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Monthly archives: November 2004

 

Hall-abaloo
2004-11-30 23:28
by Mike Carminati

Fame will go by and, so long, I’ve had you, fame. If it goes by, I’ve always known it was fickle. So at least it’s something I experienced, but that’s not where I live.

—Marilyn "Pete" Monroe

Yesterday, Major League Baseball released the 2005 Hall of Fame baseball writers' ballot. The obvious choice on this year's ballot is first timer Wade Boggs, a certain first-ballot inductee. With just 27 players on the ballot, 12 first-timers, this is one of the smallest pools ever presented to the writers. Perhaps it will simplify the vote to such a degree that one or two more inductees will be culled from the bubble candidates—can I get a Ryne Sandberg, brothers and sisters?

I would like to take a look at the writers' ballot as I did last year and with a little help from a study on the Hall elections that I did last offseason. First, here is the ballot with some pertinent data for each player:

NameFirst YearYrs Elig Left
Jim Abbott200515
Bert Blyleven19999
Wade Boggs200515
Tom Candiotti200515
Dave Concepcion19944
Chili Davis200515
Andre Dawson200212
Steve Garvey19933
Rich Gossage200010
Tommy John19955
Mark Langston200515
Don Mattingly200111
Jack McDowell200515
Willie McGee200515
Jeff Montgomery200515
Jack Morris200010
Dale Murphy19999
Otis Nixon200515
Dave Parker19977
Tony Phillips200515
Jim Rice19955
Ryne Sandberg200313
Lee Smith200313
Terry Steinbach200515
Darryl Strawberry200515
Bruce Sutter19944
Alan Trammell200212

They did a decent job of selecting the best candidates from this year's newly eligible players. Of the first-timers with at least 122 career Win Shares Jeff Blauser (154) and
Brian McRae (132) were the only ones overlooked.

Now, let's run the candidates through their paces. Here is a comparison using Bill James's Hall of Fame criteria. Also, I threw in Blauser, McRae, and the other overlooked newly eligibles with at least 100 Win Shares:

NameBlack Ink (Avg 40 P, 27 B)>HOF AvgGray Ink (Avg 185 P, 144 B)>HOF AvgHOF Standard (Avg 50)>HOF AvgHOF Monitor (Likely >100)Likely HOF?
Jim Abbott0No28No3.0No6.0No
Bert Blyleven16No239Yes50.0Yes120.5Yes
Wade Boggs37Yes138No57.5Yes268.0Yes
Tom Candiotti2No62No17.0No11.5No
Dave Concepcion0No25No29.1No106.5Yes
Chili Davis0No45No38.0No29.0No
Andre Dawson11No164Yes43.7No118.0Yes
Steve Garvey12No142No31.5No130.5Yes
Rich Gossage9No41No19.0No126.0Yes
Tommy John8No137No44.0No111.0Yes
Mark Langston12No128No23.0No64.0No
Don Mattingly23No111No34.1No133.5Yes
Jack McDowell13No85No18.0No36.5No
Willie McGee12No56No22.9No77.5No
Jeff Montgomery3No27No0.0No74.0No
Jack Morris20No190Yes39.0No122.5Yes
Dale Murphy31Yes147Yes34.3No115.5Yes
Otis Nixon0No27No15.1No2.5No
Dave Parker26No145Yes41.1No125.5Yes
Tony Phillips7No42No32.7No26.5No
Jim Rice33Yes176Yes42.9No146.5Yes
Ryne Sandberg14No134No42.7No157.5Yes
Lee Smith12No48No13.0No136.0Yes
Terry Steinbach0No0No25.0No47.0No
Darryl Strawberry7No100No29.6No56.5No
Bruce Sutter15No30No17.0No91.0No
Alan Trammell0No48No40.4No118.5Yes
And the rest…
Jeff Blauser0No9No23.0No34.0No
Brian McRae1No25No11.3No5.0No
Jeff King0No11No12.9No11.0No
Mike Macfarlane0No0No25.1No2.0No
Mark Portugal4No18No8.0No8.0No

Next, let's compare the players to their similar players from Baseball-Reference.com. How many of the similar players who were eligible for the Hall are actually in? We'll also throw in career Win Shares. Using the data from my Hall study last season, we know that 337 Win Shares is the Hall average. Finally, from the six criteria in both tables, we'll rate the candidates based on the percentage of those tests that each candidate passed:

Name# Similar in HallSim Elig?>50%Win Shares> HOF Avg (337)% Passed
Jim Abbott09No86No0%
Bert Blyleven810Yes339Yes83%
Wade Boggs67Yes394Yes83%
Tom Candiotti09No158No0%
Dave Concepcion38No269No17%
Chili Davis18No285No0%
Andre Dawson58Yes340Yes67%
Steve Garvey15No279No17%
Rich Gossage210No223No17%
Tommy John710Yes289No33%
Mark Langston08No184No0%
Don Mattingly27No263No17%
Jack McDowell06No122No0%
Willie McGee010No224No0%
Jeff Montgomery04No134No0%
Jack Morris68Yes225No50%
Dale Murphy18No294No50%
Otis Nixon110No127No0%
Dave Parker28No327No33%
Tony Phillips18No268No0%
Jim Rice46No282No50%
Ryne Sandberg15No346Yes33%
Lee Smith15No198No17%
Terry Steinbach010No173No0%
Darryl Strawberry11Yes252No17%
Bruce Sutter04No168No0%
Alan Trammell15No318No17%
And the rest…
Jeff Blauser07No154No0%
Brian McRae010No132No0%
Jeff King06No115No0%
Mike Macfarlane06No106No0%
Mark Portugal06No100No0%

Boggs and Blyleven got the highest marks passing five of six tests. Dawson, Morris, Murphy, and Rice all passed at least half of them. Besides Boggs, Strawberry is the only new candidate who passes at least one test.

All of this leads me to my final assessment. As a point of reference, I have included the voting percentage for each candidate over the last three years and the all-time high for each:

Name2002 HOF%2003 HoF%2004 HoF%High?Verdict
Jim AbbottDropped by BBWAA
Bert Blyleven26.2729.2335.38%35.38%Veterans' Committee unless gathers steam
Wade Boggs2005 inductee
Tom CandiottiDropped by BBWAA
Dave Concepcion11.8610.2811.26%16.91%Veterans' Committee
Chili DavisDropped by BBWAA
Andre Dawson45.3450.0050.00%50.00%Not in 2005, maybe within 5 years
Steve Garvey28.3927.8224.31%42.61%Veterans' Committee
Rich Gossage43.0142.1440.71%44.27%Not in 2004, maybe someday but treading water
Tommy John26.9123.3921.94%28.35%Veterans' Committee
Mark LangstonDropped by BBWAA
Don Mattingly20.3413.7112.85%28.16%Veterans' Committee
Jack McDowellDropped by BBWAA
Willie McGeeDropped by BBWAA
Jeff MontgomeryDropped by BBWAA
Jack Morris20.5522.7826.28%26.28%Veterans' Committee
Dale Murphy14.8311.698.50%23.25%Veterans' Committee; Dropped by BBWAA in 2005
Otis NixonDropped by BBWAA
Dave Parker13.9810.2810.47%24.52%Veterans' Committee
Tony PhillipsDropped by BBWAA
Jim Rice55.0852.2254.55%57.86%Not in 2005, maybe someday but treading water
Ryne Sandberg 49.2061.07%61.07%2005 inductee
Lee Smith 42.3436.56%42.34%Veterans' Committee
Terry SteinbachDropped by BBWAA
Darryl StrawberryWill remain on ballot at least one more year
Bruce Sutter50.4253.6359.49%59.49%2005 or '06 inductee
Alan Trammell15.6814.1113.83%15.68%Veterans' Committee


There's one more thing that bodes well for this year's class. As I mentioned previously, this is one of the smallest ballots of all time. Let's take a look at how the smaller pools have faired in the past. Here are the ten smallest:

Class# on Ballot# Inducted% Inducted
19981815.56%
19972414.17%
198427311.11%
19872827.14%
199928310.71%
20022813.57%
20003026.67%
19763226.25%
20013226.25%
20043226.25%

That's an average of 6.81% inducted in these classes as compared to 2.85% as an overall average, or about three times the average. Of the ten years in which the writers failed to select a single player, none had fewer than 35 men on the ballot and just one had fewer than 47. Also, of the 14 seasons in which the writers selected at least 6% of the available candidates, eight were from ballots of 33 or fewer.

