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Free to Be... Bonds and El Tiante, Part II
2005-04-11 22:15
by Mike Carminati

We've already seen who the best free agents were based on player performance after signing with a new club. However, I don't think that tells us the full story. When a team signs a free agent, the assumption is that he will perform based on his past performance and the compensation he derives is based on that assumption.

Sure, Barry Bonds has been ungodly since signing with the Giants but he's made between $4.5 and $18 M since signing. Are the some more moderately priced free agents whose performance, though not as high as Bonds, turns out to be a better bargain?

I took the data from the last entry and added the salary data from Doug Pappas' research. His data are only from 1985 on so the turn-of-the-century "jumpers" from the last study and early free agents get short shrift. However, it does allow us to measure every free agent contract over the last 20 years.

I prorated the total salary that each free agent received from his new team and prorated it per the average salary for the given year. Actually, I prorated it based on 25-man rosters given that the salary data contains many partial season players, usually far more than 25 per team. A free agent, at least an effective one, is assumed to perform at least as well as anyone commanding a major-league spot. So I upped the ante by basing the salary on average roster spot salary.

OK, just a little bit more Basil Exposition: After prorating the salary on average salary, I prorated the Win Shares and Win Shares Above Baseline by the prorated salary.

Anyway, here were the results. Here are the 50 best free agent signings based on WSAB per salary above average:

NameYrTeam WS WSAB Tot Salary # Seasons WS Pro WSAB Pro
Rodrigo Lopez2002BAL 32 18 $ 890,000 3 298.33 167.81
Jeff Zimmerman1998TEX 31 17 $ 757,500 3 279.43 153.24
Al Bumbry1979BAL 94 37 $ 160,000 1 279.73 110.11
Matt Herges1999LAN 20 9 $ 1,025,000 4 185.89 83.65
Greg McMichael1991ATL 45 25 $ 2,219,000 5 140.98 78.32
Jeff Shaw1996CIN 41 29 $ 1,750,000 3 109.72 76.27
Bobby Grich1977CAL 171 84 $ 1,200,000 2 135.35 66.49
Barry Bonds1993SFN 463 343 $ 122,689,882 12 89.75 66.49
Brendan Donnelly2001ANA 23 8 $ 700,000 2 183.95 63.98
Stew Cliburn1982CAL 13 8 $ 60,000 1 103.16 63.49
Lance Carter2002TBA 21 7 $ 620,000 2 189.63 63.21
Alfonso Soriano1998NYA 73 43 $ 7,460,000 4 106.78 62.90
Scott Stewart2001MON 22 8 $ 1,612,000 4 148.92 54.15
Giovanni Carrara2001LAN 22 7 $ 760,000 2 160.27 50.99
Dale Mohorcic1986TEX 23 11 $ 217,500 2 100.26 47.33
Craig Biggio1996HOU 225 135 $ 56,560,000 9 78.80 47.28
Dave Veres1992HOU 14 5 $ 434,000 3 130.76 46.70
Jeff Tam2000OAK 19 8 $ 1,890,000 4 104.27 43.90
Brian Daubach1999BOS 53 11 $ 4,185,000 6 191.55 39.76
Greg Maddux1993ATL 246 180 $ 108,450,000 12 53.94 39.47
Todd Frohwirth1991BAL 30 15 $ 1,370,000 3 75.90 37.95
Joe Borowski2002CHN 21 12 $ 2,645,000 3 65.88 37.64
Tom Candiotti1986CLE 79 47 $ 4,525,000 6 62.09 36.52
Brian Holton1985LAN 16 5 $ 125,000 2 116.30 36.34
Kevin Millar1998FLO 56 16 $ 7,535,000 7 125.08 35.74
Darrell May2002KCA 27 11 $ 2,575,000 3 87.00 35.44
Bruce Ruffin1993COL 44 22 $ 3,350,000 4 70.16 35.08
Tony Fiore2001MIN 10 4 $ 330,000 1 85.99 34.40
Mike Stanley1992NYA 60 24 $ 4,675,000 5 84.46 33.78
De Wayne Buice1986CAL 13 8 $ 212,500 2 54.87 33.77
Matt Stairs1996OAK 69 25 $ 8,820,000 6 90.05 32.63
Travis Harper1998TBA 18 3 $ 502,000 2 195.49 32.58
Carl Willis1991MIN 28 11 $ 1,325,000 3 81.42 31.99
Doug Jones1985CLE 61 38 $ 5,135,000 6 51.20 31.90
Jeff Fassero1991MON 65 32 $ 8,398,167 6 63.40 31.21
Salomon Torres2002PIT 19 6 $ 1,100,000 2 96.70 30.54
Jamie Moyer1997SEA 110 63 $ 38,500,000 8 52.69 30.17
Brian Bohanon1997NYN 13 5 $ 555,000 2 78.12 29.70
Doug Jones1999OAK 17 7 $ 1,000,000 2 71.63 29.50
Shigetoshi Hasegawa1997ANA 39 14 $ 6,165,000 6 81.24 29.16
Scott Hatteberg2002OAK 47 17 $ 4,950,000 3 78.78 28.50
Billy Taylor1994OAK 37 16 $ 4,442,500 5 67.05 28.29
Kevin Seitzer1992ML4 16 6 $ 818,000 3 74.63 27.99
Tony Phillips1990DET 109 59 $ 14,600,000 6 51.02 27.61
Anthony Telford1997MON 27 7 $ 2,620,000 5 104.52 27.10
Bill Landrum1989PIT 32 17 $ 2,147,500 4 50.86 27.02
Al Martin1992PIT 87 22 $ 10,493,167 8 106.71 26.98
Mike Williams1998PIT 28 10 $ 3,200,000 4 74.19 26.16
Bob Wells1999MIN 25 9 $ 4,060,000 5 72.34 26.04
Steve Finley1999ARI 113 56 $ 32,750,000 6 51.98 25.93

Not quite what we expected, eh? Dale Mohorcic? But maybe this can tell us something. The best free agents or at least best buys are marginal players who are signed for a modest amount but perform well during their stint with the new team. Yes, the Barry Bonds of the world are pretty good buys as well, but the high-profile free agents appear to be much bigger gamble to pay off. Then again, signing Mohorcic may not help get you fannies in seats.

Other entries in the Trade Series:

Mike: I'll Take Manhattan: Baseball's Most Lopsided Trades: Parts I, I (revised), II

A Quick One (Happy Mike)

Lee Even Stevens: Parts I, II—The Sexy Version

Cain and A-Rod—A Bling-Bling Rivalry: Parts I, II

Kansas City Blues: Parts I, II

Baseball's Most Lopsided Trades—The Revenge of Glenn Davis

Awe-Phil?: Parts I, II, III

Gone With the Draft

Organizational Skills, Part I, II

The Best of Drafts, The Worst of Drafts

Free to Be... Bonds and El Tiante, Part I

Studes: The Best and Worst Teams of the Trade

Smoltz for Alexander

The Biggest Deals of All Time

Sources:

Sean Lahman's Baseball Database

Retrosheet's Transaction Data

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