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In-D-scribable
2005-05-12 18:09
by Mike Carminati

Dontrelle Willis beat Roy Oswalt and the Astros, 2-1, yesterday in an old-fashioned pitchers duel. In the process, Willis ran his record to an incredible 7-0 in seven starts and lowered his major-league leading ERA to 1.08.

Mark Simon at Baseball Tonight found that Willis is just one win shy of the best starts in the last 90 years for pitchers under the age of 24 (Source: Elias Sports Bureau):

Year Pitcher Team Starts
2005 Dontrelle Willis Marlins 7
1981 Fernando Valenzuela Dodgers 8
1973 Roger Moret Red Sox 8
1945 Boo Ferriss Red Sox 8
1917 Babe Ruth Red Sox 8

When you look at his projections for the year, it gets even more impressive:

PeriodGGSCGSHO IP HRHRBBSO K/9 WL WHIP BAA ERA
20057732 50.0 34721040 7.20 70 0.88 0.19 1.08
2005--Proj33331410 238.0 162331048191 7.20 330 0.88 0.19 1.08
CAREER666674 407.2 39216735129321 7.09 3117 1.28 0.25 3.38

It gets all the more impressive when you consider that Willis was 10-11 with a 4.02 ERA last season. Let's say he wins twenty games this year and lowers his ERA by three full points from last season, however improbable that may be, he would be just the fourth man to go from a .500 or worse winning percentage one year to winning 20 the next while lowering his ERA by at least 3 runs. It hasn't been done since 1934:

NameYr1WL ERA Yr2WL ERA
Billy Taylor188347 5.39 18844316 2.10
George Haddock1890926 5.76 18913411 2.49
Lefty Grove193488 6.50 19352012 2.70

Given that 1.02 ERA is pretty much out of the question, how many pitchers have gone from .500 or worse to twenty wins while lowering their ERA by 2.50 runs? They have been a couple in recent history:

NameYr1WL ERA Yr2WL ERA
Esteban Loaiza2002910 5.71 2003219 2.90
Darryl Kile1999813 6.61 2000209 3.91
Dave McNally196777 4.54 19682210 1.95
Dick Ellsworth1962920 5.09 19632210 2.11
Roger Wolff1944415 4.99 19452010 2.12
Lefty Grove193488 6.50 19352012 2.70
George Haddock1890926 5.76 18913411 2.49
John Healy1889215 5.69 18902221 2.89
Kid Gleason1889915 5.58 18903817 2.63
Billy Taylor188347 5.39 18844316 2.10

Now, let's look at the even nuttier side to Willis's season. He has won every game that he's pitched: 7-0 in seven starts. The most games a pitcher has won in a season in which he won every game in which pitched was six. So don't be disappointed if he does not go 33-0:

NameYrWLGGSCGSHO IP ERA
Earl Hamilton1918606661 54.0 0.83
Max Lanier1946606662 56.0 1.93
Jim Abbott1998505500 31.7 4.55
Jack Taylor1898505550 41.0 2.20
Ed Cushman1884404442 36.0 1.00
Billy Campbell1907303330 21.0 2.14
Ed Walsh1915303331 27.0 1.33
Monty Montgomery1971303200 21.3 2.11
George Merritt1901303330 24.0 4.88
Warren McLaughlin1902303330 26.0 2.77

So let's say that he instead goes just 30-0. What are the most wins ever recorded by a pitcher in a season without a loss? Survey says 12:

NameYrWLGGSCGSHO IP ERA
Tom Zachary1929120261172 119.7 2.48
Dennis Lamp198511053100 105.7 3.32
Howie Krist194110037820 114.0 4.03
Frank DiPino19899067000 88.3 2.45
Joe Pate19269047200 113.0 2.71
Ken Holtzman196790121230 92.7 2.53
Arthur Rhodes20018071000 68.0 1.72
Grant Jackson19738045000 80.3 1.90
Kirk Rueter199380141410 85.7 2.73
Pat Mahomes19998039000 63.7 3.68
Rheal Cormier20038065000 84.7 1.70
Ted Wilks19468040400 95.0 3.41
Duster Mails1920709862 63.3 1.85
Eduardo Rodriguez19757043100 87.7 3.49
Mike Wallace19747031100 60.7 2.82
Pascual Perez198770101020 70.3 2.30
Pete Smith199270121121 79.0 2.05
Roy Thomas19857040000 93.7 3.36
Tim Burke19877055000 91.0 1.19
Tom Burgmeier19827040000 102.3 2.29
Tom Filer19857011900 48.7 3.88
Wes Stock19637047000 75.3 3.94