So maybe this is the year that the writers start to whittle down the list of those in baseball's purgatory, the players who never amass enough votes to gain election but earn enough to remain on the ballot year after year. I'm hoping that writers feel Sandberg has completed his penance for not playing the bulk of his career during the offensive surge of the last eleven or so seasons. Maybe they will take Sandberg and spot him a buddy, perhaps Bruce Sutter. Dare I dream that Blyleven even has a shot? No, I daren't.

Anyway, of the new candidates, I doubt that more than one or two will remain on the ballot next year. I don't think that a small class will help the likes of Steinbach and Montgomery.

Just a few more Hall-related items: Let's take a look at last year's candidate pool and review my predictions for each. First the pertinent criteria as in the lists above:

Name% Passed2002 HOF%2003 HoF%2004 HoF%High?
Bert Blyleven83.33%26.2729.2335.38%35.38%
Joe Carter0.00% 3.75%3.75%
Dave Concepcion16.67%11.8610.2811.26%16.91%
Danny Darwin0.00% 0.00%0.00%
Andre Dawson66.67%45.345050.00%50.00%
Doug Drabek0.00% 0.40%0.40%
Dennis Eckersley33.33% 83.20%83.20%
Jim Eisenreich0.00% 0.59%0.59%
Cecil Fielder0.00% 0.20%0.20%
Steve Garvey16.67%28.3927.8224.31%42.61%
Rich Gossage16.67%43.0142.1440.71%44.27%
Keith Hernandez16.67%6.146.054.35%10.40%
Tommy John50.00%26.9123.3921.94%28.35%
Jimmy Key0.00% 0.59%0.59%
Dennis Martinez0.00% 3.16%3.16%
Don Mattingly16.67%20.3413.7112.85%28.16%
Kevin Mitchell0.00% 0.40%0.40%
Paul Molitor83.33% 85.18%85.18%
Jack Morris50.00%20.5522.7826.28%26.28%
Dale Murphy66.67%14.8311.698.50%23.25%
Randy Myers0.00% 0.20%0.20%
Dave Parker50.00%13.9810.2810.47%24.52%
Terry Pendleton0.00% 0.20%0.20%
Jim Rice50.00%55.0852.2254.55%57.86%
Juan Samuel0.00% 0.40%0.40%
Ryne Sandberg33.33% 49.261.07%61.07%
Lee Smith16.67% 42.3436.56%42.34%
Dave Stieb0.00% 1.38%1.38%
Bruce Sutter0.00%50.4253.6359.49%59.49%
Bob Tewksbury0.00% 0.00%0.00%
Alan Trammell33.33%15.6814.1113.83%15.68%
Fernando Valenzuela0.00% 6.253.75%6.25%

Now, the predictions and the actual results:

NameVerdictResult
Bert BlylevenVeterans' Committee unless gathers steamRemained on ballot
Joe CarterUnlikelyDropped
Dave ConcepcionVeterans' CommitteeRemained on ballot
Danny DarwinDroppedDropped
Andre DawsonNot in 2004, maybe within 5 yearsRemained on ballot
Doug DrabekDroppedDropped
Dennis Eckersley2004 inductee2004 inductee
Jim EisenreichDroppedDropped
Cecil FielderDroppedDropped
Steve GarveyVeterans' CommitteeRemained on ballot
Rich GossageNot in 2004, maybe someday but treading waterRemained on ballot
Keith HernandezUnlikely, possibly droppedDropped
Tommy JohnVeterans' CommitteeRemained on ballot
Jimmy KeyDroppedDropped
Dennis MartinezUnlikelyDropped
Don MattinglyVeterans' CommitteeRemained on ballot
Kevin MitchellDroppedDropped
Paul Molitor2004 inductee2004 inductee
Jack MorrisVeterans' CommitteeRemained on ballot
Dale MurphyVeterans' CommitteeRemained on ballot
Randy MyersDroppedDropped
Dave ParkerVeterans' CommitteeRemained on ballot
Terry PendletonDroppedDropped
Jim RiceNot in 2004, maybe someday but treading waterRemained on ballot
Juan SamuelDroppedDropped
Ryne Sandberg2004 or 2005 inducteeRemained on ballot
Lee SmithNot in 2004, maybe somedayRemained on ballot
Dave StiebDroppedDropped
Bruce SutterNot in 2004, slowly growing base but running out of timeRemained on ballot
Bob TewksburyDroppedDropped
Alan TrammellVeterans' CommitteeRemained on ballot
Fernando ValenzuelaUnlikely; probably droppedDropped

I did get Eckersley and Molitor right and still may be right about Sandberg. The one thing that surprises me is that I predicted a few more of the new candidates in 2004 would at least stick around on the ballot, but none did. Maybe that's why I'm being so hard on this year's new guys.

Finally, here are the career Win Shares leaders for those players not already in the Hall of Fame, including active and not-yet-Hall-eligible players. I have included all players with at least 250 career Win Shares plus those active players with at least 200. It's a long list, but you can suffer through it:

PlayerWinSharesFinal YrEligible?
Barry Bonds6642004No
Pete Rose5471986No--banned
Rickey Henderson5352003No
Cal Ripken Jr.4272001No
Tony Mullane3991894Yes
Tony Gwynn3982001No
Roger Clemens3982004No
Craig Biggio3952004No
Bill Dahlen3941911Yes
Wade Boggs3941999On Ballot
Tim Raines3902002No
Jeff Bagwell3852004No
Rafael Palmeiro3842004No
Roberto Alomar3762004No
Gary Sheffield3682004No
Darrell Evans3631989Yes
Frank Thomas3592004No
Greg Maddux3592004No
Rusty Staub3581985Yes
Sherry Magee3541919Yes
Lou Whitaker3511995Yes
Dwight Evans3471991Yes
Ryne Sandberg3461997On Ballot
Barry Larkin3462004No
George Van Haltren3441903Yes
Mark McGwire3432001No
Dick Allen3421977Yes
Fred McGriff3412004No
Andre Dawson3411996On Ballot
Bert Blyleven3391992On Ballot
Jimmy Sheckard3391913Yes
Ken Griffey Jr.3392004No
Bob Caruthers3371893Yes
Jim McCormick3341887Yes
Will Clark3312000No
Bobby Grich3291986Yes
Tommy Leach3281918Yes
Dave Parker3271991On Ballot
Reggie Smith3251982Yes
Ron Santo3241974Yes
Willie Davis3221979Yes
Graig Nettles3211988Yes
Vada Pinson3211975Yes
Alan Trammell3181996On Ballot
Jack Clark3161992Yes
Jimmy Ryan3161903Yes
Stan Hack3161947Yes
Joe Torre3151977Yes
Norm Cash3151974Yes
Ted Simmons3151988Yes
Jose Cruz3131988Yes
Willie Randolph3121992Yes
Keith Hernandez3111990Yes
Sammy Sosa3092004No
Harold Baines3072001No
Al Oliver3051985Yes
Jimmy Wynn3051977Yes
Edgar Martinez3052004No
Bobby Bonds3021981Yes
Ken Singleton3021984Yes
Buddy Bell3011989Yes
Brian Downing2981992Yes
Frank Howard2971973Yes
Mike Piazza2972004No
Larry Walker2972004No
Cesar Cedeno2961986Yes
Mickey Vernon2961960Yes
Brett Butler2951997Yes
Dale Murphy2941993Yes
Joe Jackson2941920No--banned
Kid Gleason2941912Yes
Mark Grace2942003No
John Olerud2942004No
Dave Foutz2921896Yes
Bernie Williams2922004No
Fielder Jones2901915Yes
George Burns2901925Yes
Larry Doyle2891920Yes
Tommy John2891989On Ballot
Bob Elliott2871953Yes
Bob Johnson2871945Yes
Ed Konetchy2871921Yes
Jack Powell2871912Yes
Jack Quinn2871933Yes
Toby Harrah2871986Yes
Amos Otis2861984Yes
Randy Johnson2862004No
Chili Davis2851999On Ballot
Elmer Smith2851901Yes
Jack Stivetts2851899Yes
Charlie Buffinton2831892Yes
Minnie Minoso2831980Yes
Sal Bando2831981Yes
Boog Powell2821977Yes
Jim Rice2821989On Ballot
Steve Finley2812004No
Alex Rodriguez2812004No
Bert Campaneris2801983Yes
Fred Lynn2801990Yes
Ron Cey2801987Yes
Tony Fernandez2802001No
Ken Boyer2791969Yes
Steve Garvey2791987On Ballot
Dixie Walker2781949Yes
Lave Cross2781907Yes
Jim Thome2782004No
Bobby Murcer2771983Yes
Tom Glavine2762004No
Manny Ramirez2762004No
Jim Whitney2751890Yes
Adonis Terry2731897Yes
Rocky Colavito2731968Yes
Cy Seymour2721913Yes
Heinie Groh2721927Yes
Jose Canseco2722001No
Robin Ventura2722004No
Joe Judge2701934Yes
Dave Concepcion2691988On Ballot
George Foster2691986Yes
Ron Fairly2691978Yes
Jim Kaat2681983Yes
Tony Phillips2681999On Ballot
Julio Franco2682004No
Bill Freehan2671976Yes
Bobby Bonilla2672001No
Eddie Yost2671962Yes
Luis Gonzalez2672004No
Clyde Milan2661922Yes
Wilbur Cooper2661926Yes
Bobby Veach2651925Yes
Chet Lemon2651990Yes
Harry Stovey2651893Yes
Herman Long2651904Yes
Vern Stephens2651955Yes
Augie Galan2631949Yes
Don Mattingly2631995On Ballot
Gil Hodges2631963Yes
Jake Daubert2631924Yes
Roy White2631979Yes
Silver King2631897Yes
Don Baylor2621988Yes
Chipper Jones2622004No
Ivan Rodriguez2622004No
Jack Glasscock2611895Yes
Jim Fregosi2611978Yes
Ellis Burks2602004No
Roy Thomas2601911Yes
Guy Hecker2591890Yes
Ken Griffey Sr.2591991Yes
Paul O'Neill2592001No
Bucky Walters2581950Yes
Buddy Myer2581941Yes
Gus Weyhing2581901Yes
Larry Gardner2581924Yes
Rick Monday2581984Yes
Gary Matthews2571987Yes
Carl Mays2561929Yes
Luis Tiant2561982Yes
George Mullin2551915Yes
Dummy Hoy2541902Yes
Maury Wills2531972Yes
Wally Joyner2532001No
Darryl Strawberry2521999On Ballot
Dick Bartell2521946Yes
Andres Galarraga2512004No
Mike Tiernan2511899Yes
George Gore2501892Yes
Marquis Grissom2502004No
Kenny Lofton2472004No
Kevin Brown2412004No
Jim Edmonds2412004No
Jason Giambi2362004No
Moises Alou2352004No
Juan Gonzalez2342004No
John Smoltz2342004No
Tim Salmon2292004No
Ray Lankford2272004No
Pedro Martinez2252004No
Mike Mussina2242004No
Curt Schilling2242004No
Ruben Sierra2212004No
Derek Jeter2192004No
Scott Rolen2142004No
Carlos Delgado2122004No
Tino Martinez2092004No
Omar Vizquel2092004No
Ryan Klesko2092004No
Bret Boone2032004No
Edgardo Alfonzo2022004No
Bobby Abreu2022004No
Out Voted, The ROY (and I Don't Mean Hobbs) Edition, Cont.
2004-11-30 01:02
by Mike Carminati

Parts I, II, III, IV, V, and VI

I have one last note on the ridiculousness of the Rookie of the Year eligibility rules. Since they were instituted in 1971, there have been five players who exceed the eligibility thresholds have received votes. One was this year.

Here's the list:

NameYrABIPROY PtsROY Max
Tom Henke1985 60.05140
Greg Mathews1987145.31120
Mark Whiten1991176 2140
Bobby Jones1994 61.73140
Nate Robertson200453.01140

Nate Robertson was this year. Greg Mathews received one vote in 1987 after winning 11 games in 1986. And they barred Lew Ford. Disgraceful.

Out Voted, The ROY (and I Don't Mean Hobbs) Edition
2004-11-29 12:43
by Mike Carminati

Parts I, II, III, IV, and V

Next in our review of the most overlooked players in award-voting history is Rookie of the Year. The ROY award was by far the most complicated study and comes with the most caveats.

What is a rookie after all?

The current eligibility rules are that the player enters the given year with fewer than 130 career at-bats, 50 career innings pitched, and forty-five days of major-league experience. These were set forth in 1971. This year, Lew Ford met the first two but not the third. The problem is that you have to work in the commissioner's office to be able to calculate major-league experience; the other two are readily available. I was unable to find the rules prior to 1971 but will continue scanning my old TSN Baseball Guides.

The ROY, like the Cy Young, was at first just given out to one player in the entire majors. In 1947 and '48 only one Rookie of the Year per year was awarded. From 1949 on, each league has its own ROY winner.

For this study, I will base eligibility on the first two criteria above (<130 ABs and <50 IP). I will lump all players together for 1947-48 and separate them by league for every year since. This will mean that players who were not considered eligible at the time (like Ford) will be included in the list, and I'm fine with that. I think that it demonstrates how esoteric and meaningless the third rule (i.e., fewer than 45 days on a major-league roster) is.

So without further ado here's the list:

NameYrLgWin SharesTot WSRank
Billy Grabarkewitz1970NL2929.101
Al Rosen1950AL2929.001
Joe Ferguson1973NL2929.001
Vada Pinson1959NL2726.901
Reggie Jackson1968AL2525.201
Max Alvis1963AL2524.603
Ralph Garr1971NL2524.501
Bobby Grich1972AL2323.002
Rich Rollins1962AL2322.602
Dusty Baker1972NL2322.601
Ruppert Jones1977AL2222.502
Lew Ford2004AL2222.001
Joe Foy1966AL2221.902
Irv Noren1950AL2221.702
Stan Rojek1948NL2121.103
Ed Charles1962AL2120.903
Bob Lee1964AL2020.102
Luke Easter1950AL2019.904
Bobby Murcer1969AL2019.802
Willie Horton1965AL2019.702
Bobby Thomson1947NL2019.703
Richie Hebner1969NL2019.601
Dan Quisenberry1980AL1919.403
Walt Moryn1956NL1918.902
Terry Forster1972AL1918.803
Davey Williams1952NL1918.603
Randy Milligan1989AL1918.602
Andy Carey1954AL1818.402
Larry Doby1948AL1818.405
Craig Biggio1989NL1818.301
Earl Torgeson1947NL1818.305
Ron Guidry1977AL1818.106
Tom Brunansky1982AL1818.102
Bobby Darwin1972AL1818.004
Sam Bowens1964AL1817.504
Ned Garver1948AL1817.506
Solly Hemus1951NL1717.402
Mike Marshall1983NL1717.304
Don Lenhardt1950AL1717.205
Dale Long1955NL1717.201
Dick Tidrow1972AL1717.005
Mike Lansing1993NL1716.903
Willie Randolph1976AL1716.803
Don Blasingame1956NL1716.603
Dennis Eckersley1975AL1716.603
Ken McBride1961AL1716.405
Tom Haller1962NL1616.401
Burt Hooton1972NL1616.403
Bob Chesnes1948NL1616.407
Rick Reichardt1966AL1616.203
Mike Andrews1967AL1616.203
Greg Luzinski1972NL1616.204
Mike Fiore1969AL1616.103
Pete Incaviglia1986AL1616.104
Wayne Comer1969AL1616.004
Jerry Walker1959AL1615.90
Jim Owens1959NL1615.902
Marv Breeding1960AL1615.903
Tony Conigliaro1964AL1615.805
Sammy Ellis1964NL1615.804
Wayne Gross1977AL1615.807
Dwayne Murphy1979AL1615.801
Spider Jorgensen1947NL1615.807
Billy Loes1952NL1615.705
Al Downing1963AL1615.705
Rick Monday1967AL1615.704
Nate Colbert1969NL1615.704
Chris Speier1971NL1615.704
Marty Barrett1984AL1615.705
John Rocker1999NL1615.703
Monte Irvin1950NL1615.602
Bill White1956NL1615.604
Norm Cash1960AL1615.604
Pat Kelly1969AL1615.506
Matt Young1983AL1615.503
Roberto Kelly1989AL1615.504
Dale Mitchell1947AL1615.508

I'm sorry it's so long but I wanted to include all of the overlooked rookies who actually finished first in their leagues in Win Shares (i.e., Rank).

