	1888	South End Grounds II	102	1887	South End Grounds I	100	2
Philadelphia Quakers	1887	Philadelphia Baseball Grounds	106	1886	Recreation Park	101	5
New York Metropolitans	1886	St. George Cricket Grounds	96	1885	Polo Grounds I West Diamond	92	4
Chicago White Stockings	1885	West Side Park I	115	1884	Lake Front Park II	108	7
Pittsburgh Alleghenys	1884	Recreation Park	102	1883	Exposition Park I	95	7
Buffalo Bisons	1884	Olympic Park I	103	1883	Riverside Park	102	1
Cincinnati Red Stockings	1884	League Park I in Cincinnati	105	1883	Bank Street Grounds	106	-1
Baltimore Orioles	1883	Oriole Park	103	1882	Newington Park	92	11
Chicago White Stockings	1883	Lake Front Park II	106	1882	Lake Front Park I/Lake Front Park II	105	1
Philadelphia Athletics	1883	Jefferson Street Grounds	108	1882	Oakdale Park	112	-4
Chicago White Stockings	1882	Lake Front Park I/Lake Front Park II	105	1881	Lake Front Park I	105	0
Troy Trojans	1882	Troy Ball Clubs Grounds	95	1881	Haymakers' Grounds	105	-10
Troy Trojans	1880	Haymakers' Grounds	105	1879	Putnam Grounds	93	12
Cincinnati Reds	1880	Bank Street Grounds	99	1879	Avenue Grounds	95	4
Chicago White Stockings	1878	Lake Front Park I	107	1877	23rd Street Grounds	112	-5
Hartford Dark Blues	1877	Union Grounds (Brooklyn)	89	1876	Hartford Ball Club Grounds	108	-19
Brooklyn Atlantics	1873	Union Grounds	99	1872	Capitoline Grounds	104	-5

Now, here are stadiums for new ballclubs since 1901:

Team	Yr	Park	BPF
Arizona Diamondbacks	1998	Bank One Ballpark	101
Tampa Bay Devil Rays	1998	Tropicana Field	104
Florida Marlins	1993	Joe Robbie Stadium	102
Colorado Rockies	1993	Mile High Stadium	120
Seattle Mariners	1977	Kingdome	99
Toronto Blue Jays	1977	Exhibition Stadium	101
Kansas City Royals	1969	Municipal Stadium II	101
Seattle Pilots	1969	Sicks Stadium	98
Montreal Expos	1969	Jarry Park	100
San Diego Padres	1969	Jack Murphy Stadium	96
New York Mets	1962	Polo Grounds IV	102
Houston Colt .45's	1962	Colt Stadium	93
Washington Senators	1961	Griffith Stadium II	99
Los Angeles Angels	1961	Wrigley Field (LA)	111
Chicago Chi-Feds	1914	Wrigley Field	94
Chicago White Sox	1901	South Side Park II	97
Boston Americans	1901	Huntington Avenue Grounds	98
Milwaukee Brewers	1901	Lloyd Street Grounds	95
Detroit Tigers	1901	Bennett Park	105
Cleveland Blues	1901	League Park I	96
Philadelphia Athletics	1901	Columbia Park	104
Baltimore Orioles	1901	Oriole Park	104
Washington Senators	1901	American League Park I	99

You'll note that almost all of the new stadiums in the last 15 seasons have had ballparks that have BPFs greater than the league average. You may also notice that some parks have more ups and downs than Jason Giambi on a rollercoaster. I thought it might be fun to look at the standard deviation and variance for BPFs:

	Std Dev			Var
Decade	BPF	Prev BPF	Diff	BPF	Prev BPF	Diff
2000s	6.619	6.915	5.726	43.806	47.822	32.788
1990s	5.067	4.807	2.770	25.679	23.104	7.675
1980s	3.751	3.838	2.013	14.070	14.729	4.050
1970s	4.739	4.742	2.268	22.458	22.482	5.144
1960s	4.314	4.311	2.627	18.613	18.584	6.903
1950s	4.051	4.001	2.216	16.414	16.006	4.911
1940s	3.693	3.771	1.833	13.636	14.222	3.358
1930s	4.525	4.472	2.283	20.473	19.999	5.213
1920s	3.711	3.727	1.867	13.775	13.888	3.484
1910s	3.668	3.779	2.925	13.453	14.280	8.556
1900s	4.462	4.437	3.194	19.907	19.685	10.203
1890s	4.710	4.914	3.214	22.185	24.149	10.327
1880s	4.936	5.044	3.594	24.369	25.440	12.913
1870s	7.195	7.155	4.681	51.769	51.197	21.908

I think a couple of things are happening: As more homers are hit, the variation among team stadiums as well as for a given stadium from year to year goes up just because we're dealing with bigger numbers.

The other thing is that teams are building a number of idiosyncratic stadiums, and as each is built a cookie-cutter tin can stadium bids adieu. With the old Busch gone, Shea's the last one left, right? These throwback stadiums create throwback instability. This decade's BPF changes are closer to the 1890s than the 1990s.

