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Derek and the Dominoes
2004-05-21 23:53
by Mike Carminati

Derek Jeter is having a bad season.

Wait, that's an understatement. Jeter is having an awful season. As of Thursday, his batting average (.194) was 120 points below his career average, his on-base percentage (.255) was 130 points below his career average, his slugging average (.288) was almost 180 points below his career average, and his OPS (.544) was a whopping 300 points below his career average. And that's after going 2-for-5 with a home run on Thursday (and 1-for-3 so far tonight).

He has been batting mostly leadoff for the Yankees but occasionally has been moved down to second when Kenny Lofton has been used in the leadoff spot. Along the way, he has collected 170 at-bats, which are the most on the team and project to 706 for the full season, one more than Willie Wilson's 1980 record for at-bats in a season. He also projects to 133 strikeouts, which would be his all-time high, and 45 walks, which would be his all-time, full-season low (he had 43 in 119 games last year).

His numbers as a leadoff hitter are even worse and he has been, in many ways, the worst leadoff hitter in the majors this year. Here are the worst leadoff hitters in the majors by batting average (qualifiers only):

PlayerABRHHRRBISBCSBBBAOBPSLGOPS
D. Jeter1141120210229.175.254.263.517
D. Jimenez13119263142222.198.316.313.629
T. Redman130132918213.223.237.308.545
K. Matsui13016303111215.231.308.362.670
M. Byrd12814302152110.234.310.336.646


(Michael Young's .357 is the best.)

Here are the worst by on-base percentage:

PlayerABRHHRRBISBCSBBBAOBPSLGOPS
T. Redman130132918213.223.237.308.545
D. Jeter1141120210229.175.254.263.517
M. Kotsay12911310113110.240.296.279.575
K. Matsui13016303111215.231.308.362.670
M. Byrd12814302152110.234.310.336.646

Here are the worst by slugging average:

PlayerABRHHRRBISBCSBBBAOBPSLGOPS
D. Jeter1141120210229.175.254.263.517
M. Kotsay12911310113110.240.296.279.575
D. Eckstein138163507439.254.322.290.612
T. Redman130132918213.223.237.308.545
D. Jimenez13119263142222.198.316.313.629

Here are the worst by OPS:

PlayerABRHHRRBISBCSBBBAOBPSLGOPS
D. Jeter1141120210229.175.254.263.517
T. Redman130132918213.223.237.308.545
M. Kotsay12911310113110.240.296.279.575
D. Eckstein138163507439.254.322.290.612
D. Jimenez13119263142222.198.316.313.629

So Jeter is not the worst in OBP, which is probably the most important category for leadoff hitters, but is so much worse in the others and is in the top, or bottom, two in every ratio category, that that he makes up for it.

The Yankees' .184 batting average from the leadoff spot is the worst in the majors. They are second worst in OBP (.264) to the Royals (.249), worst in slugging (.287) and second worst again to KC in OPS (.550 to .548).

Given that he has underachieved to such a great degree, I am surprised that the Yankees have been able to hang so close to the Red Sox. It also makes me wonder how truly awful Jeter's quarter of a season has been and what the alternatives for the Yankees could be.

I made a list of all players with at least 400 plate appearances and with ratios not much better than Jeter's: a batting average no higher than .200, an OBP no greater than .260, a slugging average no greater than .290, and an OPS no greater than .550. I found 33 players all-time. The last time it had been done was 25 years ago by the touchstone of poor performance, Mario Mendoza. Here they all are, listed in reverse chronological order:

NameYrTPABAOBPSLUGOPSPOS
Mario Mendoza1979401.198.216.249.466SS
Paul Blair1976413.197.245.264.509CF
Tim Cullen1971443.191.252.258.5102B-SS
Zoilo Versalles1968436.196.244.266.510SS
Bobby Wine1967400.190.249.267.516SS
Zoilo Versalles1967626.200.249.282.531SS
Ed Brinkman1965491.185.251.257.508SS
Bob Lillis1963496.198.229.237.466SS
Skeeter Webb1945449.199.254.238.492SS
Jim Levey1933567.195.237.240.477SS
Joe Dugan1918447.195.230.258.488SS
Oscar Stanage1914441.193.242.233.474C
Eddie Zimmerman1911469.185.249.264.5133B
Jimmy Williams1909415.195.257.235.4922B
Billy Sullivan1908476.191.235.228.463C
Billy Maloney1908402.195.255.273.528CF
Bobby Byrne1908490.191.238.212.4503B
Lee Tannehill1906428.183.254.220.4733B
Gus Dundon1905406.192.248.228.4762B
Pete Childs1902447.194.256.206.4622B
John Gochnauer1902506.185.247.237.485SS
Bill Hallman1901525.185.238.235.4732B
Jim Canavan1892487.166.248.239.4882B
Jack Boyle1892476.183.252.239.491C-1B
Henry Easterday1888437.190.256.259.516SS
Harry Lyons1888522.194.230.259.488CF
Bill Greenwood1888445.191.256.227.4842B
Joe Gerhardt1886448.190.230.249.4792B
John Cahill1886472.199.214.268.482RF
Jim Lillie1886427.175.197.197.394LF
Milt Scott1886515.190.239.242.4811B
Joe Gerhardt1885423.155.203.195.3992B
Charlie Bastian1885424.167.236.252.488SS

I listed position to see where, well, basically the pattern that fell out. The vast majority since World War I are shortstops though it's odd that there aren't that many before that. Jeter is, of course, a shortstop. However, he has been far from one in the Mario Mendoza mold. Jeter has always been known more for his offense than his defense, which is openly reviled in most baseball analysis.