By the way, here are the men who actually won in those years:

YrLgNameWin SharesTot WSRank
1950ALWalt Dropo2121.203
1955NLBill Virdon1414.102
1959NLWillie McCovey1212.105
1962NLKen Hubbs98.5012
1968ALStan Bahnsen2322.802
1969NLTed Sizemore1717.203
1970NLCarl Morton2120.903
1971NLEarl Williams1918.603
1972NLJon Matlack2221.702
1973NLGary Matthews2121.002
1979ALAlfredo Griffin1414.003
1979ALJohn Castino99.3012
1989NLJerome Walton1717.002
2004ALBobby Crosby1313.002

As a Phils fan, I have to love that Richie "The Hack" Hebner was ignored the year that Teddy Sizemore won the award. One can understand why the voters select, say, Willie McCovey, but someone has to explain to me how John Castino got a share of the award in 1979.

If one were to list these overlooked players by year, the result would be, as with the Cy Young, that large numbers of overlooked players occurred when the award was shared between the two leagues (four per year in 1947-48). However, early voting was lackluster at best overall (four overlooked in the AL in 1950 and three in the NL in 1956).

It seems that the new rules were instituted in 1971 because so many questionable candidates were getting the award and so many qualified ones were either overlooked or ineligible. In 1968 Reggie Jackson was completed ignored in favor of Stan Bahnsen, "The Bahnsen Burner", who quickly burned out his arm. (The Senators' Del Unser, later a teammate of Bahnsen in Montreal, was the only other candidate to receive a vote.) From 1968 to 1973 there was one "eligible" rookie that was overlooked but had more Win Shares than the actual award winner (i.e., eligible by my rules).

Since 1973 only three players have been overlooked/ineligible with more Win Shares than the award winner. One was Ford. The other two were Dwayne Murphy (1979) and Craig Biggio (1989) and both played at least 45 games the previous season even though they met the at-bat cutoff. Since 1990 only three players have made the list: Ford, Mike Lansing (1993), and John Rocker (1999). Rocker pitched in 47 games (38 innings) in 1998. In the 1993 NL voting, eleven players received votes (including Pedro Martinez, Carlos Guillen, Jeff Conine, Kirk Rueter, and Ricky Gutierrez) and Mike Piazza swept the first-place votes, but Lansing, then a third baseman with no pop who had not played a major-league game before the season started, was completely ignored.

I decided not to eliminate those players who had appeared in at least 45 games prior to their "rookie" season. They clearly did not pass the experience criterion, but I think it’s the silliest of the three rules. I mean, 130 at-bats and 50 innings pitched are pretty arbitrary numbers (especially for relievers as opposed to starters), but at least they are reasonable. I see no reason why Dwayne Murphy should have been ineligible in 1979 because the A's decided to use him in 60 games in 1978 as defensive replacement in the outfield and pinch-runner. He only had 52 at-bats for the season. I think these rules were outdated before the print dried in 1971.

I understand the need to set up some objective rule to determine rookie eligibility. I just think that Lew Ford, who had all of 73 major-league at-bats entering the 2004 season, shouldn't have to pay for it. I would prefer something closer to though not as stringent as the batting/ERA title eligibility rules. Let's say that a player becomes ineligible once he has accumulated at least 251 plate appearances. That is based on the batting title's 3.1 plate appearances per game and 81 games or half of a season. For pitchers, 81 innings or one per game based on half a season (that is for starting pitchers—relievers would be limited to something like 30 innings). I would eliminate the experience threshold altogether. Who cares how many days a player sat on a major-league bench?

Another alternative would be to keep the current criteria but extend the player's eligibility for another year should he receive no votes in the ROY voting. That would enable players like Ford, who met the criteria but clearly did get enough exposure to merit consideration, to have another chance. Throw 'em back—they're not big enough yet. Maybe the criteria that I outlined would be the ceiling for the players thrown back so that those players who just plain stunk their rookie year don't get another chance the next year.

Anyway, the last entry in this series will be study of how well the voters have done over the years based on Win Shares. I want to look not only at the high-profile cases where Mo Vaughn and Juan Gonzalez stole the MVP from Alex Rodriguez. I want to see how closely all the seedings match reality. For instance, someone has to explain to me how Bobby Abreu finished with three points in this year's NL MVP vote but J.D. Drew had 114 and finished in sixth place. If you say it's because the Braves, and not the Phils, won the NL East (an argument I find silly anyway), then explain to me how fellow Phils Jim Thome finished ahead of Abreu after Abreu had a markedly better season than Thome. It must be those 12 extra home runs (42 for Thome and 30 for Abreu). Then explain to me how Todd Helton and Juan Pierre both ended up with nine votes. Then there are the five points that were all that Melvin Mora received in the AL vote. At least he finished ahead of Chone Figgins. But I digress.

I'd like to look at how closely the voting totals per award reflect reality and how that relationship, or lack thereof, has changed over time.

Miller Crossing
2004-11-28 00:09
by Mike Carminati

Sheez, I post a fluff piece to pass off some research on the novelty of Damian Miller playing in Miller Park as an analysis of his career, and people actually hold me to it.

Well, I think the most interesting thing in the Miller signing is how it affects the A's. The Miller signing itself was somewhat ho-hum. I think my quickie analysis showed that Miller was one of the better catchers in baseball basically because of his defense as opposed to his just-average offense.

The one thing I did question was the wisdom of locking up a 35-year-old catcher for three years (though only two guaranteed). So how risky is that, in general?

Since Miller just turned 35 in October, I looked for all of the 34-year-old starting catchers in baseball history (minimum of 80 games behind the plate). Then I tried to determine how effective those catchers would be over the next three years. I averaged the games played and OPS for those players for any years that they were active. I prorated the total Win Shares over three years, even if the player was not active for those years. The reason for this was to determine the player's worth to his team over three years (ergo Win Shares), but the other stats totals only made sense as an average. (Note that Brent Mayne, who was 34 in 2002, and Brad Ausmus and Dan Wilson, who were 34 in 2003, are not penalized for the years that they have yet to play: their Win Shares are averaged over the years yet far that they have been active). Then I took the difference between their Win Share total in their 34th year and compared it to their 35-37 average. I ranked them by the difference:

34-year-old catchers34th yr3-yr avg
NameYrGOPSWSGOPSWSWS Diff
Chad Kreuter1999101.627365.75774
Benito Santiago1999107.6917116.716103
Ernie Whitt1986129.77413130.770163
Birdie Tebbetts1947109.6239110.761123
Deacon McGuire189893.633887.720102
Walker Cooper1949117.74413109.796152
Carlton Fisk1982133.74019131.813201
Brent Mayne200299.619598.61461
Charlie Bennett188982.624865.66080
Dan Wilson200396.6117103.61570
Spud Davis193985.740678.73560
Rick Cerone198883.686780.6986-1
Rollie Hemsley194196.614670.5835-1
Billy Sullivan190997.400458.5113-1
Rick Ferrell194099.705998.6288-1
Rick Dempsey1984108.67610105.6688-2
Luke Sewell1935112.69412105.63610-2
Oscar Stanage191795.522557.5923-2
Paul Richards1943100.6041178.6269-2
Smoky Burgess196192.8511390.74610-3
Bob Boone1982143.64713144.5899-4
Mickey Owen195086.591458.5240-4
Heinie Peitz190587.548540.6251-4
Sandy Alomar Jr.200095.728878.6784-4
Tony Pena1991140.6129100.6235-4
Jim Hegan1955111.632983.6135-4
Steve Yeager1983112.635759.5503-4
Alan Ashby1986103.7051173.6567-4
Darrin Fletcher2001129.628545.5771-4
Ron Hodges198396.691664.6151-5
Chief Meyers191596.6221076.6215-5
Ernie Lombardi194285.88616112.77911-5
Walter Schmidt1921111.6281065.6415-5
Frank Gibson192586.715742.6522-5
Jim Sundberg1985112.6891188.6626-5
Johnny Roseboro1967107.7231399.6488-5
Buck Martinez198385.790975.5814-5
Claude Berry1914122.6248100.5162-6
Ellie Hendricks197583.696826.8012-6
Wally Schang1924108.8091691.80910-6
Brad Ausmus2003143.59412129.6316-6
Gabby Hartnett1935110.94926106.86720-6
Gary Carter1988119.6591281.6476-6
Bill Dickey1941104.7881784.83510-7
Clyde McCullough195187.8061058.6703-7
Phil Masi1950114.7561157.7083-8
Al Lopez1943116.6591487.6306-8
Don Slaught1993105.7961462.7416-8
Ray Mueller1946100.6951258.6254-8
Roy Campanella1956121.72712103.7034-8
Terry Steinbach1996137.87118116.72110-8
Johnny Edwards1972105.7321265.6393-9
Terry Kennedy1990103.7121069.6221-9
Mike Heath1989117.6971186.6072-9
Aaron Robinson1949108.8251585.6926-9
Andy Seminick195593.7291134.4751-10
Bubbles Hargrave192792.7631355.7123-10
Chief Zimmer189584.8841764.6977-10
George Gibson1915118.6491124.8191-10
Yogi Berra1959116.80923108.75713-10
Elston Howard1963132.86928129.70717-11
Sherm Lollar1959122.79623110.71412-11
Bo Diaz1987137.7221568.5422-13
Lance Parrish1990131.7892474.7067-17
Average107.7041182.6707-5