Next, Willis is on a pace to record 14 complete games, something that has not been done in seven years and that's been just once in 14 years. Here are the only guys to do it in the last twenty years:

NameYrWLGGSCGSHO IP ERA
Curt Schilling199815143535152 268.7 3.25
Jack McDowell199117103535153 253.7 3.41
Danny Jackson19882383535156 260.7 2.73
Dave Stewart198821123737142 275.7 3.23
Orel Hershiser19882383534158 267.0 2.26
Roger Clemens198818123535148 264.0 2.93
Bret Saberhagen198718103333154 257.0 3.36
Bruce Hurst198715133333153 238.7 4.41
Mark Langston198719133535143 272.0 3.84
Roger Clemens19872093636187 281.7 2.97
Teddy Higuera198718103535143 261.7 3.85
Bert Blyleven198617143636163 271.7 4.01
Fernando Valenzuela198621113434203 269.3 3.14
Jack Morris19862183535156 267.0 3.27
Mike Witt198618103434143 269.0 2.84
Teddy Higuera198620113434154 248.3 2.79
Tom Candiotti198616123634173 252.3 3.57
Bert Blyleven198517163737245 293.7 3.16
Charlie Hough198514163434141 250.3 3.31
Dwight Gooden19852443535168 276.7 1.53
Fernando Valenzuela198517103535145 272.3 2.45
John Tudor198521836361410 275.0 1.93
Mike Moore198517103534142 247.0 3.46

Finally, Willis is on course to record ten shutouts. Only 29 men have done that before and no one has done it in 19 years. Here they are:

NameYrWLGGSCGSHO IP ERA
John Tudor198521836361410 275.0 1.93
Jim Palmer1975231139382510 323.0 2.09
Bob Gibson196822934342813 304.7 1.12
Juan Marichal1965221339372410 295.3 2.13
Dean Chance196420946351511 278.3 1.65
Sandy Koufax196325540402011 311.0 1.88
Bob Lemon1948201443372010 293.7 2.82
Bob Feller1946261548423610 371.3 2.18
Mort Cooper194222737352210 278.7 1.78
Carl Hubbell1933231245332210 308.7 1.66
Pete Alexander1916331248453816 389.0 1.55
Dave Davenport1915221855463010 392.7 2.20
Pete Alexander1915311049423612 376.3 1.22
Walter Johnson191336748362911 346.0 1.14
Joe Wood191234543383510 344.0 1.91
Jack Coombs191031945383513 353.0 1.30
Christy Mathewson1908371156443411 390.7 1.43
Ed Walsh1908401566494211 464.0 1.42
Ed Walsh1906171341312410 278.3 1.88
Cy Young1904261643414010 380.0 1.97
Dave Foutz1886411659575511 504.0 2.11
Ed Morris1886412064636312 555.3 2.45
John Clarkson1885531670706810 623.0 1.85
Charley Radbourn1884591275737311 678.7 1.38
Jim McCormick1884402566656310 569.0 2.37
Pud Galvin1884462272727112 636.3 1.99
Tommy Bond1879431964645911 555.3 1.96
George Bradley1876451964646316 573.0 1.23
Comments
2005-05-13 06:54:14
1.   blubeard
You must really like Willis to go to all that trouble or you love stats.
2005-05-13 08:48:51
2.   Mike Carminati
It's the latter.
2005-05-15 09:41:39
3.   rbj
Whatever happened to that Ruth guy? It seemed like he had a promising pitching career.
2005-05-15 21:47:15
4.   Mike Carminati
He went into the candy bar business.

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