Baseball Toaster: Mike's Baseball Rants : The Halves and the Halves Not, Part II

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Ch-Ch-Changes

So how precipitous was the Braves second-half turnaround when put in a historical context? Let's take a look at the top 25 or so second-half improvements in baseball history (or at least since 1933) based on winning percentage improvement:

Team	Yr	Diff	1st W	1st L	1st PCT	1st GB	2nd W	2nd L	2nd PCT	2nd GB
Philadelphia Phillies	1997	.289	24	61	.282	32	44	33	.571	1
St. Louis Browns	1935	.279	19	50	.275	25	46	37	.554	4.5
Oakland Athletics	2001	.268	44	43	.506	19	58	17	.773	0
St. Louis Cardinals	1940	.260	27	40	.403	18	57	29	.663	0
Los Angeles Dodgers	1979	.236	36	57	.387	17.5	43	26	.623	0
New York Mets	1995	.224	25	44	.362	19	44	31	.587	2
Detroit Tigers	1944	.223	36	42	.462	8.5	52	24	.684	0
Atlanta Braves	2004	.217	45	42	.517	1	36	13	.735	0
Houston Astros	2000	.215	30	57	.345	21	42	33	.560	2
Brooklyn Dodgers	1936	.213	24	50	.324	22	43	37	.538	9.5
Boston Red Sox	1996	.213	36	49	.424	16	49	28	.636	0
Florida Marlins	1995	.208	24	43	.358	19	43	33	.566	3.5
Oakland Athletics	1986	.206	34	56	.378	15.5	42	30	.583	0.5
Cleveland Indians	1973	.205	35	63	.357	20.5	36	28	.563	7
Washington Senators (1901-60)	1941	.199	26	47	.356	21.5	45	36	.556	8.5
New York Yankees	1984	.198	36	46	.439	20	51	29	.638	0
Minnesota Twins	2003	.194	44	49	.473	7.5	46	23	.667	0
Philadelphia Phillies	1952	.192	35	40	.467	17.5	52	27	.658	0
New York Giants	1950	.191	34	40	.459	10.5	52	28	.650	0
Chicago White Sox	1998	.185	35	51	.407	15.5	45	31	.592	0
Toronto Blue Jays	2002	.184	34	52	.395	20.5	44	32	.579	5
Baltimore Orioles	1975	.180	41	44	.482	8	49	25	.662	0
Atlanta Braves	1993	.178	50	39	.562	9	54	19	.740	0
San Francisco Giants	1994	.177	39	50	.438	7.5	16	10	.615	0
Boston Red Sox	1948	.177	39	35	.527	6.5	57	24	.704	0
Chicago Cubs	1935	.176	40	32	.556	9.5	60	22	.732	0
New York Mets	2001	.176	38	51	.427	13	44	29	.603	0
Chicago White Sox	1983	.175	40	37	.519	3.5	59	26	.694	0

The 2004 Braves are eighth (stats as of Monday). Surprisingly the last-place 1997 Phils had the greatest percent change in the second half. However, the went from dreadful to pretty good, except that the bad far outweighed the good. The miraculous 2001 A's are the only team ahead of the 2004 Braves to post at least a .500 record in the first half, like the Braves.

Now, let's compare this year's second-half failures to the all-time worst:

Team	Yr	Diff	1st W	1st L	1st PCT	1st GB	2nd W	2nd L	2nd PCT	2nd GB
Philadelphia Athletics	1943	-.239	34	44	.436	11.5	15	61	.197	37.5
Chicago Cubs	1977	-.237	54	35	.607	0	27	46	.370	22.5
Minnesota Twins	2001	-.232	55	32	.632	0	30	45	.400	11
Milwaukee Brewers (1970-97)	1975	-.225	46	42	.523	4.5	22	52	.297	27
Washington Senators (1901-60)	1949	-.225	33	42	.440	16	17	62	.215	38.5
Milwaukee Brewers (1998-)	2004	-.223	45	41	.523	8.5	15	35	.300	23
Cleveland Indians	1941	-.221	46	31	.597	3.5	29	48	.377	22.5
Detroit Tigers	1995	-.218	37	33	.529	3	23	51	.311	24
New York Giants	1940	-.207	40	28	.588	5.5	32	52	.381	24
Chicago White Sox	1951	-.207	49	29	.628	0	32	44	.421	19
Detroit Tigers	1975	-.207	39	47	.453	10.5	18	55	.247	30.5
California Angels	1983	-.205	42	36	.538	2	28	56	.333	30.5
Cincinnati Reds	2004	-.201	47	41	.534	7.5	16	32	.333	21
New York Mets	1991	-.192	46	34	.575	2.5	31	50	.383	18
New York Yankees	1973	-.187	57	44	.564	0	23	38	.377	18.5
Cincinnati Reds	1991	-.184	44	36	.550	5	30	52	.366	24.5
New York Giants	1935	-.184	48	21	.696	0	43	41	.512	18
Montreal Expos	2000	-.179	42	42	.500	8	25	53	.321	22
New York Mets	2004	-.179	44	43	.506	2	16	33	.327	20
Philadelphia Phillies	1995	-.179	39	29	.574	4.5	30	46	.395	16.5
Houston Astros	1966	-.179	45	40	.529	8	27	50	.351	20
San Diego Padres	1982	-.174	50	36	.581	2	31	45	.408	15
New York Giants	1953	-.173	43	37	.538	6.5	27	47	.365	28.5
Texas Rangers	1983	-.171	44	34	.564	0	33	51	.393	25.5
Baltimore Orioles	2002	-.169	42	43	.494	12	25	52	.325	24.5
Baltimore Orioles	1986	-.169	46	41	.529	10	27	48	.360	17
New York Giants	1938	-.168	45	25	.643	0	38	42	.475	11
Boston Red Sox	2001	-.167	51	36	.586	1.5	31	43	.419	12
Cincinnati Reds	1970	-.164	62	26	.705	0	40	34	.541	3.5
Boston Red Sox	1978	-.162	57	26	.687	0	42	38	.525	12.5

I'm sorry, I had to go until the '78 Red Sox. Anyway, we can be proud. The 2004 Reds, Mets, and Brewers all made the list. There still is a most of a month left in the season, but all are good bets to stay there. And the Reds just renewed Dave Miley's contract?!?

Playoff Ch-Ch-Changes

OK, back to the biggest second-half improvement. To put a finer point on the issue, let's just look at teams that made the playoffs:

Team	Yr	Diff	1st W	1st L	1st PCT	1st GB	2nd W	2nd L	2nd PCT	2nd GB	Tot W	Tot L	Tot PCT
Oakland Athletics	2001	.268	44	43	.506	19	58	17	.773	0	102	60	.630
Minnesota Twins	2003	.194	44	49	.473	7.5	46	23	.667	0	90	72	.556
Atlanta Braves	1993	.178	50	39	.562	9	54	19	.740	0	104	58	.642
Chicago Cubs	1935	.176	40	32	.556	9.5	60	22	.732	0	100	54	.649
Chicago White Sox	1983	.175	40	37	.519	3.5	59	26	.694	0	99	63	.611
New York Yankees	1995	.174	30	36	.455	8	49	29	.628	0	79	65	.549
Arizona Diamondbacks	1999	.173	48	41	.539	2.5	52	21	.712	0	100	62	.617
St. Louis Cardinals	1942	.171	43	29	.597	8.5	63	19	.768	0	106	48	.688
New York Yankees	1977	.171	50	42	.543	3	50	20	.714	0	100	62	.617
Atlanta Braves	1991	.169	39	40	.494	9.5	55	28	.663	0	94	68	.580
Kansas City Royals	1981	.166	20	30	.400	12	30	23	.566	0	50	53	.485
St. Louis Cardinals	2001	.158	43	43	.500	8	50	26	.658	0	93	69	.574
St. Louis Cardinals	1964	.157	39	40	.494	10	54	29	.651	0	93	69	.574
Pittsburgh Pirates	1974	.154	45	49	.479	3.5	43	25	.632	0	88	74	.543
New York Giants	1951	.151	44	36	.550	8	54	23	.701	0	98	59	.624
Oakland Athletics	2002	.148	50	38	.568	5	53	21	.716	0	103	59	.636
Toronto Blue Jays	1989	.144	42	45	.483	7	47	28	.627	0	89	73	.549
New York Mets	1973	.137	42	51	.452	7.5	40	28	.588	0	82	79	.509
Brooklyn Dodgers	1953	.136	50	31	.617	0	55	18	.753	0	105	49	.682
New York Yankees	1978	.136	46	38	.548	12	54	25	.684	0	100	63	.613
Pittsburgh Pirates	1979	.134	46	39	.541	4	52	25	.675	0	98	64	.605
Houston Astros	1981	.131	28	29	.491	8	33	20	.623	0	61	49	.555
Houston Astros	1986	.128	47	41	.534	1	49	25	.662	0	96	66	.593
New York Yankees	1994	.126	50	35	.588	0	20	8	.714	0	70	43	.619
Kansas City Royals	1977	.126	51	38	.573	2.5	51	22	.699	0	102	60	.630
San Francisco Giants	1987	.122	44	44	.500	3	46	28	.622	0	90	72	.556
Chicago White Sox	1993	.121	45	41	.523	0	49	27	.645	0	94	68	.580
San Francisco Giants	2000	.121	46	39	.541	3.5	51	26	.662	0	97	65	.599
New York Giants	1936	.120	39	34	.534	6.5	53	28	.654	0	92	62	.597
Montreal Expos	1994	.120	54	33	.621	0	20	7	.741	0	74	40	.649
Chicago White Sox	1959	.120	43	35	.551	2	51	25	.671	0	94	60	.610
Cincinnati Reds	1979	.116	48	46	.511	6	42	25	.627	0	90	71	.559
Florida Marlins	2003	.111	49	46	.516	13	42	25	.627	0	91	71	.562