Of the 64 catchers on the list, just 11 witnessed either an improvement or at least no decline in their Win Share total. A number were fairly recent players, so maybe the trend is becoming less pronounced, but most catchers declined by an average of 5 Win Shares (from 11 to 9 in year one—2 WS—, to 7 in year two—4 WS—, and then to 6 in year three).

More significantly, those catchers played an average of just 82 games, or 25 fewer than in their 34th year, and that ignores those player-years when the players were inactive/retired. If you add in those years, the players averaged just 73 games.

So is three mil a year a bit steep to pay for what amounts to a bad gamble? I would think so, at least for the Brewers where that would constitute about ten percent of their 2004 payroll. Even so, Miller will probably be a major upgrade over the Chad Moeller and Gary Bennett rotation that the Brewers employed last season. The more's the pity.

Pass Me a Miller, Bud
2004-11-24 22:05
by Mike Carminati

The Brewers are set to sign Damian Miller to an exorbitant contract (3 years, $8.75 M) apparently so that they can have an on-field Miller ad, as if the stadium signs weren't enough:

"Miller playing at Miller Park was too tough to pass up," Miller's agent Bob Garber said.

On the surface it actually doesn't look like a bad deal. Miller was third in Win Shares among starting catchers last year (min. 81 games at catcher). That is, even though his OPS was 14th among the 25 catchers who qualified and slightly below average for the group. Even so, Miller's per-season salary will be less than average for the group:

NameTmOPS Salary AgeWin Shares
Jason KendallPIT.789 $8,571,429.00 3025
Ivan RodriguezDET.893 $7,000,000.00 3222
Paul Lo DucaLA-FLA.758 $4,066,667.00 3221
Damian MillerOAK.742 $3,000,000.00 3421
Jorge PosadaNYY.881 $9,000,000.00 3220
Victor MartinezCLE.851 $ 304,500.00 2520
Javy LopezBAL.872 $6,000,000.00 3319
Johnny EstradaATL.828 $ 312,500.00 2819
Jason VaritekBOS.872 $6,900,000.00 3217
Brian SchneiderMON.724 $ 350,000.00 2717
Michael BarrettCHN.826 $1,550,000.00 2715
Jason LaRueCIN.765 $2,600,000.00 3015
Ramon HernandezSD.818 $2,937,500.00 2814
A.J. PierzynskiSF.729 $3,500,000.00 2713
Ben MolinaANA.717 $2,025,000.00 2911
Mike MathenyStL.640 $4,000,000.00 3310
Mike LieberthalPHI.783 $7,500,000.00 329
Toby HallTB.666 $ 320,000.00 289
Rod BarajasTEX.728 $ 500,000.00 288
Charles JohnsonCOL.780 $9,000,000.00 327
Dan WilsonSEA.615 $3,500,000.00 357
Brad AusmusHOU.631 $1,000,000.00 356
Jason PhillipsNYM.624 $ 318,000.00 275
Henry BlancoMIN.628 $ 750,000.00 324
Chad MoellerMIL.568 $ 370,000.00 292
Avg.749 $3,415,023.84 30.313.4

Miller is, however, one of the older starting catchers in baseball. He'll be 37 when the contract expires. That's ancient for a catcher, and he doesn't hit enough to play first. And as a catcher ages, he can go from an average hitter to a poor one extremely quickly (witness Charles Johnson, Mike Lieberthal, and Dan Wilson above). I just think it's a poor gamble but those are the kind that the Brewers make.

As for the novelty of Miller playing at Miller Park, it's not the first time a player's last name has appeared in his home park's name (though some are cheating, e.g.,Jim Field?), and I don't mean Arthur 3Com, who never made it out of training camp with the Giants a few years back:

YrTmPlayerPark
1890Rochester BroncosJim FieldCulver Field I
1898Washington SenatorsJim FieldBoundary Field
1910Boston Red SoxBen HuntHuntington Avenue Grounds
1912Washington SenatorsClark GriffithGriffith Stadium I
1913Washington SenatorsClark GriffithGriffith Stadium I
1914Washington SenatorsClark GriffithGriffith Stadium I
1915St. Louis BrownsJim ParkSportsman's Park IV
1916St. Louis BrownsJim ParkSportsman's Park IV
1917St. Louis BrownsJim ParkSportsman's Park IV
1924Washington SenatorsBert GriffithGriffith Stadium I
1989San Diego PadresDan MurphyJack Murphy Stadium
1993Seattle MarinersKevin KingKingdome
1994Seattle MarinersKevin KingKingdome
1995Seattle MarinersKevin KingKingdome
2002San Francisco GiantsDavid BellPacBell Park
2002Texas RangersChan Ho ParkThe Ballpark at Arlington
2003Texas RangersChan Ho ParkThe Ballpark at Arlington
2004Texas RangersChan Ho ParkThe Ballpark at Arlington

Now, that is the height of triviality.

Out Voted, Continued
2004-11-24 13:24
by Mike Carminati

Parts I, II, III, and IV

Next in our pursuit of the most egregiously overlooked players in baseball award history is the Cy Yoing award.

The Cy Young is not as straight-forward as the MVP vote even though it's only been in existence for just under fifty years. The difficulty arises with a couple of voting rules for the award.

First, when the award was first created (1956) it was for the best pitcher in the major leagues, not in each league as it is today. It wasn't until 1967 that a Cy Young was given out in each league. This allowed a number of candidates to slip through the cracks.

The other eccentricity was that the voters selected just one candidate for the first 15 years of the awards existence. Essentially, it would be like lopping off the second- and third-place votes from today's ballots. Initially, multiple candidates would still split the vote. However, as the mid-Sixties witnessed the domination of Sandy Koufax, fewer candidates were even considered. Koufax was the only man in the majors to receive a vote in 1963, 1965, and 1966. Perhaps that was the reason they split the award up per league: so that an American Leaguer would have a chance. However, in 1968 in both leagues only one candidate received votes (Bob Gibson in the NL and Denny McLain in the AL).

Here's a table of the number of player performance that received Cy Young consideration for each decade in each league. Followed by the average number receiving votes per year per league for the decade (through 2004):

DecadeLgTot#YrsPer Yr
1950sMLB1343.25
1960sMLB1772.43
1960sAL732.33
1960sNL632.00
1970sAL83108.30
1970sNL84108.40
1980sAL79107.90
1980sNL74107.40
1990sAL71107.10
1990sNL70107.00
2000sAL3156.20
2000sNL3056.00

Note the number of candidates quadrupling in the Seventies? The numbers have actually been shrinking in each decade since. But the award will never return to the two-man average that the NL vote in the Seventies achieved. That is, unless they remove third place from the ballot.

This allowed boatloads of deserving candidates to be completely overlooked through the Sixties. In the study below you'll see that there were 12 candidates who would meet our criterion (24 Win Shares) in the National League in 1969 and yet just two (winner Tom Terrific Seaver and Phil Niekro) received any votes. Also, of the 44 overlooked pitchers in the study, only six have been since the ballot was expanded to include second- and third-place votes (and two of them were relievers).