The end result? Get used to the homers, and don't expect that a hitter's park one year will necessarily be one the next. Is it steroid use? Doubtful. Oh, and get off Barry Bonds' back.

Julio Franco became the oldest player to hit a home run last Thursday, connecting in the Mets 7-2 victory over the Padres. He nabs the record from pitcher Jack Quinn who homered once in 34 at-bats at the age of 46. Quinn had held the record since 1930—boy, must he be ticked off at Franco. By the way, Franco hit 9 last year at age 46, but was still edged out by Quinn.

Quinn hit only eight homers in 1349 at-bats. His second-to-last homer came eight years earlier when he was 38. He recorded 472 at-bats in those intervening eight seasons, and never recorded fewer than 46, and yet he hit his last in 34 at-bats. He collected just 35 at-bats in his final three seasons, before retiring at age 49.

Franco plans to play until age 50, and will be 49 when his current contract expires (if he doesn't first). If Franco can last that long, he'll be just the sixth man to do it, and given that none of them played more than 3 games in any season past 50, he can very easily collect the most games after turning 50.

Here are all the players to last in the majors to age 47, oldest to youngest:

Player	Yr	Age	G
Satchel Paige	1965	58	1
Minnie Minoso	1980	57	2
Nick Altrock	1933	56	1
Nick Altrock	1931	54	1
Minnie Minoso	1976	53	3
Jim O'Rourke	1904	53	1
Nick Altrock	1929	52	1
Charley O'Leary	1934	51	1
Hoyt Wilhelm	1972	49	16
Jimmy Austin	1929	49	1
Hughie Jennings	1918	49	1
Arlie Latham	1909	49	4
Jack Quinn	1933	49	14
Deacon McGuire	1912	48	1
Phil Niekro	1987	48	26
Gabby Street	1931	48	1
Hoyt Wilhelm	1971	48	12
Jack Quinn	1932	48	42
Hoyt Wilhelm	1970	47	53
Kaiser Wilhelm	1921	47	4
Jack Quinn	1931	47	39
Nick Altrock	1924	47	1
Johnny Evers	1929	47	1
Phil Niekro	1986	47	34
Julio Franco	2006	47	10

Note that all of the previous players have amassed just 261 at-bats after turning 47. Franco could equal that before his current contract is done, and of course, he's already out-homered the entire group.

There are 224 player seasons in which the given player was over 40 and hit at least one home run, four of which come this season (Franco, Craig Biggio, Steve Finley, and, finally, Barry Bonds). Altogether those players have collected 1289 taters in 52202 at-bats or a dinger in 2.47% of those player at-bats. Below are all the players to homer past age 44:

Name	Yr	Age	HR	AB	%
Julio Franco	2006	47	1	9	11.11%
Jack Quinn	1930	46	1	34	2.94%
Julio Franco	2005	46	9	233	3.86%
Cap Anson	1897	45	3	424	0.71%
Carlton Fisk	1993	45	1	53	1.89%
Julio Franco	2004	45	6	320	1.88%
Cap Anson	1896	44	2	402	0.50%
Carlton Fisk	1992	44	3	188	1.60%
Julio Franco	2003	44	5	197	2.54%
Pete Rose	1985	44	2	405	0.49%
Rickey Henderson	2003	44	2	72	2.78%
Sam Rice	1934	44	1	335	0.30%
Tony Perez	1986	44	2	200	1.00%

Now, here are the most per season after age 40:

Name	Yr	Age	HR	AB	%
Darrell Evans	1987	40	34	499	6.81%
Ted Williams	1960	41	29	310	9.35%
Dave Winfield	1992	40	26	583	4.46%
Hank Sauer	1957	40	26	378	6.88%
Harold Baines	1999	40	25	430	5.81%
Edgar Martinez	2003	40	24	497	4.83%
Darrell Evans	1988	41	22	437	5.03%
Eddie Murray	1996	40	22	566	3.89%
Dave Winfield	1993	41	21	547	3.84%
Hank Aaron	1974	40	20	340	5.88%
Stan Musial	1962	41	19	433	4.39%
Carlton Fisk	1988	40	19	253	7.51%
George Brett	1993	40	19	560	3.39%

And finally, here are the players with the highest percentage of home runs in their at-bats:

Name	Yr	Age	HR	AB	%
Deacon McGuire	1907	43	1	5	20.00%
Nick Altrock	1918	41	1	8	12.50%
Barry Bonds	2005	40	5	42	11.90%
Julio Franco	2006	47	1	9	11.11%
Andres Galarraga	2004	43	1	10	10.00%
Ted Williams	1960	41	29	310	9.35%
Bob Thurman	1957	40	16	190	8.42%
Babe Ruth	1935	40	6	72	8.33%
Cy Williams	1929	41	5	65	7.69%
Carlton Fisk	1988	40	19	253	7.51%
Hank Sauer	1957	40	26	378	6.88%
Darrell Evans	1987	40	34	499	6.81%
Merv Shea	1944	43	1	15	6.67%
Hank Sauer	1959	42	1	15	6.67%
Walker Cooper	1955	40	7	111	6.31%

