Baseball Toaster: Mike's Baseball Rants : How Does It Feel D-Backs? How Does It Feel to Be Back in First Place Again?

How Does It Feel D-Backs? How Does It Feel to Be Back in First Place Again?

2005-05-23 12:42

by Mike Carminati

[To the tune of the Hall & Oates classic "How Does It Feel to Be Back", their best until "Family Man".]

Everyone is talking about Ozzie Guillen and the White Sox as the surprise team so far this season. The ChiSox's success sure seems startling—OK, enough sibilance. However, the more precedent bending surprise has to be the reborn Arizona Diamondbacks—get it? Reborn…Phoenix?

The Diamondbacks were atrocious last year. They tied the second-year Mets (1962) for the 31st worst record in the "Modern" era (51-111 for a .315 winning percentage). In the expansion era (1961 to today), there have been just four teams with a worse record:

Team	Yr	W	L	PCT
New York Mets	1962	40	120	.250
Detroit Tigers	2003	43	119	.265
Philadelphia Phillies	1961	47	107	.305
New York Mets	1965	50	112	.309
Arizona Diamondbacks	2004	51	111	.315
New York Mets	1963	51	111	.315
San Diego Padres	1969	52	110	.321
Montreal Expos	1969	52	110	.321
New York Mets	1964	53	109	.327
Detroit Tigers	1996	53	109	.327

Now the Diamondbacks are in first place in the NL West, a half game ahead of the Padres. No one gave them a chance to finish much higher than fourth at the start of the season (I had them third). I still think that the Padres will win the division (they were my preseason pick). But the D-backs rush back to respectability could be unprecedented at least in the last 115 years.

Arizona's current record is 27-18 or exactly a .600 winning percentage. That translates into about 97 wins over the course of a 162-game schedule. Only three teams have improved to at least .600 after registering a season with a winning percentage no better than .315, and the last one was in 1890. Actually, the biggest one-season improvement in the last hundred years for a team with a .600 or better winning percentage was by—you guessed it—the D-Backs in their second season, 1999:

Worst to .600+	Yr	W	L	PCT	Pos	Prev Yr	W	L	PCT	Pos
Louisville Colonels	1890	88	44	.667	1	1889	27	111	.196	8
Cincinnati Reds	1878	37	23	.617	2	1877	15	42	.263	6
Hartford Dark Blues	1875	54	28	.659	3	1874	16	37	.302	7
Columbus Buckeyes	1884	69	39	.639	2	1883	32	65	.330	6
New York Giants	1903	84	55	.604	2	1902	48	88	.353	8
Brooklyn Superbas	1899	101	47	.682	1	1898	54	91	.372	10
Detroit Wolverines	1886	87	36	.707	2	1885	41	67	.380	6
Arizona Diamondbacks	1999	100	62	.617	1	1998	65	97	.401	5
Cincinnati Reds	1961	93	61	.604	1	1960	67	87	.435	6
Philadelphia Athletics	1909	95	58	.621	2	1908	68	85	.444	6
San Francisco Giants	1993	103	59	.636	2	1992	72	90	.444	5
Brooklyn Grooms	1892	95	59	.617	3	1891	61	76	.445	6
Brooklyn Bridegrooms	1888	88	52	.629	2	1887	60	74	.448	6
New York Mets	1969	100	62	.617	1	1968	73	89	.451	9
Chicago White Sox	1915	93	61	.604	3	1914	70	84	.455	7
New York Giants	1954	97	57	.630	1	1953	70	84	.455	5
Boston Braves	1914	94	59	.614	1	1913	69	82	.457	5
Chicago White Sox	1919	88	52	.629	1	1918	57	67	.460	6
Boston Red Sox	1946	104	50	.675	1	1945	71	83	.461	7
Detroit Tigers	1961	101	61	.623	2	1960	71	83	.461	6
Baltimore Orioles	1894	89	39	.695	1	1893	60	70	.462	8
St. Louis Browns	1883	65	33	.663	2	1882	37	43	.463	5
Anaheim Angels	2002	99	63	.611	2	2001	75	87	.463	3
Troy Haymakers	1872	15	10	.600	5	1871	13	15	.464	6
Washington Senators	1930	94	60	.610	2	1929	71	81	.467	5

Arizona has almost doubled its winning percentage in one season (90.4% improvement). If they can keep that up for an entire season, they would have the tenth best single-season improvement of all time and the best since 1898:

Team	Yr	W	L	PCT	Pos	Prev Yr	W	L	PCT	Pos	Ratio
Louisville Colonels	1890	88	44	.667	1	1889	27	111	.196	8	3.407
Pittsburgh Pirates	1891	55	80	.407	8	1890	23	113	.169	8	2.409
Cincinnati Reds	1878	37	23	.617	2	1877	15	42	.263	6	2.343
Hartford Dark Blues	1875	54	28	.659	3	1874	16	37	.302	7	2.181
St. Louis Perfectos	1899	84	67	.556	5	1898	39	111	.260	12	2.140
Baltimore Orioles	1884	63	43	.594	6	1883	28	68	.292	8	2.038
Philadelphia Quakers	1884	39	73	.348	6	1883	17	81	.173	8	2.007
Troy Trojans	1880	41	42	.494	4	1879	19	56	.253	8	1.950
Columbus Buckeyes	1884	69	39	.639	2	1883	32	65	.330	6	1.937
Cincinnati Reds	1877	15	42	.263	6	1876	9	56	.138	8	1.901
Detroit Wolverines	1886	87	36	.707	2	1885	41	67	.380	6	1.863
Boston Bees	1936	71	83	.461	6	1935	38	115	.248	8	1.856

All this may be enough to say that the D-Backs continuing to play at such a high level is a long shot at best. But I feel vindicated for saying in the offseason that they may have one of the fastest bounces back to respectability ever. Now, if could just justify picking the Indians second the White Sox fourth…

Comments

2005-05-23 14:34:12

1. Greg May

I think you have your positions backwards. Love your column.

2005-05-23 18:13:58

2. Mike Carminati

Oops...Fixed.

Thanks.