Baseball Toaster: Mike's Baseball Rants : Free to Be... Bonds and El Tiante, Part II

Free to Be... Bonds and El Tiante, Part II

2005-04-11 22:15

by Mike Carminati

We've already seen who the best free agents were based on player performance after signing with a new club. However, I don't think that tells us the full story. When a team signs a free agent, the assumption is that he will perform based on his past performance and the compensation he derives is based on that assumption.

Sure, Barry Bonds has been ungodly since signing with the Giants but he's made between $4.5 and $18 M since signing. Are the some more moderately priced free agents whose performance, though not as high as Bonds, turns out to be a better bargain?

I took the data from the last entry and added the salary data from Doug Pappas' research. His data are only from 1985 on so the turn-of-the-century "jumpers" from the last study and early free agents get short shrift. However, it does allow us to measure every free agent contract over the last 20 years.

I prorated the total salary that each free agent received from his new team and prorated it per the average salary for the given year. Actually, I prorated it based on 25-man rosters given that the salary data contains many partial season players, usually far more than 25 per team. A free agent, at least an effective one, is assumed to perform at least as well as anyone commanding a major-league spot. So I upped the ante by basing the salary on average roster spot salary.

OK, just a little bit more Basil Exposition: After prorating the salary on average salary, I prorated the Win Shares and Win Shares Above Baseline by the prorated salary.

Anyway, here were the results. Here are the 50 best free agent signings based on WSAB per salary above average:

Name	Yr	Team	WS	WSAB	Tot Salary	# Seasons	WS Pro	WSAB Pro
Rodrigo Lopez	2002	BAL	32	18	$ 890,000	3	298.33	167.81
Jeff Zimmerman	1998	TEX	31	17	$ 757,500	3	279.43	153.24
Al Bumbry	1979	BAL	94	37	$ 160,000	1	279.73	110.11
Matt Herges	1999	LAN	20	9	$ 1,025,000	4	185.89	83.65
Greg McMichael	1991	ATL	45	25	$ 2,219,000	5	140.98	78.32
Jeff Shaw	1996	CIN	41	29	$ 1,750,000	3	109.72	76.27
Bobby Grich	1977	CAL	171	84	$ 1,200,000	2	135.35	66.49
Barry Bonds	1993	SFN	463	343	$ 122,689,882	12	89.75	66.49
Brendan Donnelly	2001	ANA	23	8	$ 700,000	2	183.95	63.98
Stew Cliburn	1982	CAL	13	8	$ 60,000	1	103.16	63.49
Lance Carter	2002	TBA	21	7	$ 620,000	2	189.63	63.21
Alfonso Soriano	1998	NYA	73	43	$ 7,460,000	4	106.78	62.90
Scott Stewart	2001	MON	22	8	$ 1,612,000	4	148.92	54.15
Giovanni Carrara	2001	LAN	22	7	$ 760,000	2	160.27	50.99
Dale Mohorcic	1986	TEX	23	11	$ 217,500	2	100.26	47.33
Craig Biggio	1996	HOU	225	135	$ 56,560,000	9	78.80	47.28
Dave Veres	1992	HOU	14	5	$ 434,000	3	130.76	46.70
Jeff Tam	2000	OAK	19	8	$ 1,890,000	4	104.27	43.90
Brian Daubach	1999	BOS	53	11	$ 4,185,000	6	191.55	39.76
Greg Maddux	1993	ATL	246	180	$ 108,450,000	12	53.94	39.47
Todd Frohwirth	1991	BAL	30	15	$ 1,370,000	3	75.90	37.95
Joe Borowski	2002	CHN	21	12	$ 2,645,000	3	65.88	37.64
Tom Candiotti	1986	CLE	79	47	$ 4,525,000	6	62.09	36.52
Brian Holton	1985	LAN	16	5	$ 125,000	2	116.30	36.34
Kevin Millar	1998	FLO	56	16	$ 7,535,000	7	125.08	35.74
Darrell May	2002	KCA	27	11	$ 2,575,000	3	87.00	35.44
Bruce Ruffin	1993	COL	44	22	$ 3,350,000	4	70.16	35.08
Tony Fiore	2001	MIN	10	4	$ 330,000	1	85.99	34.40
Mike Stanley	1992	NYA	60	24	$ 4,675,000	5	84.46	33.78
De Wayne Buice	1986	CAL	13	8	$ 212,500	2	54.87	33.77
Matt Stairs	1996	OAK	69	25	$ 8,820,000	6	90.05	32.63
Travis Harper	1998	TBA	18	3	$ 502,000	2	195.49	32.58
Carl Willis	1991	MIN	28	11	$ 1,325,000	3	81.42	31.99
Doug Jones	1985	CLE	61	38	$ 5,135,000	6	51.20	31.90
Jeff Fassero	1991	MON	65	32	$ 8,398,167	6	63.40	31.21
Salomon Torres	2002	PIT	19	6	$ 1,100,000	2	96.70	30.54
Jamie Moyer	1997	SEA	110	63	$ 38,500,000	8	52.69	30.17
Brian Bohanon	1997	NYN	13	5	$ 555,000	2	78.12	29.70
Doug Jones	1999	OAK	17	7	$ 1,000,000	2	71.63	29.50
Shigetoshi Hasegawa	1997	ANA	39	14	$ 6,165,000	6	81.24	29.16
Scott Hatteberg	2002	OAK	47	17	$ 4,950,000	3	78.78	28.50
Billy Taylor	1994	OAK	37	16	$ 4,442,500	5	67.05	28.29
Kevin Seitzer	1992	ML4	16	6	$ 818,000	3	74.63	27.99
Tony Phillips	1990	DET	109	59	$ 14,600,000	6	51.02	27.61
Anthony Telford	1997	MON	27	7	$ 2,620,000	5	104.52	27.10
Bill Landrum	1989	PIT	32	17	$ 2,147,500	4	50.86	27.02
Al Martin	1992	PIT	87	22	$ 10,493,167	8	106.71	26.98
Mike Williams	1998	PIT	28	10	$ 3,200,000	4	74.19	26.16
Bob Wells	1999	MIN	25	9	$ 4,060,000	5	72.34	26.04
Steve Finley	1999	ARI	113	56	$ 32,750,000	6	51.98	25.93

Not quite what we expected, eh? Dale Mohorcic? But maybe this can tell us something. The best free agents or at least best buys are marginal players who are signed for a modest amount but perform well during their stint with the new team. Yes, the Barry Bonds of the world are pretty good buys as well, but the high-profile free agents appear to be much bigger gamble to pay off. Then again, signing Mohorcic may not help get you fannies in seats.

Other entries in the Trade Series:

Mike: I'll Take Manhattan: Baseball's Most Lopsided Trades: Parts I, I (revised), II

A Quick One (Happy Mike)

Lee Even Stevens: Parts I, II—The Sexy Version

Cain and A-Rod—A Bling-Bling Rivalry: Parts I, II

Kansas City Blues: Parts I, II

Baseball's Most Lopsided Trades—The Revenge of Glenn Davis

Awe-Phil?: Parts I, II, III

Gone With the Draft

Organizational Skills, Part I, II

The Best of Drafts, The Worst of Drafts

Free to Be... Bonds and El Tiante, Part I