As for the most home runs past age 40, Franco, largely a role player late in his career, barely cracks the list of leaders:

Name	HR	AB	%
Carlton Fisk	72	1781	4.04%
Darrell Evans	67	1212	5.53%
Dave Winfield	59	1539	3.83%
Carl Yastrzemski	48	1541	3.11%
Stan Musial	46	1142	4.03%
Hank Aaron	42	1076	3.90%
Andres Galarraga	39	973	4.01%
Hank Sauer	39	629	6.20%
Ted Williams	39	582	6.70%
Graig Nettles	37	1064	3.48%
Edgar Martinez	36	983	3.66%
Harold Baines	36	797	4.52%
Reggie Jackson	33	755	4.37%
Willie Mays	32	870	3.68%
Rickey Henderson	31	1488	2.08%
Julio Franco	30	1188	2.53%
Willie McCovey	28	817	3.43%
Brian Downing	27	727	3.71%
Eddie Murray	25	733	3.41%
Tony Perez	22	969	2.27%

And he comes nowhere near the leaders in home runs per at-bat post-40:

Name	HR	AB	%
Nick Altrock	1	11	9.09%
Babe Ruth	6	72	8.33%
Barry Bonds	6	77	7.79%
Ted Williams	39	582	6.70%
Merv Shea	1	15	6.67%
Hank Sauer	39	629	6.20%
Darrell Evans	67	1212	5.53%
Bob Thurman	20	372	5.38%
Cy Williams	17	320	5.31%
Charlie O'Brien	1	19	5.26%
Tom Paciorek	3	60	5.00%

Franco does, however, own the post-45 homer list:

Name	HR	AB	%
Julio Franco	16	562	2.85%
Cap Anson	3	424	0.71%
Jack Quinn	1	130	0.77%
Carlton Fisk	1	53	1.89%

Given the number of post-40 players to homer this year, you won't be surprised to find that the 2000s, or whatever we call the current decade, project to the most home runs after turning forty in baseball history. However, Franco and his aged compatriots will have to double their efforts to top the Fifties homers per at-bats after turning forty:

Decade	HR	AB	%
1870s	0	146	0.00%
1880s	7	2010	0.35%
1890s	20	4951	0.40%
1900s	14	3404	0.41%
1910s	12	3433	0.35%
1920s	36	3839	0.94%
1930s	24	4870	0.49%
1940s	37	5844	0.63%
1950s	115	3706	3.10%
1960s	96	3152	3.05%
1970s	115	3753	3.06%
1980s	310	12877	2.41%
1990s	291	11103	2.62%
2000s	212	7879	2.69%

Freddie Garcia beat the Twins yesterday, 9-2, to help the White Sox Sweep Minnesota in a three-game series. It was also the seventh win in their current eight-game winning streak. It was also Garcia's 102nd win in his eight-year career.

That might seem the most meaningless of the three consequences of the Saturday win, but of course that's the one I am going to bloviate upon. You see, by winning 102 games Garcia ties Wilson Alvarez for the all-time wins for a Venezuelan pitcher.

If that seems a bit low, it is, sort of. The Venezuelan co-leaders come in at just 14th if you rank the win leaders by country, behind such baseball hot beds as Ireland, Germany, and Holland.

Here are the all-time leaders for all countries:

Country	Name	W	L	G	ERA	Yrs	First	Last
USA	Cy Young	511	316	906	2.63	22	1890	1911
Holland	Bert Blyleven	287	250	692	3.31	22	1970	1992
CAN	Fergie Jenkins	284	226	664	3.34	19	1965	1983
Ireland	Tony Mullane	284	220	555	3.05	13	1881	1894
Scotland	Jim McCormick	265	214	492	2.43	10	1878	1887
Nicaragua	Dennis Martinez	245	193	692	3.70	23	1976	1998
D.R.	Juan Marichal	243	142	471	2.89	16	1960	1975
Cuba	Luis Tiant	229	172	573	3.30	19	1964	1982
Mexico	Fernando Valenzuela	173	153	453	3.54	17	1980	1997
Germany	Charlie Getzein	145	139	296	3.46	9	1884	1892
P.R.	Juan Pizarro	131	105	488	3.43	18	1957	1974
Japan	Hideo Nomo	123	109	320	4.21	11	1995	2005
South Korea	Chan Ho Park	106	80	299	4.33	12	1994	2005
Venezuela	Wilson Alvarez	102	92	355	3.96	14	1989	2005
Venezuela	Freddy Garcia	102	63	223	3.96	8	1999	2006
Wales	Ted Lewis	94	64	183	3.53	6	1896	1901
Poland	Moe Drabowsky	88	105	589	3.71	17	1956	1972
Aruba	Sidney Ponson	76	91	233	4.81	8	1998	2005
England	Danny Cox	74	75	278	3.64	11	1983	1995
Switzerland	Otto Hess	70	90	198	2.98	10	1902	1915
V.I.	Al McBean	67	50	409	3.13	10	1961	1970
Panama	Juan Berenguer	67	62	490	3.90	15	1978	1992
France	Charlie Lea	62	48	152	3.54	7	1980	1988
W.Germany	Craig Lefferts	58	72	696	3.43	12	1983	1994
South Vietnam	Danny Graves	41	43	505	4.02	10	1996	2005
Sweden	Eric Erickson	34	57	145	3.85	7	1914	1922
Australia	Graeme Lloyd	30	36	568	4.04	10	1993	2003
Italy	Marino Pieretti	30	38	194	4.53	6	1945	1950
Philippines	Bobby Chouinard	11	8	111	4.57	5	1996	2001
Russia	Rube Schauer	10	29	93	3.35	5	1913	1917
Taiwan	Chien-Ming Wang	8	5	18	4.02	1	2005	2005
Ukraine	Izzy Goldstein	3	2	16	4.47	1	1932	1932
Spain	Bryan Oelkers	3	8	45	6.01	2	1983	1986
Norway	Jimmy Wiggs	3	4	13	3.81	3	1903	1906
Czechoslovakia	Joe Hovlik	2	0	16	3.62	3	1909	1911
Afghanistan	Jeff Bronkey	2	2	45	4.04	3	1993	1995
Bahamas	Wenty Ford	1	2	4	5.51	1	1973	1973
Finland	John Michaelson	0	0	2	10.13	1	1921	1921
Austria	Kurt Krieger	0	0	3	12.60	2	1949	1951
Jamaica	Chili Davis	0	0	1	-	1	1993	1993
A Ship on Atlantic Ocean	Ed Porray	0	1	3	4.35	1	1914	1914

It's odd to think that no 300-game winner has come from a foreign country, and even odder to realize that Chili Davis constitutes Jamaica's only major-league pitcher.

All of this made me wonder how various countries rank overall in certain categories. Here goes…First, number of pitchers:

Country	# Pitchers
USA	6973
D.R.	189
CAN	107
None	97
Venezuela	70
Cuba	69
Mexico	59
P.R.	57
Japan	22
Ireland	16
Panama	16

Now wins:

Country	W	L
USA	170262	170495
D.R.	3509	3405
CAN	1773	1876
Cuba	1765	1726
P.R.	1490	1454
Mexico	1282	1257
Venezuela	1111	1046
Ireland	638	566
None	606	654
Japan	387	418

Winning Percentage:

Country	# Pitchers	Yrs	W	L	PCT
Czechoslovakia	1	3	2	0	1.000
Wales	1	6	94	64	.595
Philippines	1	5	11	8	.579
V.I.	2	11	67	50	.573
Taiwan	3	5	12	9	.571
France	2	8	63	49	.563
Nicaragua	6	41	340	289	.541
Panama	16	67	234	203	.535
Scotland	4	21	310	271	.534
Holland	3	27	309	274	.530
Ireland	16	52	638	566	.530

Games:

Country	G
USA	768091
D.R.	24657
CAN	9804
P.R.	9600
Cuba	8310
Mexico	7812
Venezuela	7073
Japan	2541
Panama	1963
None	1936

Saves:

Country	SV
USA	47,519
D.R.	1944
P.R.	857
CAN	720
Cuba	590
Venezuela	584
Mexico	531
Panama	433
Japan	225
South Vietnam	182

ERA:

Country	IP	ERA
Jamaica	2.0	0.00
Scotland	5,189.3	2.66
Switzerland	1,418.0	2.98
Ireland	10,832.7	3.04
V.I.	1,074.7	3.12
Holland	5,394.0	3.36
Wales	1,405.0	3.53
France	944.7	3.60
Czechoslovakia	54.7	3.62
Russia	435.7	3.66

WHIP

Country	IP	ERA	WHIP
Jamaica	2.0	0.00	0.00
Scotland	5,189.3	2.66	1.18
Holland	5,394.0	3.36	1.22
Ireland	10,832.7	3.04	1.25
Switzerland	1,418.0	2.98	1.27
Nicaragua	5,556.7	3.83	1.29
Poland	1,641.0	3.71	1.31
W.Germany	1,476.0	3.68	1.31
Panama	4,099.3	3.84	1.32
France	944.7	3.60	1.32

And finally strikeouts per nine innings:

Country	IP	ERA	WHIP	K:BB	K/9IP
South Korea	3,220.7	4.30	1.39	1.90	7.36
Norway	56.7	3.81	1.61	1.21	7.31
Japan	7,087.0	4.37	1.40	1.85	7.03
Panama	4,099.3	3.84	1.32	1.96	6.74
D.R.	61,864.7	4.09	1.34	1.93	6.59
Venezuela	19,434.0	4.16	1.38	1.78	6.50
Poland	1,641.0	3.71	1.31	1.66	6.37
Holland	5,394.0	3.36	1.22	2.71	6.28
Mexico	22,521.0	4.04	1.36	1.81	6.03
W.Germany	1,476.0	3.68	1.31	1.97	5.71
P.R.	26,175.0	4.07	1.39	1.63	5.69

We are all born mad (dog). Some remain so.
— From "Waiting for Godot" by Samuel "Don't Call Me Josh" Beckett

Not all players in their forties are struggling to achieve mediocrity. Two ex-Braves are leading the National League in ERA. They are, of course, Greg Maddux (1.33) and Tom Glavine (1.38).

Maddux, with Roger Clemens on hiatus, becomes the active leader in wins. He is now reminding fans that until the last few years, the debate as to whom was the best pitcher of his era, him or Clemens, was a hot topic. Maddux, a sure-fire Hall of Famer, saw his star tarnish the last few years but seems reborn this year.

With three wins, he no projects to—what?—forty or so for the season and comparison's to Old Hoss Radbourne abound. However, realistically a return to twenty wins is a definite possibility for Maddux. It would be his third twenty-win season but his first since 1993 (even though he has won two Cy Youngs since then).

That made me wonder what was the longest gap between twenty-win seasons for a pitcher in baseball history. Would 13 years be a new "record"?

The answer is that ten seasons is the most and it was down twice, once recently by a player who won twenty the first time with the Mets and the second time with the Yankees (Who else can say that?). There have only been 25 gaps of five seasons or more. Maddux's ex-teammate Glavine makes the list as does Phil Niekro, another ex-Brave…twice!

Name	Yr1	W	L	ERA	Yr2	W	L	ERA	#Yrs
Bert Cunningham	1888	22	29	3.39	1898	28	15	3.16	10
David Cone	1988	20	3	2.22	1998	20	7	3.55	10
George Bradley	1876	45	19	1.23	1884	25	15	2.71	8
Jim Kaat	1966	25	13	2.75	1974	21	13	2.92	8
Andy Pettitte	1996	21	8	3.87	2003	21	8	4.02	7
Billy Rhines	1890	28	17	1.95	1897	21	15	4.08	7
Bobby Mathews	1876	21	34	2.86	1883	30	13	2.46	7
Ed Reulbach	1908	24	7	2.03	1915	21	10	2.23	7
Roger Clemens	1990	21	6	1.93	1997	21	7	2.05	7
Bill Donovan	1901	25	15	2.77	1907	25	4	2.19	6
Eppa Rixey	1916	22	10	1.85	1922	25	13	3.53	6
Jack Morris	1986	21	8	3.27	1992	21	6	4.04	6
Adonis Terry	1890	26	16	2.94	1895	21	14	4.80	5
Al Orth	1901	20	12	2.27	1906	27	17	2.34	5
Bob Feller	1941	25	13	3.15	1946	26	15	2.18	5
Brickyard Kennedy	1894	24	20	4.92	1899	22	9	2.79	5
Frank Lary	1956	21	13	3.15	1961	23	9	3.24	5
Kid Nichols	1899	21	19	2.99	1904	21	13	2.02	5
Luis Tiant	1968	21	9	1.60	1973	20	13	3.34	5
Phil Niekro	1969	23	13	2.56	1974	20	13	2.38	5
Phil Niekro	1974	20	13	2.38	1979	21	20	3.39	5
Red Faber	1915	24	14	2.55	1920	23	13	2.99	5
Ron Guidry	1978	25	3	1.74	1983	21	9	3.42	5
Tom Glavine	1993	22	6	3.20	1998	20	6	2.47	5
Walter Johnson	1919	20	14	1.49	1924	23	7	2.72	5

Bert Cunningham, you might recall, was Richie's brother in the original Happy Days lineup. I've never heard of this Cone guy though.

Back to Maddux: If he wins twenty, it'll be just the eighth time in baseball history that a forty-something pitcher has done so:

Name	Yr	W	L	ERA	Age
Warren Spahn	1963	23	7	2.60	42
Cy Young	1908	21	11	1.26	41
Phil Niekro	1979	21	20	3.39	40
Cy Young	1907	21	15	1.99	40
Jamie Moyer	2003	21	7	3.27	40
Pete Alexander	1927	21	10	2.52	40
Warren Spahn	1961	21	13	3.02	40
Eddie Plank	1915	21	11	2.08	39
Gaylord Perry	1978	21	6	2.73	39
Warren Spahn	1960	21	10	3.50	39
Early Wynn	1959	22	10	3.17	39
Spud Chandler	1946	20	8	2.10	38
Roger Clemens	2001	20	3	3.51	38
Jamie Moyer	2001	20	6	3.43	38
Warren Spahn	1959	21	15	2.96	38
Randy Johnson	2002	24	5	2.32	38