OK, after that rambling preamble, let's off to the actual study. Below are the pitchers who had the best seasons during the Cy Young award era and yet received no notice, or at least no votes (based on a min. of 24 Win Shares. Note Rank is based on WS ranks in the majors for 1956-66 and within league since):

NameYrLgWin SharesTot WSPitch WSRankWLSV ERA
Juan Marichal1966NL3333.0032.3022560 2.23
Bob Gibson1969NL3332.8032.30120130 2.18
Dick Ellsworth1963NL3232.2032.20122100 2.11
Jim Bunning1966NL3030.2030.20319141 2.41
Juan Marichal1965NL3029.8029.80222131 2.13
Juan Marichal1969NL2928.7028.70321110 2.10
Luis Tiant1968AL2828.1028.1022190 1.60
Bill Hands1969NL2828.1028.10420140 2.49
Early Wynn1956AL2827.9027.5012092 2.72
Don Drysdale1965NL2727.4022.30323121 2.77
Jim Bunning1965NL2726.7026.7041990 2.60
Juan Marichal1963NL2626.4026.4032580 2.41
Don Drysdale1964NL2626.4026.40218160 2.18
Jim Bunning1957AL2626.3026.3012081 2.69
Jim Kaat1966AL2626.2026.20425130 2.75
Bill Singer1969NL2626.2026.20620121 2.34
Mel Stottlemyre1969AL2626.1026.10220140 2.82
Rich Gossage1977NL2626.0026.00411926 1.62
Bob Gibson1965NL2625.9024.30520121 3.07
Gaylord Perry1969NL2625.9025.90719140 2.49
Bob Gibson1966NL2625.7025.70521120 2.44
Dave McNally1968AL2625.6025.60322100 1.95
Claude Osteen1969NL2625.5025.50920150 2.66
Jerry Koosman1969NL2525.5025.5081790 2.28
Sam McDowell1965AL2525.4025.40617114 2.18
Larry Dierker1969NL2525.4025.401020130 2.33
Gary Peters1963AL2525.0023.0041981 2.33
Fergie Jenkins1968NL2525.0025.00220150 2.63
Herb Score1956AL2524.9024.9032090 2.53
Jon Matlack1978AL2524.9024.90415131 2.27
Johnny Antonelli1956NL2524.8024.80420131 2.86
Juan Marichal1964NL2524.7024.7042180 2.48
Joe Niekro1982NL2524.6024.60217120 2.47
Don Drysdale1960NL2524.5024.50215142 2.84
Dick Radatz1964AL2424.5024.50516929 2.29
Fergie Jenkins1969NL2524.5024.501121151 3.21
Dave Stieb1983AL2424.4024.40217120 3.04
Steve Carlton1969NL2424.3024.301217110 2.17
Bill Lee1973AL2424.3024.30617111 2.75
Juan Marichal1968NL2424.2024.2032690 2.43
Vern Law1959NL2424.1024.1011891 2.98
Ted Abernathy1967NL2424.1024.1026328 1.27
Whitey Ford1964AL2424.0024.0061761 2.13
Doug Corbett1980AL2424.0024.0028623 1.98

The last entry on the list was the ever-underrated Dave Stieb in 1983. The highest Win Share for an overlooked pitcher since was Tim Hudson's 23 Win Shares in 2002 (15-9, 2.98). I guess the paucity of 20-game winners has allowed voters to focus more on the best performances not just the most wins (John Kruk notwithstanding).

By the way, for the players ranked number one above here are the players who beat them for the award:

YrLgNameTot WSPitchWS
1956NLDon Newcombe26.6025.20
1957NLWarren Spahn21.5021.50
1959ALEarly Wynn22.8020.70
1963NLSandy Koufax32.1032.10
1969NLTom Seaver32.2032.20

Next, we'll look at Rookie of the Year, and that gets very complicated.

Out Voted
2004-11-23 23:44
by Mike Carminati

Parts I, II, and III

After taking a look at the worst award vote-getters of all time and thoroughly beating the dead horse into the ground while mixing my metaphors, my next pursuit in award voting eccentricities is to determine those players who were the most unjustly overlooked.

Which players were most overlooked for the MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year vote in the years that those awards were handed out? I'm not talking about A-Rod losing to Mo Vaughn or Juan Gonzalez. I mean, who are the guys who received absolutely no support while having great years?

Using Total Win Shares as the criterion, here are the best player years that were totally ignored by the voters. Let’s start first with the MVP award (30 WS min.):

NameYrLgWin SharesTot WSRank
Babe Ruth1926AL4545.201
Babe Ruth1928AL4544.901
Babe Ruth1924AL4544.601
Babe Ruth1927AL4544.501
Lou Gehrig1928AL4241.902
Walter Johnson1914AL3837.603
Arky Vaughan1936NL3535.504
Tris Speaker1923AL3535.402
Craig Biggio1996NL3232.406
Dick Allen1968NL3232.304
Jimmy Wynn1968NL3231.905
George Uhle1926AL3231.703
Craig Biggio1992NL3231.707
Bobby Bonds1970NL3231.604
Earle Combs1927AL3131.504
Mel Ott1933NL3131.304
Red Faber1922AL3131.001
Jimmy Wynn1965NL3131.006
Ryan Klesko2002NL3130.825
Goose Goslin1925AL3130.802
Wally Berger1931NL3130.601
Bobby Grich1976AL3130.502
Eddie Mathews1963NL3130.507
Joe Morgan1977NL3030.404
Robin Ventura1992AL3030.304
Jim Bunning1966NL3030.206
Julio Franco1989AL3030.004
Mickey Cochrane1932AL3030.007
Jim Edmonds2001NL3030.008
Orlando Cepeda1963NL3030.009
Sean Casey2004NL3030.0012
Ted Simmons1978NL3029.903
Ken Williams1922AL3029.802
Fernando Vina1998NL3029.807
Gary Sheffield2001NL3029.809
Paul Waner1929NL3029.805
Mitchell Page1977AL3029.604
Tris Speaker1922AL3029.603
Rusty Staub1970NL3029.605

It's not easy being the greatest player to play the game (apologies to Barry Bonds). Ruth's sole MVP award came in 1923, and he did not even receive a vote in four years in which he "led" the league in Win Shares. Rich Lederer reminds me that there was once a rule that barred past MVPs from the award. I'm not sure when that rule was enacted nor when it was reversed, but I would have to expect that Ruth was its main victim.

Below is a list of the players who won the award for the years in which the Win Share leader received no votes:

YrLgNameWin SharesTot WSRank
1926ALGeorge Burns2424.4012
1928ALMickey Cochrane2221.5020
1924ALWalter Johnson2929.403
1927ALLou Gehrig4444.102
1922ALGeorge Sisler2928.805
1931NLFrankie Frisch2121.3017

As for modern players, it seems that Craig Biggio is the new Ruth. At least his lack of votes in 1992 and 1996 was downright Ruthian.

Litmus Artest
2004-11-22 13:22
by Mike Carminati

A naked, once-hot Nicolette Sheridan jumps into bad boy Terrell Owens awaiting arms. This comes on the heels of a college player, Pittsburgh quarterback Tyler Palko, saying the Bono/Cheney word in a postgame interview.

Ron Artest and half the Indiana Pacers roster attempt to reenact a game of "Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas" with Bowie's "Panic in Detroit" as the soundtrack in Auburn Hills.

The National Hockey League is still dead. And now they won't even be drafting young players until and unless they have a CBA in place.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, baseball seems reconciled to missing sports sweeps week for scandals. Even with the ongoing Balco investigation belching up a morsel or two every so often, not much interest is being generated. I guess Barry Bonds continuing to amaze after the scandal sort of took the wind out of their sails.

What's happen to the national pastime's ability to offend? Where are the halcyon days of Robbie Alomar spitting in umpire John Hirschbeck's face? These overpaid millionaire players today aren't even trying. A 60-year-old war, as interpreted by Steven Spielberg, can now incite people's enmity more effectively than baseball.

Baseball missed out on all the hand-wringing and blame assessing that make the other sports so popular. Everyone who ever played an NFL game has now apologized for the towel incident. Never mind that the spot was as racy as the intro to "Petticoat Junction" and that a forty-something Sheridan in a towel is no longer Must See TV. Of course, another kind of "raciness" was really what piqued the public's ire especially for a game that was broadcast in good-ole-boy Texas.