One other thing to notice from the list is that no one has nearly as many at-bats as Jeter is projected to have. Given that a) Torre has used him almost exclusively in the top two spots in the lineup, b) the Yankees have no viable alternatives at short (short of moving A-Rod to short and their troubles to third), and c) Jeter is making $18+ million per year, I see no reason why he won't reach the projection. Jeter's project total plate appearances would be around 776. There isn't anyone on the list within 150 plate appearances of the projection (Zoilo Versalles is the closest at 626).

That begs the question of whether Jeter would be the worst batter to ever collect so many at-bats if he continues at the current pace. So I retrieved all the batters who have ever collected at least 650 at-bats all-time. There were 190. Then I compared their ratio stats to Jeter's

Here are the five worst by batting average:

NameYrABBAOBPSLUGOPS
Tom Brown1892660.227.284.285.569
Frankie Crosetti1939656.233.315.332.647
Don Kessinger1968655.240.283.287.570
Woody Williams1944653.240.290.289.580
Joe Carter1989651.243.292.465.757

Here are the five worst by on-base:

NameYrABBAOBPSLUGOPS
Rennie Stennett1976654.257.277.341.618
Alfredo Griffin1980653.254.283.349.632
Don Kessinger1968655.240.283.287.570
Tom Brown1892660.227.284.285.569
Bill Virdon1962663.247.286.345.631

The five worst by slugging:

NameYrABBAOBPSLUGOPS
Tom Brown1892660.227.284.285.569
Don Kessinger1968655.240.283.287.570
Woody Williams1944653.240.290.289.580
Larry Bowa1971650.249.293.292.586
Sandy Alomar Sr.1970672.251.302.293.596

And by OPS:

NameYrABBAOBPSLUGOPS
Tom Brown1892660.227.284.285.569
Don Kessinger1968655.240.283.287.570
Woody Williams1944653.240.290.289.580
Larry Bowa1971650.249.293.292.586
Horace Clarke1970686.251.286.309.595

Jeter is much worse than the worst player in everything but slugging average. However, you'll say that projecting Jeter's season out based on the worst two months of baseball probably of his career is unfair. Jeter is a career .300 hitter and one that many, including me, expected to have a Hall-of-Fame worthy career. I agree that it's a safe bet that he will improve but by how much?

Let's assume that Jeter gets the projected at-bats but hits his career average the rest of the way. He would finish the season at .285. That's not too bad, right? Let's say that he matches his career high of .349 from 1999. His batting average would be .312, one point below his career average.

Maybe that's why Torre is sticking with Jeter. He leads off two-thirds of the time. It does seem insane to turn to Jeter for so many at-bats per game when Jorge Posada, their best hitter so far, is batting sixth. Or maybe Torre doesn't feel that anyone else could step into the role.

Well, I disagree. I think the Yankees have three viable though unconventional candidates. First, why not try A-Rod in the leadoff spot? He owns a .381 career OBP and a .364 one this year. He also leads the team in steals with 6, twice as many as runner-up Jeter. You say that the Yankees need him too much in the third spot.

OK, so how about Hidecki Matsui? Matsui has a .393 OBP this year and a .360 OBP in his two-year career. Well, if you don't like using your erstwhile slow Japanese slugger as Brian Downing-type leadoff hitter, then how about Gary Sheffield?

Sheffield's power numbers are down this year and he is batting fifth. However, he does have a .399 OBP this year and .401 OBP for his career. Move him to leadoff and put Posada in the five hole. Not thrilled with a 35-year-old leadoff hitter?

Well, they are not thrilling choices but the Yankees have to do something. This is more than a slight slump. Jeter is 29 and should be enjoying his best years. The more that his current woes continue, the more it calls into question his upturn last season. Jeter had been continually falling from the heights of his great 1999 season until he reversed the trend in his abbreviated 2003 season. What if 2003 was a fluke "career" year at the typical age of 28? Maybe Jeter won't improve that much offensively.

Of course, with the rumors starting to swirl about New York acquiring Carlos Beltran, the may solve their problem through a trade. I'm not sure if the Yankees have enough spare parts to acquire the erstwhile Royal, but with his speed he could easily fill the leadoff hole. Maybe they can also package Kenny Lofton and/or a lefty middle reliever (Gabe White?) to the Phils to spell the beleaguered Rheal Cormier, they could also pry lose a dependable second baseman in Placido Polanco, thereby putting the Wilson/Cairo show on ice. This is of course speculation, but Chase Utley has started to hit the way the Phils have always expected him to (.964 OPS in his callup and three big hits, including a home run, and three RBI tonight) and it may not be possible or at least fair to send the 25-year-old back down.

The order could be Beltran, Polanco, A-Rod, Giambi, Sheffield, Posada, Matsui, Williams/Sierra (DH), and Jeter. It's not too respectful of the Yankee recent history, but it does remove a sinkhole from the top of the lineup.

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