Even if Maddux does not win twenty, he seems like a lock to win at least 15. If so, he will tie Cy Young for the most 15-win seasons ever:

Name	#Yrs
Cy Young	18
Greg Maddux	17
Walter Johnson	16
Warren Spahn	16
Eddie Plank	15
Pete Alexander	15
Tom Seaver	13
Phil Niekro	13
Gaylord Perry	13
Christy Mathewson	13
Steve Carlton	12
Don Sutton	12
Jim Palmer	12
Jack Morris	12
Roger Clemens	12
Kid Nichols	12
Red Ruffing	11
Jack Taylor	11
Pud Galvin	11
Lefty Grove	11
Burleigh Grimes	11
Tim Keefe	11
Mickey Welch	10
Gus Weyhing	10
Bob Feller	10
Early Wynn	10
Fergie Jenkins	10
Randy Johnson	10
Bert Blyleven	10
Robin Roberts	10
Whitey Ford	10
Bob Gibson	10

Speaking of which, there was a time when it seemed that the Cy Young Award would be renamed the Greg Maddux. If he wins one this year, it'll be one for Jerome Bettis's thumb, or words to that effect. Here are the multiple Cy Young winners:

Roger Clemens	7
Randy Johnson	5
Greg Maddux	4
Steve Carlton	4
Pedro Martinez	3
Jim Palmer	3
Tom Seaver	3
Sandy Koufax	3
Gaylord Perry	2
Denny McLain	2
Bob Gibson	2
Bret Saberhagen	2
Tom Glavine	2

So as Maddux and Glavine return to their old glories, the Braves top winner—and the league's—is reliever Oscar Villarreal. He could become the first twenty-game winner to never start a game. Here are the most wins without a start in season:

Name	Yr	G	W	L	ERA
Roy Face	1959	57	18	1	2.70
Bill Campbell	1976	78	17	5	3.01
John Hiller	1974	59	17	14	2.64
Dick Radatz	1964	79	16	9	2.29
Jim Konstanty	1950	74	16	7	2.66
Ron Perranoski	1963	69	16	3	1.67
Tom Johnson	1977	71	16	7	3.13
Dale Murray	1975	63	15	8	3.96
Dick Radatz	1963	66	15	6	1.97
Eddie Fisher	1965	82	15	7	2.40
Hoyt Wilhelm	1952	71	15	3	2.43
Luis Arroyo	1961	65	15	5	2.19
Mike Marshall	1974	106	15	12	2.42
Frank Linzy	1969	58	14	9	3.64
Hersh Freeman	1956	64	14	5	3.40
Jim Slaton	1983	46	14	6	4.33
Mark Clear	1982	55	14	9	3.00
Mark Eichhorn	1986	69	14	6	1.72
Mike Marshall	1972	65	14	8	1.78
Mike Marshall	1973	92	14	11	2.66
Phil Regan	1966	65	14	1	1.62
Roger McDowell	1986	75	14	9	3.02
Ron Davis	1979	44	14	2	2.85
Stu Miller	1961	63	14	5	2.66
Stu Miller	1965	67	14	7	1.89

The Phils came back from a three-run deficit in the eighth to beat the Nationals, 7-6 in ten innings, tonight. It was just their second win at home against six losses so far this season. It was the first Phils comeback in the final three innings in eight tries.

It was also Ryan Franklin's first win as a Phils, an inauspicious event to be sure. However, I had to mention it since any win by Franklin might be his last and at least they'll get this compensation for their $2.6M investment.

The Phils do own a 4-2 record on the road, which is probably nothing more than dumb luck at this stage of the season. But let's say the Phils are awful at home and great on the road this year. Would such a feat be unprecedented?

I looked up the greatest differences between a team's road and home records and here goes:

Team	Yr	Diff	Tot W	Tot L	PCT	H W	H L	PCT	R W	R L	PCT
Chicago Cubs	1994	.198	49	64	.434	20	39	.339	29	25	.537
Pittsburgh Pirates	1908	.182	98	56	.632	42	35	.545	56	21	.727
Kansas City Royals	1998	.168	72	89	.447	29	51	.363	43	38	.531
Philadelphia Athletics	1948	.156	84	70	.545	36	41	.468	48	29	.623
Brooklyn Dodgers	1948	.156	84	70	.542	36	41	.468	48	29	.623
Boston Red Sox	1980	.150	83	77	.519	36	45	.444	47	32	.595
Kansas City Royals	1981	.149	50	53	.485	19	28	.404	31	25	.554
Cincinnati Reds	2001	.148	66	96	.407	27	54	.333	39	42	.481
St. Louis Cardinals	1928	.143	95	59	.617	42	35	.545	53	24	.688
Boston Braves	1923	.130	54	100	.348	22	55	.286	32	45	.416
Chicago White Sox	1912	.130	78	76	.494	34	43	.442	44	33	.571
Cincinnati Reds	1972	.127	95	59	.617	42	34	.553	53	25	.679
Chicago Cubs	1909	.122	104	49	.671	47	29	.618	57	20	.740
Oakland Athletics	1971	.120	101	60	.627	46	35	.568	55	25	.688
Los Angeles Dodgers	1970	.119	87	74	.540	39	42	.481	48	32	.600
Milwaukee Brewers	1999	.119	74	87	.460	32	48	.400	42	39	.519
Washington Senators	1960	.117	73	81	.474	32	45	.416	41	36	.532
San Diego Padres	1972	.113	58	95	.379	26	54	.325	32	41	.438
Philadelphia Phillies	1923	.113	50	104	.323	20	55	.267	30	49	.380
Brooklyn Superbas	1913	.112	65	84	.428	29	47	.382	36	37	.493
Boston Red Sox	2002	.111	93	69	.574	42	39	.519	51	30	.630
New York Mets	1968	.111	73	89	.448	32	49	.395	41	40	.506
San Diego Padres	2001	.111	79	83	.488	35	46	.432	44	37	.543
Detroit Tigers	1917	.111	78	75	.506	34	41	.453	44	34	.564
Seattle Mariners	1981	.111	44	65	.400	20	37	.351	24	28	.462

OK, there are some teams who weren't bad at home, just not as good as on the road. Let's look at just those teams with a winning record on the road and a losing record at home. There are just 63 in baseball history, the Cubs and D-Backs last year being the latest. Their average record was 80-82, which so far, seems about right for this uneven team. Here are the most lopsided of that group:

Team	Yr	Diff	Tot W	Tot L	PCT	H W	H L	PCT	R W	R L	PCT
Chicago Cubs	1994	.198	49	64	.434	20	39	.339	29	25	.537
Kansas City Royals	1998	.168	72	89	.447	29	51	.363	43	38	.531
Philadelphia Athletics	1948	.156	84	70	.545	36	41	.468	48	29	.623
Brooklyn Dodgers	1948	.156	84	70	.542	36	41	.468	48	29	.623
Boston Red Sox	1980	.150	83	77	.519	36	45	.444	47	32	.595
Kansas City Royals	1981	.149	50	53	.485	19	28	.404	31	25	.554
Chicago White Sox	1912	.130	78	76	.494	34	43	.442	44	33	.571
Los Angeles Dodgers	1970	.119	87	74	.540	39	42	.481	48	32	.600
Milwaukee Brewers	1999	.119	74	87	.460	32	48	.400	42	39	.519
Washington Senators	1960	.117	73	81	.474	32	45	.416	41	36	.532
New York Mets	1968	.111	73	89	.448	32	49	.395	41	40	.506
San Diego Padres	2001	.111	79	83	.488	35	46	.432	44	37	.543
Detroit Tigers	1917	.111	78	75	.506	34	41	.453	44	34	.564
St. Louis Cardinals	1994	.107	53	61	.461	23	33	.411	30	28	.517
Detroit Tigers	1956	.104	82	72	.529	37	40	.481	45	32	.584

And if the Phils remain this bad at home, they will challenge for the all-time worst record at home (at least since 1901):

Team	Yr	Diff	Tot W	Tot L	PCT	H W	H L	PCT	R W	R L	PCT
St. Louis Browns	1939	.091	43	111	.276	18	59	.234	25	52	.325
Boston Rustlers	1911	.060	44	107	.282	19	54	.260	25	53	.321
Philadelphia Athletics	1915	.036	43	109	.279	19	53	.264	24	56	.300
Philadelphia Phillies	1923	.113	50	104	.323	20	55	.267	30	49	.380
New York Mets	1962	-.050	40	120	.248	22	58	.275	18	62	.225
Detroit Tigers	2003	-.037	43	119	.265	23	58	.284	20	61	.247
Philadelphia Phillies	1961	.039	47	107	.303	22	55	.286	25	52	.325
Boston Braves	1923	.130	54	100	.348	22	55	.286	32	45	.416
Kansas City Athletics	1956	.104	52	102	.338	22	55	.286	30	47	.390
Philadelphia Phillies	1945	.026	46	108	.299	22	55	.286	24	53	.312
Boston Pilgrims	1906	.057	49	105	.316	22	54	.289	27	51	.346
Montreal Expos	1969	.049	52	110	.321	24	57	.296	28	53	.346
Pittsburgh Pirates	1952	-.052	42	112	.271	23	54	.299	19	58	.247
St. Louis Browns	1953	.104	54	100	.351	23	54	.299	31	46	.403
Philadelphia Athletics	1919	-.086	36	104	.257	21	49	.300	15	55	.214
Philadelphia Athletics	1916	-.134	36	117	.234	23	53	.303	13	64	.169
Philadelphia Phillies	1940	.048	50	103	.327	24	55	.304	26	48	.351
Philadelphia Phillies	1941	-.054	43	111	.277	23	52	.307	20	59	.253
Washington Senators	1904	-.109	38	113	.242	23	52	.307	15	61	.197
Philadelphia Phillies	1942	-.064	42	109	.278	23	51	.311	19	58	.247
St. Louis Browns	1951	.052	52	102	.338	24	53	.312	28	49	.364
Toronto Blue Jays	1977	.046	54	107	.335	25	55	.313	29	52	.358
Pittsburgh Pirates	1917	.022	51	103	.325	25	53	.321	26	50	.342
St. Louis Browns	1911	-.050	45	107	.296	25	53	.321	20	54	.270
Toronto Blue Jays	1981	.057	37	69	.349	17	36	.321	20	33	.377
Kansas City Athletics	1964	.062	57	105	.350	26	55	.321	31	50	.383