As for me, I was offended by ABC's blatant cross-selling of the entertainment division by their sports division. I mean, Fox shuttles the cast of "That Seventies Show" to every sporting event they cover, but they don't make them part of the game (they reserve that for Budweiser's "Leon" and Jimmy Fallon).

I don't want to hear the argument that the cheerleaders are more revealing or that the in-game violence is more offensive. Don't worry: Michael Powell and the FCC is after them, too. We just need the go-ahead from a couple of nuts like the ones that held "Saving Private Ryan" hostage on Veterans Day to stir Powell and his crack squad into action. My mention of "Petticoat Junction" above already has the FCC investigating TV Land.

As for David Stern's outrage over the Artest incident, has he forgotten the Vernon Maxwell incident, which happened on his watch? Yes, Artest's actions were abhorrent, and yes, he should be fined. But shouldn't someone be looking into what was going on with Detroit's security enforcement that night. Did the guards leave the game early to beat traffic? Artest was hit with a Big Gulp of beer after all. He shouldn't have rushed into the crowd, but I didn't see any rent-a-cops tracking down the offending fan. Of course, given what hockey players have done to fans in the past should be remembered when trying to get perspective on the incident. Then again, those guys were white so their actions were not seen as an indictment of the all the players and the sport in general like in Artest's case. Some may argue that it is the SportsCenter affect: Maxwell got just a 10-game suspension while Artest will have to sit out the year (73 games) and in total 143 games will be lost for the players involved.

And I won't even go into why I don't care if a player uses off-color language in the excitement of winning a big game. Isn't it more interesting than another bobblehead thanking his maker?

In baseball, Jose Guillen gets shuttled to the new Nationals because of an on-field incident in Anaheim that would have seemed like a love-in for the crosstown Lakers last season. Barry Bonds endured a season in which threats that his batting records should be removed or asterisked because of steroid allegations and went on to have one of the greatest offensive seasons of all time. And players actually congratulated each other after the Dodgers lost to the Cardinals in the playoffs last year. Tanner Boyle must be rolling over in his wee little grave.

Where's Chad Kreuter when you need him anyway?

Collusion Made Easy
2004-11-22 13:21
by Mike Carminati

Don't know much about a player's history? Don't know much about his biology, er, injury history? Well, if you're a major-league GM, MLB now is providing you with the Cliffs Notes to ensure that you don't overpay.

So if you're Theo Epstein and you need help from the commissioner's office whenever you make a trade or you're Omar Minaya and you got "promoted" to the Mets for despoiling the Expos minor-league system, then this new aid is for you. Who cares if you are a fifty-year-old man who needs training wheels? You want to keep that cushy job at any cost.

Baseball calls it the Free Agent Advice Form. The "Handy Dandy Free Agent Advice Form" was just too long:

So if Scott Boras is bullying you into a 10-year, $200 M contract, all you have to do is write to Dear Abby, er, Buddy. All you need is to send in the player's name (including middle initials for any Bobby Joneses or Javier Lopi) and the contract length desired. You don't even need a self-addressed stamped envelope if you use your fax.

You get "date him"/"drop him" advice with an estimate of the player's value—"[Player's name] value would appear to be between $___ and $ ____". They have to do the math to determine if the figure they have in mind is between those two on their own, however. Then you get a list of "relevant comparables", however they might be determined, with their contract info. And if all that's not enough for our junior GM to arrive at a decision, you also receive at no extra cost a list of "Other Factors" such as age, injury history, etc. Ron Popeil would be proud. And if you act today, you get the Veg-O-Matic, a $50 value, absolutely free.

Why can't Eddie Wade read? Because daddy Bud does his homework for him.

But why come up with the form now after two offseasons in which accusations have been swirling? That's precisely the reason to come up with this form according to Jayson Stark. The paper trail will now act as a form of CYA (Cover Your Assets) for MLB. The thinking is that since everything will be out in the open—the players union has access to the forms—and fully documented, then MLB's obvious innocence from collusion will be apparent to all.

MLB Corporate wea..,er, labor-relations chief Rob Manfred basically says as much to Stark, "Our position is that nothing untoward has gone on. The union has been concerned about this, so we were prepared to do something to address their concerns." Whether anything toward has transpired was not addressed.

And if that's not enough, the Handy Dandy Form comes with keano whizbang disclaimers:

"Obviously the value of a free agent Player is ultimately determined by market forces, the most fundamental of which are supply of such Players and the demand for those Players. Moreover, the potential value of a free agent Player to one Club may be different from the same Player's value to another Club. Given this, the amount that your Club is willing to pay a free agent may appropriately differ from the value range supplied above…

"Moreover, this advice is strictly advisory and is intended to assist you in formulating contract offers that you deem appropriate. As has always been the case, advice from the Office of the Commissioner cannot interfere with a Club's obligation to act in its own individual interest in a free market. In fact, you are required to act in your individual interest in deciding what contract terms to offer a free agent player."

"Wink wink. Nudge nudge, say no more, say no more." If it's all so obvious, why include it on a one-page form? Because everyone needs a little legalese to indemnify oneself. Beware of forms bearing regular nouns in capital letters. Do You know what i mean? Where else is the word "Moreover" used except in documents drawn up by lawyers.

Of course, there's no collusion since the teams are "not permitted to share this advice" or that they even received advice via the Handy Dandy Form "with another Club"—note the caps: it's legalese. And of course the commissioner's office "will not disclose to any other Club [caps again] the fact that [they] provided this advice." That is, they won't any longer now that Bud's Brewers are being sold.

To quote Hildy and Buffy, "See, it's all perfectly normal."

Stark also refers to a Manfred-penned negotiating memo that MLB circulated to all the teams that prohibits clubs from "discuss[ing] negotiations, contract offers or even 'contemplated' offers with each other" this may include "using the media to circulate information about their contract offers to free agents". It also reiterates that the contract advice is only "upon a specific request from a club" and only on the top-secret advice form, and points out that teams are "not required to seek such advice" nor bound to follow it.

Moreover, it goes on to say that Happy Fun Ball should not be used as a flotation devise.

I see these moves as having three ultimate goals. First and foremost, to protect MLB against any sort of collusion settlement that was seen after the 1986-88 seasons. At least, they're more creative today than in Peter Ueberroth's days.

Second, they want to make sure that regular business, including reining in maverick teams who are doling out Amigo money on free agent contracts, is maintained.

Third, this was a wakeup call to the teams who rubberstamped the advice in the past and offered remarkably similar contracts to similar players. No good confidence game can be run when you have thirty partners who are such boobs.

I, frankly, dismissed the claims by players and agents that collusion was afoot in the past couple off seasons. I thought that the players unwisely signed an extremely lopsided Collective Bargaining Agreement that came with built-in "collusion", a soft salary cap, to which every team has adhered since (except the Yankees). So I disregarded the cries of collusion just like I dismissed the cries of fraud in the past presidential election. Of course, things happened, but you were a party to them. Besides, insurance companies no longer were covering the long-term contracts (over three years) that they had in the past further reducing contract length and thereby, releasing more players more quickly back in the free agent pool increasing supply and reducing demand.

However, methinks Bud dost protest too much this offseason. Going by the "where there's smoke, there's fire" theory, there is something as real at least as the last round of collusion afoot here. Manfred is blowing a whole lot of smoke up too many orifices for there not to be some fire down below. There has been too little salary growth since the last CBA was signed. Apparently, the owners got lazy (not coordinating offers more realistically) and greedy (ticking off too many and suppressing salaries too much). Rob "The Wolf" Manfred now must clean up their mess. Excuse him if he's curt.

The problem is that without an Andre Dawson-like lightning rod for the collusion zeitgeist, the charges may be hard to prove in the courts and in the ever-important court of public opinion, where all players are considered overpaid but no owner's salary is ever evaluated. And now the lawyers are swooping in for plausible deniability. The players may be better served by trying to gear up for the next CBA negotiations, an effort that may be better served with some changes at the top of the union.

The Charboneaus
2004-11-19 21:07
by Mike Carminati

Parts I and II

Next in our pursuit of the worst award vote-getters of all time are the Charboneaus, the worst Rookie of the Year candidates, or at least the ones that someone was foolish enough to vote for. Of course, it is named for Joe Charboneau, the Cleveland Indians slugger who set the bar for sophomore slumps.