I extended the list down to the 2003 Marlins to illustrate that they were not all that unique. The 2004 Braves would be second on that list, not too shabby.

Comeback on Your GB

Another way to look at this issue is to evaluate the teams based on the number of games back they were at the half. Here are the teams that overcame the biggest deficits to win a playoff berth (wild cards included):

1st Half GB	Team	Yr	Wild Card
19	Oakland Athletics	2001	Y
13	Florida Marlins	2003	Y
11.5	New York Yankees	1978
11	Boston Red Sox	1998	Y
10	St. Louis Cardinals	1964
9.5	Atlanta Braves	1991
9.5	Chicago Cubs	1935
9	Atlanta Braves	1993
9	Boston Red Sox	1988
8.5	St. Louis Cardinals	1942
8	New York Giants	1951
8	New York Yankees	1995	Y
8	St. Louis Cardinals	2001	Y
7.5	Kansas City Royals	1985
7.5	Minnesota Twins	2003
7.5	New York Mets	1973
7	New York Yankees	1997	Y
7	Toronto Blue Jays	1989
6.5	Florida Marlins	1997	Y
6.5	New York Giants	1936
6	Baltimore Orioles	1996	Y
6	Boston Red Sox	1967
6	Chicago Cubs	1938
6	Cincinnati Reds	1979
5.5	Cincinnati Reds	1973

Based on this criterion, the Braves second-half surge does not look so unique. They were just a game behind the Phils at the All-Star break. However, the Red Sox were seven back. If they overcome the Yankees, that would represent a pretty successful second-half comeback. By the way, you probably knew that the '78 Yankees would top the list (ignoring wild cards).

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Phils and Rangers have both fallen from first to third. Here are the greatest collapses based on how far a team fell in the second half. All of these teams were leading division (or were tied for the division lead) at the break:

Team	Yr	1st Half PCT	Yr PCT	Final Position
Chicago White Sox	1984	.524	.457	5t
Chicago Cubs	1973	.531	.478	5
Montreal Expos	1989	.563	.500	4
New York Yankees	1973	.564	.494	4
Toronto Blue Jays	1983	.566	.549	4
Cincinnati Reds	1965	.576	.549	4
Chicago White Sox	1967	.588	.549	4
Chicago Cubs	1977	.607	.500	4
New York Yankees	1987	.618	.549	4
Chicago White Sox	1951	.628	.526	4

26 other teams fell into third in the second half, so the Phils and Rangers are in good company.

To be continued…

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