Boy, am I glad that this team has the estimable Charlie Manuel there to guide them toward abject mediocrity. How long is it until Stand Pat Gillick starts moving veterans who will be free at the year's end? That is, if he can.

Tonight Chris Shelton goes for his tenth home run of the season in his first fourteen games as his Tigers face the A's in Oakland. He currently projects to 112 on the season, which is slightly behind projecto-Albert Pujols at 116. Take that McGwire and Sosa, you wimps.

Coming into this season, Shelton had just 19 career homers. Even if he fails to reach his projected 112 homers, one would expect him to very easily double his career home run total. He's almost halfway there now and has 149 games left to go.

That made me wonder what was the most a player, who already had some major-league experience under his belt (at least 100 games and 15 home runs), upped his career home run total in a single season while doubling his career home run total. When Shelton hits 112th this year, whose "record" will he be breaking?

The answer would be that pitcher-cum-outfielder named Babe Ruth:

Player	Yr	Career HR	HR	Prev HR
Babe Ruth	1920	103	54	49
Johnny Bench	1970	87	45	42
Lou Gehrig	1927	84	47	37
Cecil Fielder	1990	82	51	31
Brian Giles	1999	78	39	39
Reggie Jackson	1969	77	47	30
Troy Glaus	2000	77	47	30
Joe DiMaggio	1937	75	46	29
Juan Gonzalez	1992	75	43	32
Lee May	1969	74	38	36
Ralph Kiner	1947	74	51	23
Darrell Evans	1973	72	41	31
Eddie Mathews	1953	72	47	25
Steve Balboni	1985	71	36	35
Ripper Collins	1934	70	35	35
Nomar Garciaparra	1998	69	35	34
Jim Gentile	1961	68	46	22
Richard Hidalgo	2000	68	44	24
Charlie Keller	1941	65	33	32
Ernie Banks	1955	65	44	21
Todd Helton	1999	65	35	30
Willie Mays	1954	65	41	24

Shelton would also be increasing his homer total fivefold. What was the greatest percentage increase for a player's career home run total in a single season:

Player	Yr	Career HR	HR	Prev HR	%
Ralph Kiner	1947	74	51	23	222%
Mel Ott	1929	61	42	19	221%
Ernie Banks	1955	65	44	21	210%
Jim Gentile	1961	68	46	22	209%
Jimmie Foxx	1929	49	33	16	206%
Hideki Matsui	2004	47	31	16	194%
Mike Schmidt	1974	55	36	19	189%
Phil Plantier	1993	52	34	18	189%
Eddie Mathews	1953	72	47	25	188%
Ruben Sierra	1987	46	30	16	188%
Chase Utley	2005	43	28	15	187%
Travis Hafner	2004	43	28	15	187%
Norm Cash	1961	63	41	22	186%
Alfonso Soriano	2002	60	39	21	186%
Richard Hidalgo	2000	68	44	24	183%
Jason Thompson	1977	48	31	17	182%
Wally Post	1955	62	40	22	182%
Fernando Tatis	1999	53	34	19	179%
Henry Rodriguez	1996	57	36	21	171%
Willie Mays	1954	65	41	24	171%
Mo Vaughn	1993	46	29	17	171%

Kiner had 23 in his first season (1946) and then 51 in his second, a 122% increase. That's measly compared to Projecto-Shelton.

One last thing, Shelton will be 26 this season, which made me wonder who was the oldest player to double his career home run total. Let's ask Mr. Owl:

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Player	Yr	Career HR	HR	Prev HR	%	Age
Bob Thurman	1957	31	16	15	107%	40
George Crowe	1957	62	31	31	100%	36
Sam Jethroe	1951	36	18	18	100%	33
Bob Cerv	1958	61	38	23	165%	32
Monte Irvin	1951	39	24	15	160%	32
Ken Williams	1921	40	24	16	150%	31
Roman Mejias	1962	41	24	17	141%	31
Hideki Matsui	2004	47	31	16	194%	30
Casey Blake	2004	47	28	19	147%	30
Geronimo Berroa	1995	37	22	15	147%	30
Dale Long	1956	46	27	19	142%	30
Melvin Mora	2002	34	19	15	127%	30
Chuck Workman	1945	46	25	21	119%