Here are the worst ROY candidates by career Win Shares. You'll notice that this year's batch gets short shrift: everyone but Jason Bay and Khalil Greene is on the list:

NameYrPts1stMax PtsWin Shares
Shooty Babitt1981401403
John Buck2004101404
Bud Smith2001101605
Jeriome Robertson2003201605
Frank Seminara1992101207
Ryan Jensen2002401607
Alexis Rios20041201407
Daniel Cabrera20042901408
Ross Gload2004401408
David Bush2004101408
Nate Robertson2004101409
David DeJesus2004601409
Kevin McGlinchy1999101609
Mike Jones1981801409
Chad Fonville19951014010
Jason Simontacchi20021016010
Tony Fiore20021014010
Matt Holliday20043016010
Shingo Takatsu200444114011
Zack Greinke200416014011
Akinori Otsuka200423016011
Aaron Miles20046016011
Jack Curtis1961111611
Rocky Coppinger19966014011
Ben Rivera19921012012
Bob Hazle1957112412
Dennis Stark20021016012
Mitch Meluskey20007016013
Bobby Crosby20041382714013
Kaz Matsui20041016014
Brian Williams19921012014
Chuck Smith20001016014
Charlie Kerfeld198617012015
John Hudek199427014015
Kelly Wunsch20002014015
Terrmel Sledge20041016015

Shooty Babitt was a 22-year-old, sub-par fielding and hitting second baseman who bridged the Dave McKay and Davey Lopes eras in Oakland. He played in 52 of the A's 109 games that strike-shortened year, but yielded to McKay for the postseason, was not even apparently on the postseason roster, and never played in the majors again. He did have a great nickname though. Shooty is now a scout, I believe, in the D-Backs organization.

Now for the single-season leaders:

NameYrPts1stMax PtsWin Shares
George Bell1981201402
Brian Williams1992101203
Darin Erstad1996301403
Juan Pierre2000101603
Shooty Babitt1981401403
Jeff D'Amico1996101404
Mark Wohlers1992101204
Nelson Liriano1987101404
Scott Radinsky1990101404
John Buck2004101404
Alan Benes1996501405
Andy Benes1989301205
Bob Ojeda19813601405
Bob Walk1980101205
Brad Havens1981101405
Bud Smith2001101605
Dave Engle1981401405
Dick Groat195211245
Floyd Bannister197711245
Javy Lopez1994201405
Jeriome Robertson2003201605
Jermaine Dye1996601405
Mike Jones1981801405
Rich DeLucia1991701405
Ryan Jensen2002401605
Sidney Ponson1998101405

Buck is the only 2004 player on the list. George Bell took a couple of years, but you'll probably remember was a great player for a time. You have to love that the Benes brothers ended up right next to each other.

I'm actually more encouraged by this list than the career list. There are a number of players who must have shown flashes of if not greatness at least goodness even though their overall performance may not have been overwhelming. I;m talking about guys who became productive major-leagues like Bell, Javy Lopez, Jermaine Dye, Bob Ojeda, Bob Walk, Andy Benes, Floyd Bannister, Dick Groat, Juan Pierre, Sidney Ponson, and Nelson Liriano. There is also a good bit of the Brian Williams-Bud Smith variety of player, but someone got it right when he picked those guys.

The Buddies

The Buddy is named for Buddy Bell, who had one winning record in parts of six seasons as a manager, but always seemed to get decent support in the Manager of the Year award.

Win Shares don't really apply here. Let's try something new. First, let's look at the worst record for a manager who garnered at least a point in the MOY vote:

NameYrPtsMax1stWLPCT
Alan Trammell20031140043119.265
Buddy Bell19965140153109.327
Lou Piniella20031314006399.389
Jim Leyland1986112006498.395
Doc Edwards1987114003045.400
Don Baylor1993114006795.414
Felipe Alou2000116006795.414
Eric Wedge2003214006894.420
Terry Francona1997214006894.420
Stump Merrill1991114007191.438
Jim Fregosi1988114007190.441
Tony LaRussa19941014005163.447
Phil Garner1995414006579.451
Don Baylor1994814005364.453
Mike Scioscia2001114007587.463
Mike Hargrove19931014017686.469
Mike Hargrove1992414007686.469
Butch Hobson1994114005461.470
Jackie Moore1985414007785.475
Jim Lefebvre1990114007785.475

Someone felt bad for Trammell, Wedge, and Piniella last year. Somehow Mike Hargrove amassed more points in 1993 than 1992 after finishing with the exact same sub-.500 record as the year before.

Next are the worst career records for a MOY candidate:

NameFirst YrLast YrPts1stMaxWLPCT
Alan Trammell2003200310140115209.355
Tony Pena2003200313024140190260.422
Buddy Bell19962000575440345462.428
Stump Merrill1991199110140120155.436
Billy Gardner19841984484140330417.442
Jim Riggleman19951998615300486598.448
Bob Boone1995199530140371444.455
Doc Edwards1987198710140173207.455
Eric Wedge2003200450280148176.457
Hal McRae1991199490280399473.458
John Boles20002000150160205241.460
Jackie Moore1985198540140163190.462
Jeff Torborg1990199113423280634718.469
Butch Hobson1993199420280207232.472
Terry Francona19972004100280383427.473
Pat Corrales19861986181140572634.474
Frank Robinson19892003151234609131004.476
Don Baylor1993200114419580627689.476
Phil Garner199220001519720756828.477
Tom Kelly198720012473870011401244.478
Doug Rader19891990140280388417.482
Gene Mauch198519861011028019022037.483
Jim Fregosi19881993931128010281095.484
John McNamara198419861001342011601233.485
Jim Lefebvre19901991170280417442.485
Jim Leyland198619973364786010691131.486
Marcel Lachemann1995199550140161170.486
Dallas Green19941995151280454478.487
Bruce Bochy1995200415015600781821.488
Larry Bowa2001200111318160418435.490

And just for good measure, here are the managers who received some consideration even though their team's record was worse (or at the same) as the previous year:

NameYrPts1stMaxWLPCTPrev WPrev LPrev PCTDiff
Dusty Baker1994101405560.47810359.636-.158
Doc Edwards1987101403045.4008478.519-.119
Tony LaRussa1991201408478.51910359.636-.117
Davey Johnson1987301209270.56810854.667-.099
Joe Torre19992101409864.60511448.704-.099
Buddy Bell19965114053109.3276084.417-.090
Mike Hargrove19971321408675.5349962.615-.081
Mike Hargrove19962221409962.61510044.694-.080
Alan Trammell20031014043119.26555106.342-.076
Kevin Kennedy1996101408577.5258658.597-.073
Buck Showalter1995801407965.5497043.619-.071
Bob Boone1995301407074.4866451.557-.070
Doug Rader1990101408082.4949171.562-.068
Lou Piniella1988101404548.4848973.549-.066
Joe Torre2000501408774.5409864.605-.065
Sparky Anderson19883731408874.5439864.605-.062
Felipe Alou2004401609171.56210061.621-.059
Jimy Williams2000101408577.5259468.580-.056
Bobby Cox20004111609567.58610359.636-.049
Lou Piniella1986501409072.5569764.602-.047
Terry Collins19951101407668.5286649.574-.046
Bobby Cox1994301406846.59610458.642-.045
Jeff Torborg1991601408775.5379468.580-.043
Roger Craig1990201208577.5259270.568-.043
Bobby Cox20011221608874.5439567.586-.043
Mike Scioscia2001101407587.4638280.506-.043
Ken Macha20032601409666.59310359.636-.043
Dusty Baker20011001609072.5569765.599-.043
Eric Wedge2003201406894.4207488.457-.037
Jim Fregosi1988101407190.4417785.475-.034
Bobby Cox19962431409666.5939054.625-.032
Bobby Cox2004140221609666.59310161.623-.031
Tony LaRussa19895121409963.61110458.642-.031
John McNamara1985101408181.5008676.531-.031
Larry Dierker19994841609765.59910260.630-.031
Bob Lillis1984211208082.4948577.525-.031
Ron Gardenhire20034441409072.5569467.584-.028
Joe Morgan19911601408478.5198874.543-.025
Johnny Oates1993501408577.5258973.549-.025
Butch Hobson1994101405461.470